A nonpartisan election handicapper updated the rating for the Montana Senate race on Thursday, shifting the state toward Republicans and increasing the likelihood that the GOP will win back control of the Senate in November.

The Cook Political Report is moving Montana into the “lean Republican” category from “toss-up.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics changed the race projections toward Republicans in Montana last week.

The battle between vulnerable incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, has become one of the most-watched races this cycle since the result could tip control of the Senate from Democrats to Republicans. 

In rationalizing the change in ratings, the group pointed to recent polls that show Sheehy opening a “small but consistent lead” despite the relatively few public polls in Montana over the last few months. 

A poll released last Thursday showed Tester down by 8 percentage points to Sheehy, at 49% to 41%. The average of recent polls shows Tester down by roughly 4.5 points. Private Republican polling also shows Sheehy with a leg up on Tester, giving GOP Senate sources increasing confidence.

“I’ve seen a number of private polling that is similar to the public polling — I think Tester is going to lose, I feel very certain of that,” a former Senate GOP leadership aide said. 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has a 51-seat advantage and the ability to tap Vice President Kamala Harris for any tiebreaking votes. He is already expected to lose one seat in West Virginia with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV). Holding on to Tester’s seat in another red state former President Donald Trump is bound to carry is key to retaining the majority.

In the past, Tester has proven to be a difficult candidate to oust for Republicans. In 2006, Tester beat an incumbent Republican senator. He also easily defeated GOP challengers in 2012 and 2018. However, Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report specifies that the last time Tester was on the ballot in a presidential cycle, he was running far ahead of President Barack Obama. 

“The last time Tester was on the ballot in a presidential cycle, the then-freshman senator outran Barack Obama by 7 points even as Mitt Romney won the state by 13 points,” Taylor wrote. “It’s likely that Trump hits his 2020 margin of 16 points — or even higher — which means Tester would need to outrun the top of the ticket by double digits.”

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Tester has been in office since 2006 and has won reelection twice despite the state traditionally voting Republican. Montana, the home state of National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT), is the GOP’s top pick-up target. Daines personally recruited Sheehy, who is a military veteran and businessman.

Democrats are banking on an abortion-rights ballot measure that could help Tester secure a fourth term in the traditionally red state. To keep the majority, Democrats must defend Montana, where Trump won by 16 points in 2020, and another seven competitive seats.