In taking the oath of office this past January, President Joe Biden rendered what for many was service enough. In that moment, he concluded the dismissal of nothing less than an existential threat to the republic in the person of the absent, sullen, disbelieving, always-me-first Donald Trump, our very own wannabe caesar. 

In itself, that will go down as an historic contribution. It is at least arguable that no other person could have managed that feat and sent Trump into exile.  

Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, the cast of others – none of them were likely to defeat Trump who again out-polled and out-performed most expectations. 

Biden was elected for who he wasn’t as much as for who he was. First and foremost, he was not Donald Trump in a nation grown weary of the vitriol. 

Nearly as important, he was not what so many of the other Democratic aspirants represented. Biden was anything but trendy or hip, dogmatic, exquisitely woke, threatening. To many, Biden was a low-risk antidote to the upheaval all around. 

Being pulled ever further left, Democrats were never going to countenance stability and incrementalism as presidential motifs. And Biden, long a weathervane for where his party stood at any moment, opted to go with the flow. The praise of Bernie or Elizabeth or AOC was more coveted than the approval of working-class voters of western Pennsylvania or women voters of suburban Atlanta who had been decisive in swinging the election his way. 

After a solid start, the wheels came off the Biden bus as summer turned to fall. His reputation for boring competence fell prey to the botched, chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. 

A nation craving security was exposed to another wave of COVID along with an out-of-control scene on the southern border for which the administration seemed to have no plan and little attention. Worrisome monthly reports of escalating inflation added further anxiety. 

A public longing for healing, or just a small ratchet back on the all-consuming animus, was instead treated to an endless debate over incomprehensible spending numbers. 

The result is a markedly changed political landscape, with Biden and his party underwater in the deep end. The political divide being what it is, Biden retains the affection of most Democrats while Republicans are even more hardened in their opposition. But the real tell is among independent voters where Biden’s rating have sunk precipitously. 

Exit polls last November showed Biden winning independent voters by 13 points. A year later, credible surveys indicate a 23-point margin among these voters in their disapproval versus approval. 

Such numbers are politically deadly and such a shift cannot be brushed off. Negative impressions are difficult to erase and downward trajectories hard to reverse. 

To be clear, the current political battle is not a contest between two equivalent forces. Democrats have their internal rifts. For my taste, too many in their ranks regard moderation and restraint to be dirty words. But their debates happen within normal bounds.  

On the other hand, Republicans, in their current incarnation, have ceded judgment and all manner of principle to the whims and delusions of one mercurial man loyal only to himself and lacking baseline respect for democratic norms, traditions and institutions. 

In this context, the dangers of a failed Presidency are further magnified. 

Back to those up-for-grabs independents, there is abundant evidence that they have soured on Biden as they have grown more skeptical of expansive government. When asked today whether they support a larger federal role, independents respond negatively by nearly 20 points. 

All incoming presidents assert a mandate. But the read here is that Biden claimed the wrong one. To listen to Democratic talking points day after day, one would think that the $3.5 trillion grab bag came down on stone tablets. In progressive quarters, the totality of it is so sacrosanct that a trillion-dollar infrastructure plan (relative small change in this scheme) with significant bipartisan backing is being held hostage. 

Lin-Manuel Miranda could have been writing of Biden’s predicament in his “Hamilton” masterpiece, qith this bit of musical dialogue: 

Jefferson and Madison to Hamilton: “You don’t have the votes. You’re gonna need congressional approval and you don’t have the votes.” 

Washington to Hamilton: “You need the votes.” 

Hamilton: “No, we need bold strokes. We need this plan.” 

Washington: “No, you need to convince more folks.” 

The reality Biden finally acknowledged this week is that he cannot get to 50 Senate votes for his $3.5 trillion plan. Democrats will now debate some scaled-back but still immense package with $1.9 trillion being a possible target. Internal rancor is guaranteed. 

The 2020 election was a mandate to show Donald Trump the door. Nothing more.  

Had that election been a public call for such massive spending on top of the usual assortment of cultural issues so loved by progressives, Democrats would have taken the Senate handily and added to their margin in the House. 

The fact that did not happen spoke to public sentiment. The call was for experience, competence, modesty and stability. Hence, Biden instead of Trump. But, simultaneously, a major narrowing of the Democratic House margin; and continued Republican control of the Senate until Trump essentially forfeited two Georgia Senate seats with his non-stop, self-indulgent fraud allegations.  

At this point, Democrats are playing their hand with a certain defeatism. The prevailing logic, if it can be called such, is that Democrats are destined to lose both houses in 2022 so they might as well have something big to show for their troubles. Just as Trump is obsessed with his base, Democrats are set on appeasing theirs.  

The Senate vote count has forced Biden to reluctantly tap the brakes. While the largest swath of unattached voters would prefer that government advance at a far slower speed. 

America lives in a perilous moment. One party is openly flirting with ideas that are fundamentally anti-democratic. Such a path would turn our great political divide into a chasm none of us want to consider. 

Much is riding on how more reasonable forces respond. Here again, Washington’s theatrical admonition to Hamilton bears repeating. 

“Winning is easy, young man. Governing is harder.” 

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for ColoradoPolitics and the Denver Gazette. Reach him at?EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann