Enrollment in Colorado’s public schools has declined overall by 2.6%, or about 22,280 students, according to a forecast presented Friday to the Joint Budget Committee by Legislative Council economists.

The biggest drops were recorded in the communities in Colorado’s central mountain region, at about 4.6%. Colorado Springs had the smallest decline, at 1.3%.

However, full-time equivalent enrollment actually grew dramatically in the state’s southwest mountain region, by 7.6%, according to Friday’s forecast.

The drop in enrollment in the 2020-21 school year is “unprecedented” and due to health concerns for the pandemic, according to economist Meredith Moon.

Kindergarten enrollment saw the biggest decline, at 8.5%, or about 5,287 FTE students.

Online enrollment rose dramatically, by 37.6%; however, that was less than 8,000 FTE students, which only slightly blunted the overall decline.

That comes a year after flat growth in K-12 enrollment, Moon said.

Moon attributed the enrollment decline to students who went to in-learning pods, were homeschooled or switched to private schools. The decline in kindergarten enrollment is likely from parents who decided to hold their students home one year before sending them off to school for the first time.

She said she believes most school districts will return to in-person learning in fall 2021, and most students will go back to their prior school districts.

Total K-12 enrollment in 2020-21 is 845,916; next fall, it’s expected to grow by nearly 20,000 students, to 865,860. That’s still less than in 2019-20.

What that means for school finance: The General Assembly has a choice to make, according to the presentation. Hold school funding steady or view this as an opportunity to reduce the budget stabilization, or BS, factor, currently at $1.173 billion. That’s the debt to K-12 schools that started with the Great Recession but ballooned by more than $500 million in 2020-21 due to budget cuts.

Lower enrollment means the BS factor could be reduced by $83 million to $1.09 billion, according to the forecast.