Metrics used to track the spread of the coronavirus have improved for Denver and Adams County in recent days that, while a welcome reprieve from exponential growth, is still new and too close to Thanksgiving to celebrate.

Health officials won’t have a clear idea of the holiday’s impact on spread for several more days at the earliest, so officials said that variable is too significant to write off. Still, data published by the two counties’ health departments offer some early positive trends.

“It is slightly premature to attribute this plateau in cases to a specific change or occurrence, but we believe more awareness around the case surge and an adherence to public health orders will drive down cases,” said Tammy Vigil, spokeswoman for Denver Department of Public Health and Environment. “This week will be a test to see if Thanksgiving activities contributed to COVID-19 spread, which would show another surge in cases reported to the our health department over the next few days.”

In Adams County, the per-100,000 person incidence rate is down to 70; it had peaked at 110 on Nov. 18. Both Arapahoe and Douglas counties are also down by 20 or more cases. The three-day rolling average of cases confirmed each day has also improved: Adams peaked at 696 cases per day but has dropped to 238. Arapahoe hit 591 and is now at 386, while Douglas’s high was 293, compared to its current rate of 178.

Callie Preheim, an epidemiologist with the Tri-County Health Department, said the improved numbers were “very encouraging,” as is mobility data that shows people moving around less late at night. She attributed that to the curfew instituted last month.

Though the signs are promising, she echoed Vigil: The impacts of Thanksgiving will determine whether the improved data is an aberration or a turning point.

In Denver, the two-week incident rate per 100,000 people – the average number of cases confirmed over the past two weeks – is down to 1,064. It had peaked at 1,306 on Nov. 20. Daily hospitalizations, too, have fallen.

Statewide, the number of cases reported daily has also fallen, though it still is well above any other point in the pandemic. The seven-day average of daily cases has been steadily declining since Nov. 18. But it’s still higher than every other day before Nov. 12.