Ready or not, another big election year is upon us – even if some of us feel like stealing the title of the HBO series, “Curb Your Enthusiasm.”

Let’s devote this mid-January column to the dozen big questions that will do much to shape and define this year. Here it goes.

1. What is the condition of the state and the country this fall? Is COVID-19 still with us in a consuming, behavior-shaping way? Is inflation still sizzling, or has it been dialed back to something closer to the normal range? Is the economy humming? Are grocery shelves again full? Is President Biden able to steady his political ship?
2. All of that will dictate much of the political context. Does 2022 become a rather typical off-year election with the party in power (in this case, the Democrats) suffering losses but avoiding a wipeout? Or does it become a tsunami of historic proportions (similar to Clinton’s first off-year in 1994 and Obama’s in 2010)?
3. Bringing it home, can the Colorado Republican Party get its act together? Can it avoid the internecine warfare that has led to so many botched opportunities? Can it bridge the divide between remaining moderates and the uncompromising Trump-ian base? Will it nominate candidates with appeal to unaffiliated suburban voters? In short, can it get out of its own way after so many cycles of failure?
4. In a state that never warmed to Trump, what will be the Trump effect with him still very much on the scene but not on the ballot? My assessment is that Colorado is currently a state with a six- to eight-point Democratic lean. However, Trump takes that number up to the vicinity of the 14 points by which he lost in 2020. If this turns into a significant GOP wave, a half-dozen points could be made up. But not into the double digits.
5. Can good fortune stay with Michael Bennet? In the tough year of 2010, he drew the less viable Republican challenger. Then six years later, Republicans gave their nomination to an under-manned, under-funded candidate who never found his political legs (even if Darryl Glenn made a mean exercise video). Do Republicans find a candidate this time to really make Bennet sweat, no matter the national prognosticators who do not regard the seat as vulnerable?
6. Could blue Colorado send to Washington a Congressional delegation of five Republicans and only three Democrats? The possibility is there. Each side starts with three highly secure seats (Democrats DeGette, Neguse and Crow; Republicans Boebert, Buck and Lamborn). The brand new 8th Congressional District is as competitive as they come. And the 7th District from which Ed Perlmutter is retiring, while having a slight Democratic lean, could be up for grabs in a wave year and minus an incumbent.
7. Can Heidi Ganahl find her footing and become a formidable opponent to Gov. Jared Polis? On paper, Ganahl checks lots of boxes and looks like a dream candidate. But elections are not won on paper, or even with pricey consultants. They are won with instincts, tireless energy and bold moves. Does Ganahl have that within her? The early signs are not auspicious.
8. How big a check will Polis be forced to write? Four years ago, Polis spent in the ballpark of $25 million out of his personal fortune to win his prize. True, the largest chunk of that was spent in the primary to vanquish several able opponents. How deep into the wallet will he have to dip this time? Often overlooked is the real advantage of self-funding. It is not just about the dollars, but about all of the time he has available for other political undertakings. Some candidates spend 70 percent of waking hours raising money while it takes Polis less than a minute to write himself a seven or eight-digit check.
9. Does Phil Weiser get a free pass? Republicans have serious candidates for state treasurer and secretary of State. But no Republican of credibility has stepped forward to take on the attorney general. Even if Weiser is far more capable than his two Democratic peers, it would be a mistake for Republicans to forfeit this chance given that these three down-ballot races often track closely with each other and serve as a proxy for each party’s broader prospects.
10. Does redistricting appreciably change the legislative outlook? The decennial redrawing of district lines has scrambled the lay of the land. Some districts now contain two incumbents having to duel it out. Other districts lack an incumbent. The Democratic majority in the State House looks to be unassailable. But their majority in the State Senate is much closer to the margin and conceivably in play. A corollary question is whether Democratic legislators in this election year will ease up on their ambitiously progressive wish list.
11. Who commits the big gaffe? This is an intriguing, unpredictable element of every election year. In Virginia, we just witnessed Democratic candidate and former Governor Terry McAuliffe stumblingly assert that parents had no role in the content of their child’s education. That proved a self-inflicted coup de grâce. Which Colorado candidate is poised to take a large bite out of his or her own foot?
12. What is the sleeper issue not yet on the radar? Again harkening back to the Virginia contest, few foresaw ten months ahead that the educational role and rights of parents would turn into a pivotal point. It is virtually guaranteed that some such issue will emerge out of the political yonder to have a major impact come November. What turns out to be that unforeseen topic and which side stands to benefit?

Those are my dozen key questions and variables. You will notice what is missing. There is no mention of a slick ad here or a shady mailer there. Those political tactics receive much attention at the time but are far less determinative than the overall landscape and the broad brush strokes.

It should be an interesting ride. Hop aboard.

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for ColoradoPolitics and the Gazette newspapers. Reach him at EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann