Colorado Politics

Democrats running in top-ticket statewide races lead challengers by double-digit margins, poll shows

The Democrats topping the ticket statewide in Colorado hold big leads over their Republican challengers as voters begin to receive ballots, a new poll released Wednesday by a Democratic firm shows.

The Global Strategy Group’s Rocky Mountaineer poll, conducted Oct. 6-11 in partnership with ProgressNow Colorado, found Democratic Gov. Jared Polis leading Republican University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl among likely voters by 18 points, 52% to 34%, with 6% opting for third-party candidates and 8% undecided.

The firm polled 800 registered voters, half by phone and half online. The poll has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error. The survey sample’s partisan, geographic and demographic background aligns with the state’s registered voter pool, pollsters said.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet holds an 11-point leader over his Republican challenger, businessman Joe O’Dea among likely voters, the poll found, with 49% supporting Bennet and 38% supporting O’Dea. Another 7% expressed a preference for Libertarian nominee Brian Peotter, and 11% were undecided.

In head-to-head results, asking respondents to choose between the two major party candidates, Polis led Ganahl 54%-39%, and Bennet led O’Dea 52%-42%.

The margins are on the upper end of recent polling results for the races, though both Democrats hold slimmer leads in polling averages compiled by national trackers.

The FiveThirtyEight site, which assigns Global Strategy Group a B/C rating, says Bennet leads O’Dea by an average 7.8 points, while Polis leads Ganahl by an average 15.9 points.

Democrats seeking reelection in Colorado as attorney general and secretary of state – two contests with a scant history of publicly available polling this cycle – are also running ahead of their Republican opponents, the poll found.

Attorney General Phil Weiser, the Democrat, leads 18th Judicial District Attorney John Kellner, the Republican nominee, 44%-36%, with 7% picking the Libertarian nominee and 12% undecided, according to the new poll.

In the secretary of state’s race, incumbent Democrat Jena Griswold holds a 10-point lead over former Jefferson County Clerk Pam Anderson, the Republican, 46%-36%, with 8% supporting third-party candidates and 10% undecided.

The poll paints a rosy picture for Democrats heading into Colorado’s midterm election, when the GOP is hoping to make inroads in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to major statewide office since 2014.

Democrats hold a 7-point advantage on self-identification with political parties, with 46% saying they align with the party and 39% saying they most identify with Republicans. The party split is narrower among registered voters, where Democrats account for 28% of the state’s 3.76 million active, registered voters, Republicans make up 25%, and unaffiliated voters hold a 46% share. (The remainder belong to Colorado’s five minor political parties.)

By a narrow margin, the survey’s respondents hold a net-positive view of Democratic state lawmakers, with 46% drawing a favorable response and 43% unfavorable. Republicans in the legislature are upside-down, however, with 38% expressing a favorable view and 47% an unfavorable one.

The survey shows Republicans hold a slim advantage on issues the GOP has been emphasizing this year, leading Democrats by 3 points on improving the economy and creating good-paying jobs and the same 3 points on protecting public safety. Democrats lead on all the other issues polled, including by overwhelming margins on some topics.

Voters told pollsters they trust Democrats more to address the rising cost of living by a 2-point margin and to deal with issues involving guns by 6 points. When it comes to dealing with issues surrounding abortion, Democrats have a 27-point advantage, and as far as reducing air pollution and addressing climate change, voters surveyed prefer Democrats by 32 points.

Unusual for a midterm election – when the party in power typically lags in enthusiasm and the opposition makes big gains – the poll found that Republicans and Democrats in Colorado are dead even on motivation to vote, marking a small jump in enthusiasm for Democrats since June, when Global Strategy Group last polled state voters on the question.

Since the firm’s June poll, favorability ratings for Biden, Polis and President Joe Biden have all improved, while respondents’ views of former President Donald Trump have dropped.

Polis is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 36%, the poll found. Bennet gets positive marks from 47% and thumbs down from 33%.

Biden is underwater among state voters, with a rating standing at 45% favorable and 52% unfavorable, though the Democrat’s net-negative score is dwarfed by Trump’s, who is viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 61%.

Colorado’s Republican U.S. Senate nominee Joe O’Dea and Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet
(AP file photos)
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