Colorado Politics

TRAIL MIX | The Election 2020 dance card is nearly set

With Election Day fewer than 200 days away, Colorado’s ballot for federal offices has nearly taken shape, with only a handful of primaries to be decided in June before campaign season is in full swing.

It hasn’t been entirely set because a few Democratic U.S. Senate candidates are working their way through the courts in an attempt to qualify for the primary, arguing that the sudden onset of the coronavirus outbreak in early March prevented them from finishing their petition drives.

In a stunning development, Denver District Court Judge Christopher J. Baumann on April 21 agreed with Michelle Ferrigno Warren that, even though she didn’t collect enough valid signatures, she should appear on the ballot, alongside former Gov. John Hickenlooper and former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, who had already qualified – Hickenlooper by petition and Romanoff through the caucus and assembly process.

Two other candidates – Diana Bray and Lorena Garcia – are also going before the court with the same ask. While Garcia is heading into court with a signature count significantly closer to the requirement, their circumstances are similar enough to Warren’s that it’s a good bet they’ll also find themselves on the ballot.

It could be early May before that primary lineup is finally determined, and by then it’ll be only weeks until ballots start arriving in mailboxes.

Following a tumultuous six weeks that stretched from precinct caucuses on March 7 to the Democrats’ and Republicans’ state assemblies on April 18 – with the parties scrambling to replace in-person county, district and state assemblies with ones held remotely, including drive-thru events, online meetings and some conducted entirely in conference calls or by email – most of the congressional nominees have been tapped, with primaries in only one district.

The electoral terrain in the state’s seven congressional districts at this point looks almost nothing like it did two years ago, when almost every district had a primary.

While some of the 2018 congressional district primary contests were resolved before the June election – U.S. Reps. Mike Coffman and Ken Buck both fended off challengers who fell short at Republican assemblies – most of the eventual nominees weren’t decided until voters had their say.

When all of last cycle’s primary ballots were counted, U.S. Reps. Diana DeGette and Doug Lamborn – the longest-serving Democrat and Republican in the delegation, respectively – survived more spirited than usual primary challenges, and Democratic nominees Joe Neguse in 2nd District, Diane Mitsch Bush in the 3rd, Karen McCormick in the 4th and Jason Crow in the 6th had emerged from primaries of their own.

Neguse went on to win an open seat – left vacant by incumbent Jared Polis’s successful run for governor – and Crow did something Democrats had been trying to accomplish for decades by defeating Coffman, who was the only incumbent member of Colorado’s congressional delegation to lose last cycle.

It’s a much sparser playing field this time around, with the 3rd CD the only district featuring primaries.

U.S. Rep. Scott Tipton, the five-term Republican incumbent, is in a familiar spot, facing a first-time candidate claiming the mantle of the GOP’s angry grassroots, a challenge Tipton has easily survived twice before.

Lauren Boebert, the pistol-packing owner of Shooters Grill in Rifle, has a higher profile than Tipton’s previous challengers – she rocketed to fame in certain circles a few years back when she opened her restaurant, where all the waitresses pack heat, and again last fall when she challenged Democratic presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke on his plan to confiscate guns. With President Donald Trump’s endorsement, however, Tipton appears on track to survive another primary challenge.

Mitsch Bush, a former state lawmaker from Steamboat Springs and Routt County commissioner, is running again for the seat, but she’s again facing a primary for the Democratic nomination.

Last time, she prevailed in the primary over Glenwood Springs attorney Karl Hanlon and Durango activist Root Routledge. This time, she’s running against James Iacino, the former CEO of the Seattle Fish Co., the Denver-based seafood supplier his family founded more than a century ago.

Beyond the boundaries of the sprawling 3rd CD, though, the incumbents and their challengers can get busy whipping up votes for the General Election, since there aren’t any primaries to be found.

And for the first time in recent memory, one of Colorado’s incumbents doesn’t even have a major-party challenger – DeGette, who was first elected to the Denver-based 1st CD in 1996, has yet to draw a Republican opponent.

It’s been decades since the heavily Democratic district has been competitive – DeGette won her current term by defeating GOP nominee Casper Stockham by 50 percentage points – but until this year, the Republicans have always managed to recruit a candidate.

Stockham, who ran and lost twice for the seat, is running again this year, but after taking a circuitous route landed as the Republican nominee in the 7th CD, where he’s facing U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter, a Democrat serving his seventh term.

The incumbents in three of the remaining four districts are facing challenges from rookie candidates.

Neguse, a media darling and frequent cable news guest since being sworn in a little over a year ago, is facing a challenge in the 2nd CD from Republican Charlie Winn, a former flight surgeon and physician – slogan: “Vote Charlie. It’s a Winn for Colorado.”

In the 4th CD, Buck, who doubles as the chairman of the Colorado Republican Party, is running for a fourth term against Democrat Ike McCorkle, a Marine Corps veteran, and in the 5th CD, Lamborn is facing a challenge from Jillian Freeland, a retired midwife.

The suburban 6th CD appears to be vying with Tipton’s 3rd CD for the congressional race most likely to turn contentious, with Crow facing a challenge from former GOP state chairman Steve House, who briefly ran for governor in 2014.

Until late March, House and Stockham had been competing for the nomination, but Stockham, who lives in the 6th CD and had previously run in the 1st CD, jumped at the last minute to run against Perlmutter across town in the 7th CD, making him the first Coloradan in memory to seek office in three different congressional districts in a two-year span.

With Stockham out of the picture, House sailed to the nomination at the GOP assembly over a pair of political newcomers, Ryan Gonzalez and John Szemler.

By most measures, the Crow-House race should be the one to watch, with the contest for Tipton’s seat having potential to turn into a real competition, though both seats also appear to favor the incumbents at this point.

By this time next year, however, the relatively orderly 2020 congressional election landscape could be a distant memory. Colorado is almost certain to gain an eighth congressional district after this year’s census and ahead of the 2022 election, making for what should be an epic battle in both parties for the chance to serve as its inaugural representative.

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