The battle for political party control of the Colorado House of Representatives is now underway. Democrats and Republicans are in the process of selecting and recruiting the party candidates who will run against each other for the 65 seats in the lower house of the Legislature.

Thanks in part to gerrymandering, the Democrats are entering the contest with a decided advantage. The state Legislative Redistricting Commission created 30 safe-Democratic House seats and only 19 safe-Republican House seats. The Democrats need to win only three of the 16 competitive districts to gain a 33-seat ruling majority in the House. The Republicans, however, must win 14 of the 16 competitive seats to win that 33-vote ruling majority.

A typical safe-Democratic seat is so populated with Democratic voters, and Democratic-leaning unaffiliated voters, that it predictably votes Democratic in the November general election. Likewise, a safe-Republican seat is so filled with Republicans that it predictably goes Republican.

A competitive seat is where the two political parties are relatively balanced. The seat can go either Democratic or Republican in the general election.

Political parties, not surprisingly, have little trouble recruiting candidates to run for safe-Democratic or safe-Republican seats. It is encouraging to know that, once you have won the party nomination, winning the November general election against the other political party’s candidate is generally guaranteed.

When it comes to safe seats, in either party, the struggle is to win the party nomination, either at the political party convention or in the party primary election.

With competitive seats, however, the candidate must work hard to win the general election against the other political party. Friends must be organized into volunteer organizations and the candidate must open and maintain a robust campaign headquarters.

Money must be raised to finance the campaign, to pay for things like mailing colorful postcards touting the candidate or making and buying radio and television advertisements.

And your competitive-seat candidate should be a well-known somebody, ideally who has previously held an elective office, such as mayor of a small town, or a county commissioner, or a city councilmember.

It will be a challenge for the Republican Party to find enough strong candidates to run for those 14 competitive seats needed to win Republican control of the Colorado House. They have to do this while the Democrats only need to win three competitive seats.

The situation for the Republicans gains more urgency in view of the predicted red wave of Republican electoral victories that is likely coming in November 2022. The red wave theory is driven by major issues believed to harm the Democrats – the lingering coronavirus pandemic, the messy end to the Afghanistan War, growing crime in the cities, supply-chain problems and rising rates of inflation.

But political studies have shown that major voting shifts like a red wave cannot take effect if the benefiting political party does not have strong candidates running for the various offices up for election. If the Republicans cannot find qualified and hardworking candidates to run for those 14 competitive seats, the anticipated big red wave will wash over the Colorado House in November, yet have little or no benefit for the GOP.

Keep a close eye on how well the Republicans do at finding strong nominees for 14 of the 16 competitive seats created for the Colorado House by the recent redistricting. We think that will determine if the Republicans can overcome the pro-Democratic gerrymandering and win control of the lower house.

We give this advice to the Democrats as the battle for the Colorado House of Representatives begins: pick six or seven of the competitive seats and concentrate major resources on winning them. If you win three of the six or seven and all 30 of your safe-Democratic seats, you will have majority control.

Democrats have been doing well in Colorado elections lately by turning out registered Democrats and Democrat-supporting unaffiliated voters, particularly in Denver, Boulder and the ski counties. This ground game has worked well for the Democrats in the past. It will be their best defense if the predicted red wave materializes in November.

Our advice to the Republicans is to run for the Colorado House on national issues, like inflation, the rising national debt, security at the southern border, etc. Stay away from contentious state and local issues that tend to divide the Colorado electorate.

It is our observation that state legislative elections in Colorado are more affected by national issues, particularly those centering on the president of the United States. Democratic President Joe Biden’s weaknesses are driving the red wave. Republicans should work on that.

Bob Loevy and Tom Cronin write on Colorado and national issues and were longtime political science professors at Colorado College in Colorado Springs. Bob Loevy served on the 2010 Colorado Redistricting Commission for the state legislature.