Colorado Politics

SONDERMANN | In the current news cycle, the I’s – impeachment and Iowa – have it

There is much discussion these days of the increasingly rapid news cycle – of how events seem to be on fast-forward. What seems monumental in the moment is old news very quickly.

Though purveyors of that observation apparently have never been to Iowa, where nothing seems to move at an accelerated pace.

That said, and with the intensity of the last few days between the impeachment trial (without witnesses) and the Iowa caucuses (without results), let me offer some quick-take perspective.

First, impeachment:

  • Given Trump’s utter domination of his party, it seems almost a profile in courage for Republican senators to use modest words such as “inappropriate” or “wrong” (anything short of “perfect”) with reference to the President’s infamous phone call. My, how our standards have withered.

  • The lasting impact of this episode will be three-fold: First, the diminishment of standards for Presidential behavior. Second, the further shift in power away from the legislative branch and toward the executive. Treating Congress with some combination of dismissal and contempt is now OK. And third, the ludicrous theory advanced by Alan Dershowitz (who should know better) that abuse of power, no matter how gross, is not grounds for impeachment. Others can write this legal treatise. I’ll just note that true conservatives should be at the front of the line in rejecting such dangerous nonsense.

  • Given the disdain most Democrats have long had for John Bolton, it is quite the sight to see them now refer to him with almost a reverence.

  • Unlike the Clinton impeachment, which accrued to his political benefit, Trump is unlikely to get a bounce out of his inevitable acquittal, no matter how aggressively he barnstorms the country and plays the aggrieved party. For a whole lot of Americans, the Clinton case was just about sex. While the evidence against Trump has clearly pointed to an abuse of power. Whatever many swing voters think as to whether such conduct is impeachable, they find it wrong and undignified, and not exactly an argument for his reelection.

  • In the very unlikely event of a deadlocked Democratic convention this summer, look for Adam Schiff’s name to become part of the conversation.

  • With acquittal in the offing, and with that outcome probably inevitable from the start, Democrats must decide whether to let the matter now drop or to pursue the fallback sanction of a censure vote. At the same time, and while I have opined that impeachment was warranted, Democrats can reflect on whether censure might have been the more strategically prudent course from the get-go. That debate would still have brought forward the evidence without serving as such an immense distraction from the Presidential race.

Speaking of which, let’s turn, ever-so-slowly, to Iowa.

  • One can’t help but think of Will Rogers’ famous line: “I don’t belong to an organized political party. I’m a Democrat.”

  • There is no way or reason to minimize this mess. As of this writing, it is 18 hours past caucus time without a single tally announced. And we’re now just learning that any results are still several hours off. Think of your favorite word or phrase to connote a total travesty and it applies here. I’m personally fond of “Dumpster fire,” but “fiasco” or “train wreck” or a dozen others will also do the trick.

  • Ultimately, the winners in Iowa will be the losers. And the losers will be the winners. Let me explain. Those who finished at the top of the heap (my results-free surmise is that this includes Buttigieg and Sanders, along with perhaps a stronger-than-expected Klobuchar) will be deprived of the customary bounce out of Iowa. On the flip side, those who under-performed (informed guess: Biden, for sure, and perhaps a ho-hum Warren) will not pay the customary price and could not have been more eager to get out of dodge with the whole thing still a muddle.

  • Most of all, Iowa will not play its usual role in winnowing the field. All of the big names will move forward, as will the lesser candidates.

  • If Buttigieg is proven correct in delivering a victory speech late last night, there will have been a tell in some of the Iowa polling over recent weeks. Many of those polls showed a Sanders surge. But they also evidenced that Iowa Democrats by more than a 2:1 ratio placed a higher value on defeating Trump than on a total issue alignment. If carried forward into other states, as I suspect will be the case, that electability mandate will be a headwind for the more polarizing candidates in the field. Buttigieg and perhaps Klobuchar fared well as more moderate, “electable” Democrats, yet more inspired and less geriatric than Biden.

  • If Iowa is an indicator – and that “if” has to be doubly underscored under the circumstances, Biden may face a very tough road ahead. He’ll never win the passion or ideology primary. If he can’t dominate the electability primary, he’s finished.

  • Of course, there’s an elephant in the room (or very large donkey) who did not play in Iowa yet emerged as a winner due to the debacle. That is Michael Bloomberg. His richly-fueled message of basic competence has to be even more attractive the day after.

  • If Buttigieg and Klobuchar emerge from Iowa strengthened (even if less than it would have been) and Biden is weakened with Bloomberg and his billions still in the wings, the centrist lane to this nomination just got more crowded. While still a longshot, if you were willing to bet yesterday that no one will arrive in Milwaukee with a majority of delegates and the nomination in hand, you should double down on that wager today.

  • Iowa’s role and process was under plenty of question long before last night. The state is decreasingly representative demographically of the country; and even less so of the Democratic Party. If yesterday’s total breakdown is the death knell for these caucuses, history will record it as a suicide.

While Iowa Democrats apparently rely on Pony Express to transmit results – the new-fangled phone app having been a bust – the news cycle moves relentlessly forward. The President’s State of the Union speech tonight should be quite the theater, followed tomorrow by the Senate vote to acquit. What a week. As New Hampshire awaits. 

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. His column appears online on Sundays and in print in Colorado Politics. Reach him at EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann

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