Over the past eighteen months, our country has gone from one where there was an abundance of products in our stores and wide variety of different brands, to one where we are in many cases seeing shortages and limited choice in what we can buy. We now are being placed on waiting lists for particular items and goods. Further, where we once could obtain many items in 24 to 48 hours, there is little guarantee when we may receive certain products.

During the pandemic we have moved from a buyer’s market to a seller’s. With the previous great quantity of goods, products were regularly discounted and prices slashed deeply to move excess merchandise. That is no longer the case. Automobiles are a good example. Rarely did people pay the sticker price on a new vehicle. Now, buyers find themselves competing to purchase a new vehicle and paying the sticker price or higher.

What happened? A broken supply chain caused by COVID and our nation’s response to it. Prior to the pandemic most people weren’t even familiar with the term, “supply chain”. Few considered or cared how products reached their stores, homes and businesses.

With the meltdown of the supply chain, that all changed and not a day goes by without a news story about it. While many may now be aware of it, few people understand how the supply chain works or the complexity of it. The supply chain is a highly integrated system consisting of many distinct links that traverse continents and oceans and involves multiple forms of transportation and various companies that must work together like a symphony orchestra to allow us to receive products in our stores, businesses and homes. Even one break in that chain may cause significant delays, shortages, and/or increased costs for products. Multiple breaks in the chain, as exists today, greatly magnify the problem.

The current supply chain problems have exposed its fragility. We found that the pandemic created a domino effect in the supply chain with one domino falling over and knocking down another and setting off a chain reaction. As a result, none of the links in the supply chain, whether it is shipping, rail, truck, or air freight are operating smoothly today. This is truly the first time in our modern history that this international, sophisticated, highly-integrated, and complex supply chain not only frayed but came apart.

Both business and government bear some responsibility for the supply chain meltdown. With COVID both the public and private sectors were uncertain on what actions to take and how to keep the public safe while not undermining the economy. A major fear was that COVID could lead to a significant economic downturn and possibly even trigger a recession. The uncertain business climate helped to fuel concern which led many businesses to pare back orders from suppliers. Suppliers and manufacturers reacted to the drop in orders and trimmed staff and production lines, reduced raw material orders, cut expenses, and produced fewer products. Consumers, fearing for the loss of their jobs or a temporary layoff, also began to economize and trimmed their budget and cut their purchases.

Federal and state governments exacerbated the situation with the issuance of confusing and constantly changing health orders. Business owners had little idea from one month to the next what restrictions may apply. To contend with COVID, businesses also were forced to adopt extensive cleaning procedures, redesign business processes, and modify work places. While important, these changes added costs and in many cases adversely affected productivity.

The overall reduction in production and orders, led to fewer shipments and reduced demand for transportation services. In turn, freight transporters including ocean freighters, railroads, trucking companies, and air freight operators cut operations, costs and personnel.

With the shrinkage of freight operations, we found a disproportionate number of senior employees in the transportation sectors chose to retire, whether due to health concerns associated with COVID or the uncertainty of their jobs. The loss of so many skilled truckdrivers, railroad engineers, pilots, mechanics, and others during this period significantly shrunk the overall logistics workforce making it more difficult to respond to demand as the economy bounced back.

While much of the responsibility for the supply chain problem rests with the private sector with regards to a lack of preparedness or resiliency in the face of a crisis like COVID, government must share some of the blame due to both their inactions and actions. One undeniable problem has been the failure of the federal government and states to make investments in the nation’s aging transportation infrastructure. This has led to bottlenecks in the supply chain where freight shipments stall or travel at a snail’s pace through certain areas.

Add to this that the federal government has stymied many productivity improvements in the transportation sector due to political and competitive interests who wish to keep arcane rules and laws in place which benefit their particular industry or group. It is not only the federal government’s actions but also individual states that have contributed to our supply chain problems. Over the years states have erected a myriad of confusing taxes, new regulations, and routing barriers for transportation operators who are trying to move goods across the country. Failure to pay even one of these fees or comply with a specific rule in a state may lead to a truck being held for hours if not a day. We need uniformity and consistency in these laws, rules and regulations.

At this time, it is difficult to project how long it may take to restore the supply chain. Experts estimate anywhere from six months to over a year. As we look at bringing back the supply chain, we should not merely seek to rebuild the existing system but improve it. We should examine each link as well as the overall system to see how we can make it more efficient and hopefully avoid another melt down in the future. In this analysis, we must account for the shift in consumer trends in our country that has occurred, due in part to COVID, and we must adjust the system to address them.

More people working from home, a greater number of businesses and consumers purchasing goods via e-commerce versus local stores, groceries and other basics delivered to homes, and more food delivery versus visiting restaurants represent a few of these economic trends. Already these consumer shifts have caused ripples in the supply chain and are forcing businesses to restructure their operations to better address those changes in buyer behavior.

How do we avoid a similar meltdown in the future? First, we need resiliency built into the supply chain so when one link breaks we can restore it sooner or have an alternative. We need more avenues for products rather than being dependent solely on one producer or country for specific materials or products (i.e. the microchip shortage).

Second, we need to build a logistics workforce for the future. To do this we must recruit young people as well as women and minorities who are underrepresented groups in these industries today. Third, we must invest in our transportation system at the federal and state level to improve freight and people movement. Finally we must remove governmental barriers to transportation productivity and streamline governmental regulations at the federal and state levels.

Greg Fulton is the president of the Colorado Motor Carriers Association, which represents over 650 companies directly involved in or affiliated with trucking in Colorado today