While Democrats are expected to hold onto the Colorado House going into 2023, albeit with a potentially more narrow advantage than they hold now, the state Senate is much closer to being in play in November.

Democrats hold a 21-14 advantage, a majority that grew by one when Sen. Kevin Priola changed his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat in August. 

Seventeen seats are awaiting voter decisions in November. Eight seats are technically open, although two – the seats held by former Senate President Leroy Garcia of Pueblo and Senate Minority Leader Chris Holbert of Douglas County – were vacated earlier this year and have newly-minted incumbents.

Four of the eight open seats are held by term-limited senators. Two other senators lost their seats because of redistricting.

Of the seats to be decided in November, strategists for both parties are keying in on seven. Republicans must hold the two competitive seats already in their column, and take at least three of the remaining five to wrest control away from Democrats.

And while candidates are canvassing for votes and dollars, the big money is yet to be seen. That’s likely to come from independent expenditure committees from Colorado and from Washington, D.C. that are expected to spend millions to decide which party controls the state Senate.

It should be noted that the redistricting competitiveness estimates are based on election results from 2016 onward, possibly overestimating Democrat advantages due to unprecedented levels of turnout those years. Voter registration numbers are from the Colorado Secretary of State’s office and are current as of Aug. 1, 2022.

Senate District 3: Sen. Nick Hinrichsen (D) v. Steven Varela (R)

Location: Pueblo County

Redistricting estimate: 5.1% Democratic advantage

Voter registration: Democrats 34.6%, Republicans 23.8%, unaffiliated 39.7%

SD 3 has elected a Republican only once in the last decade, in the 2013 recall election. The following year, the district sent Garcia to the Senate and the seat has stayed in the Democratic column ever since. 

With no Republican challenger, Garcia won his second term in 2018 in a landslide.  When Garcia announced he was taking a job at the Pentagon in February, the Democratic vacancy contest to replace him initially drew seven candidates, including former Sen. Angela Giron, the subject of the 2013 recall. The vacancy election saw Hinrichsen besting three other Democrats, and he is now seeking his first full term. 

Varela was the only GOP candidate to come out of the SD3 assembly, although three other Republicans initially filed candidacy paperwork, including former state Rep. Judy Reyher.

The money race between the two Pueblo residents is a virtual dead heat as of Aug. 31. Hinrichsen has raised $42,012 and spent $13,775, leaving $28,985 on hand for the final two months of the campaign. Varela has raised $41,017, spent $17,814, and has on hand $26,777.

Senate District 8: Rep. Dylan Roberts (D) v. Matt Solomon (R)

Location: 10 counties in northwest Colorado and the central mountains, from Clear Creek, Gilpin and Grand counties to the state borders with Utah and Wyoming

Redistricting estimate: 6.6% Democratic advantage

Voter registration: Democrats 23.6%, Republicans 26.3%, unaffiliated 48.2%

This district includes Democratic-leaning counties such as Eagle, Summit and Gilpin, and Republican-leaning counties west to the Utah and Wyoming state line. 

An open seat currently held by term-limited Sen. Kerry Donovan of Vail, redistricting has shifted the district west and into Republican-dominated counties. 

Roberts, an Eagle resident, holds a substantial campaign bank account advantage over Solomon, a former Eagle town council member and who also started Eagle County’s longest standing gun shop, which he sold four years ago. Roberts has raised $176,393, spent $38,400 and has $137,998 on hand heading into the final two months before Election Day. Solomon has raised $59,600, loaned himself $17,353 and spent $47,411. He has $26,984 left.

Senate District 11: Sen. Dennis Hisey (R) v. Rep. Tony Exum, Sr. (D)

Location: Southeast Colorado Springs

Redistricting estimate: 2.4% Democratic lean

Voter registration: Democratic 24.2%, Republican 22.4%, unaffiliated 50.6%

Likely the most closely watched legislative race in the state, the SD 11 contest pits an incumbent senator who is facing a complaint over whether he lives where he’s been voting against a long-time Democratic House member.

Hisey has the advantage on the fundraising side, with $86,951 in contributions, spending at $21,452 and with $65,498 on hand. Exum faced a Democratic primary so his bank account was depleted. He’s raised $46,158, spent $33,511 and has $12,647 on hand.

Exum won his first House term in 2012 before he lost by less than 300 votes in 2014 to Republican Rep. Kit Roupe. But he won a rematch in 2016 and kept the seat with large margins in 2018 and 2020. He’s also raised at least $100,000 for each of his House races.

Hisey won his first term in a landslide in 2018 to Senate District 2, which included Clear Creek, Fremont, Teller, El Paso and Park counties. He also didn’t have to raise much to win the 2018 seat, brining in less than $30,000. 

Senate District 15: Sen. Rob Woodward (R) v. Janice Marchman (D)

Location: Larimer and north Boulder counties

Redistricting estimate: No advantage to either party, the only seat out of 100 in the General Assembly to be rated as such

Voter registration: Democratic 22%, Republican 30%, unaffiliated 45.7%

One of two must-win seats for Republicans who hope to gain control of the state Senate pits two Loveland residents against each other.

Woodward has the advantage on the money side: he’s raised $219,145, spent $73,529 and has $146,630 heading into September. Marchman has raised $63,394, spent $28,419 and has $35,074 left.

Senate District 20: Rep. Lisa Cutter (D) v. Tim Walsh (R) of Evergreen

Location: West Jefferson County, including Morrison, Evergreen and Genesee and north to the Boulder County line

Redistricting estimate: 7.1% Democratic advantage

Voter registration: Democratic 27.4%, Republican 24.6%, unaffiliated 46.3%

Previously known as SD20 and represented by Sen. Brittany Pettersen, D-Lakewood, who is now vying for the U.S. House, the district was relatively safe for Democrats. However, the new SD20 includes north Jefferson County, which leans conservative.

Cutter, of Littleton, has raised $66,274 and spent just $13,432, leaving $52,842. Her opponent, real estate developer Walsh of Evergreen, has already loaned his campaign $320,000. He’s also raised $62,888, spent $162,033 and repaid $190,000 of that loan. He has $30,854 on hand.

Senate District 24: Rep. Kyle Mullica (D) v. Courtney Potter (R)

Location: Adams County, including Thornton, Federal Heights and north Northglenn

Redistricting estimate: 9.1% Democratic lean

Voter registration: Democratic 29.7%, Republican 21.4%, unaffiliated 47%

Mullica of Northglenn, who spent two terms in the House, has raised $120,082, spent $68,342 and has $61,999 on hand for the final two months. Potter, a Thornton resident and member of the Adams 12 school board, has raised $29,436, spent $15,142 and has $14,294 on hand.

While the open seat appears to have a strong Democratic lean, Republicans have targeted this seat .

Senate District 27: Rep. Tom Sullivan (D) v. Tom Kim (R)

Location: southeast Arapahoe County

Redistricting estimate: 4.7% Democratic lean

Voter registration: Democratic 27.2%, Republican 24.9%, unaffiliated 46.4%

Redistricting left this area without an incumbent senator, so it’s an open seat. Sullivan has made a name for himself for his work on gun control measures, winning his first term in the House in 2018 over House Minority Leader Cole Wist, who lost in part because of his support for a red flag law. Sullivan won his race in 2020 by more than 10 percentage points.

Kim, if elected, would become the first Asian-American lawmaker since Democratic state Rep. Dennis Apuan in the 2009-2010 sessions.

Sullivan, of Centennial, has raised $70,267, spent $3,297, and has $66,970 on hand. Kim, a Foxfield resident, had to fight his way through a primary, and so far has raised $80,613, including almost $30,000 in nonmonetary contributions. He’s spent $70,397 and has on hand $10,233.