Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert and Democrat Adam Frisch are in a dead heat in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, according to a new poll released Tuesday by a Democratic firm.

The Global Strategy Group’s Mountaineer poll, conducted March 29-April 2 in partnership with liberal advocacy group ProgressNow Colorado, found the two-term incumbent and her challenger tied 45% to 45% among likely voters, with the remaining 10% split between voters who are undecided and those who say they plan to vote for someone else.

Boebert defeated Frisch in the Republican-leaning district by just 546 votes in last year’s election in the closest congressional race in the country.

The poll suggests it could be another close race next year.

Pollster Andrew Baumann said the new survey shows Boebert’s standing among voters has slipped since the firm polled the district two years ago.

“Voters overwhelmingly believe that she is focused on promoting herself and defending Donald Trump – not on the issues that matter to them,” Baumann said in a statement.

He noted that even though the district tilts toward Republicans – voters prefer the GOP candidate by an 11-point margin in a generic partisan matchup – the congressional race is tied at this point since Boebert’s negatives are high and voters think she’s focusing on things that they don’t consider important.

Baumann said that while the two were tied among the larger electorate, the poll found Boebert trailing Frisch by 19 percentage points among voters who said they were familiar with both candidates, meaning Frisch “has significant room to pull ahead of Boebert if he can build his name ID further.”

According to the survey, 93% of voters had an opinion about Boebert, while just 63% expressed an opinion about Frisch.

Among the electorate at large, 42% said they view Boebert favorably, with 50% holding an unfavorable view, while 34% view Frisch favorably and 29% view him unfavorably. Boebert’s rating slips when looking just at the district’s unaffiliated voters, with 36% viewing the incumbent favorably and 54% with an unfavorable view. Frisch does slightly better, with 36% viewing him favorably and 28% unfavorably.

The 3rd district covers most of the Western Slope and southern Colorado, including Pueblo County and the San Luis Valley. While it used to be considered a battleground seat, it hasn’t been represented by a Democrat since 2010.

The polling firm, which accurately predicted the results in Colorado’s top-ticket races last year, surveyed 600 likely voters, including an additional 100 unaffiliated voters in order to glean a more precise measure of that group’s preferences, the pollster said. The survey has a 4.4 percentage-point margin of error. The survey sample’s partisan, geographic and demographic background aligns with the district’s registered voter pool, the pollster said.

“In a district that shouldn’t be at risk for Republicans, Boebert is once again setting her party up for a desperate fight to keep this seat,” said ProgressNow Colorado Executive Direct Sara Loflin in a statement.

Frisch told Colorado Politics he was pleased but not surprised to hear the poll’s findings.

“We know we can defeat Rep. Boebert in 2024 because voters in this district are ready for Boebert’s circus to stop and to have a representative who focuses on the issues that matter to their families, their businesses, and their communities,” he said in an emailed statement.

Boebert dismissed the poll on Wednesday in an emailed statement. 

“There is no doubt Democrats will raise more and spend more to try and steal this seat,” she said. “History will prove once again our district does not want a tax-hiking, budget-busting, Green New Deal Democrat to represent them. I am proving to be an extremely effective legislator in the new Congress and will win in 2024 for the same reason I’ve won every race I’ve been in: my policies are right for our district, our state, and our country.”

Asked to pick the issues they think Congress should be focusing on, voters ranked “inflation and the cost of living,” “protecting Social Security and Medicare,” and “jobs and the economy highest,” with “defending Donald Trump” and “promoting themselves on social media” ranking in the cellar.

In results the pollster said could spell peril for Boebert, voters said by wide margins that they think Boebert is putting most of her focus on promoting herself and defending Trump. In addition, 55% of voters said they think Boebert is “more focused on getting attention than getting things done” and “puts ideology and partisanship ahead of getting results for the people she represents,” with 36% and 33% of respondents, respectively, saying they don’t think those phrases describe the incumbent.

Although she has one of the most prominent social media presences among Colorado politicians, Boebert has spent this year boasting that she’s passing legislation and looking out for the district’s interests, but Baumann told Colorado Politics the poll suggests she could have a difficult time changing voters’ impressions.

The congressional race didn’t see significant outside spending last cycle, when the district was rated as solidly Republican by most national forecasters.

Frisch, a former member of Aspen’s city council, launched another run for the seat earlier this year. Last week, he reported that he raised $1.7 million in the year’s first fundraising quarter, setting a record for a challenger in Colorado so early in an off-year. Boebert, herself a powerhouse fundraiser, hasn’t yet said how much she raised during the period. Reports are due to the Federal Election Commission by midnight Saturday.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to include a comment from Lauren Boebert.