Colorado Politics

CRONIN & LOEVY | Redistricting poses competition

Tom Cronin and Bob Loevy

The 2021 redistricting plan for the Colorado state legislature is off to a good start. The preliminary plan presented by the Legislative Redistricting Commission two weeks ago strikes a workable and pragmatic balance between the Democrats and the Republicans in the state House of Representatives and the state Senate.

We checked out the Commission plan with the voting results from the 2018 attorney general election in Colorado in which Democrat Phil Weiser defeated Republican George Brauchler. We adjusted our results for the fact that Democrat Weiser won the election.

In the state House of Representatives, when the legislative redistricting takes effect in the 2022 state elections, our figures indicate there would be 23 Safe Democratic districts, 26 Safe Republican districts, and 16 Competitive districts. That is a good two-party balance, although slightly favoring the Republicans with 3 more Safe Republican districts than Safe Democratic districts.

The redistricting process begins by identifying Safe Democratic districts and Safe Republican districts.

By our definition, a Safe Democratic district is one where the Democrats receive 55 percent or more of the two-party vote. In a Safe Republican district, the Republicans win 55 percent plus of the two-party vote.

The key to a fair redistricting, in our view, is creating competitive districts. These are legislative districts in which voters are evenly balanced between the two major political parties. Such districts swing back and forth in elections, voting Democratic when the Democrats are popular and Republican when that party gains public favor.

Competitive districts are often referred to as “swing districts” or “battleground districts.” We defined a Competitive district as one in which the Democratic candidate received between 45 percent and 55 percent of the vote. If you are a loyal Republican, you can use 45 to 55 percent of the Republican vote. It produces the same results.

We would like to have seen a few more Competitive districts for the state House of Representatives in the preliminary redistricting plan. As noted, those are the districts that swing back and forth between the Democrats and the Republicans and thereby determine which political party wins majority control of the state House of Representatives.

The state House in Colorado has 65 members, so 33 votes are required to make a majority and have party control of the chamber.

A possible alternative state House redistricting plan might be to turn 3 of the Safe Republican House districts into Competitive House districts. That would produce a lineup in the House of 23 Safe Democratic, 23 Safe Republican, and 19 Competitive districts.

We found much the same situation in the state Senate as in the state House of Representatives. The Commission’s state Senate proposal calls for 12 Safe Democratic, 15 Safe Republican, and 8 Competitive districts.

Here again, we respectfully suggest moving 3 Safe Republican districts over to Competitive districts, thereby producing 12 Safe Democratic, 12 Safe Republican, and 11 Competitive districts.

The state Senate in Colorado has only 35 members, so 18 votes are required to make a majority and have party control of the chamber.

The non-partisan state legislative staff serves as staff for the Legislative Redistricting Commission. We acknowledge that it will not be an easy task for the staff to act on our recommendations as redistricting plans must be carefully and laboriously adjusted.

Political party leaders in both political parties will understandably lobby for as many safe seats favoring their party as possible. That is their job as they see it, so there will be partisan feuds and arguments.

However, there is much to be said for the preliminary state House and state Senate redistricting plans as the Commission presented them.

The Legislative Redistricting Commission was created by a state constitutional amendment adopted by the voters in November of 2018. The amendment was sold to state voters on the promise that it would end gerrymandering of legislative districts to favor one political party over the other.

The constitutional amendment emphasized that Competitive districts shall be one of the tools used to achieve fair legislative districting in Colorado.

The Legislative Redistricting Commission is about to take the show on the road, holding public hearings on the state House and state Senate preliminary redistricting plans throughout Colorado. The final legislative redistricting plans will be officially adopted in the fall.

Tom Cronin and Bob Loevy were longtime political science professors at Colorado College in Colorado Springs. They write about Colorado and national politics. Bob Loevy served on the 2011 Colorado legislative redistricting commission that strongly emphasized Competitive Districts in its work.

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