Ex-Obama adviser David Axelrod expressed shock that former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is shattering expectations in his senate battle against a Democratic official. 

Hogan is a popular Maryland Republican who served as the state’s governor for two terms. After leaving office in 2023, he threw himself into a challenge against Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD).

Axelrod, a top Democratic strategist who served as counselor to former President Barack Obama, took to social media on Wednesday to weigh in on the closely-watched senate race. 

“It’s testimony to fmr @GovLarryHogan’s popularity in MD that he’s in a tie race for the U.S. Senate, according to a new Anzalone and Fabrizio poll, while @KamalaHarris is beating Trump by 32 points,” Axelrod admired in a post to X. 

A new survey from AARP put the pair in a dead heat, polling at 46% each. Cardin secured a landslide Democratic victory in his last election, winning by nearly 35 points. This year’s razor-thin race between Hogan and Cardin’s deemed successor, Alsobrooks, has come as a surprise to political pundits such as Axelrod. 

Hogan reacted to the bi-partisan AARP poll earlier this week, admitting that “we are the underdogs” while hailing the “120,000 voters” the campaign has contacted. 

“The palpable enthusiasm of Maryland voters for independent leadership has given our campaign real momentum, and the chance to defy the odds,” he said in a statement.

The Senate stands closely divided as Democrats hold a slim two-seat majority.  Hogan’s gains have captured heavy scrutiny as he closes the gap with Alsobrooks and inching closer to gaining a critical seat in the upper chamber. 

“I’d still bet on the Dem, Angela Alsobrooks,” Axelrod commented, “but Hogan, an R, is currently defying gravity.” Hogan was known as one of the state’s most popular governors during his two terms as chief executive, leaving office with a stunning 77% favorability rating.

Alsobrooks responded to the poll by urging her supporters to coalesce around her campaign. 

“We have always known that this race was going to be decided on the margins, and this new poll today confirms that,” she said in a post to X on Tuesday. Alsobrooks was first elected Prince George’s state’s attorney in 2010, securing another term four years later. She was sworn in as the County Executive for Prince George’s County, in December 2018. 

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Maryland is a Democratic stronghold that hasn’t seen a Republican senator since 1977. The last the state voted in a GOP presidential candidate was during the Reagan era. The governor’s race has been more evenly split, though Marylanders still prefer Democrats to occupy the state’s gubernatorial seat.

The RealClearPolitics average of recent surveys gives Alsobrooks an advantage of six percentage points.