While Colorado businesses cheered the halt of a new round of tariffs on Chinese exports that were slated to go into effect Dec. 15, whether the Phase 1 deal is a Christmas gift or coal in the stocking is undecided.

The 86-page deal announced Dec. 13 hasn’t been made public. So far, the U.S. trade representative has released only a fact sheet with bare-bones details on the agreement. 

The first, and most welcome to Colorado industries such as those who make outdoor recreational clothes and goods, is a U.S. cancellation of a a 15% additional tariff on $160 billion of Chinese exports that was due to go into effect on Dec. 15.

Another tariff on Chinese exports that also involved outdoor recreational productions will be halved from 15% to 7.5%, although the date of that reduction has not been announced. However, those goods and others, totaling $250 billion, are still under a 25% tariff that was put in place by the Trump administration during the course of the 18-month trade war. That’s being left in place as a negotiating tool.

The Outdoor Industry Association’s Patricia Rojas-Ungar said in a statement on Dec. 13 that “cancellation of some tariffs and reduction of others for products like outdoor apparel, footwear and equipment is welcome holiday season news to the outdoor industry and consumers, but more needs to be done — and done soon — to provide a stable economic environment so our outdoor businesses can innovate and plan ahead,” 

Rojas-Ungar noted that outdoor companies have already paid $2.6 billion more in tariffs in 2019 than in 2018, and that has led those companies to do all they can to absorb the tariffs and avoid increasing prices on their goods to consumers.

There’s also the possibility that the deal isn’t as good or the information not as reliable as one might hope.

Rich Harper of OIA told Colorado Politics earlier this week that they are hopeful that the deal is for real and “are cautiously optimistic.”

However, yesterday, OIA announced that another $1 billion in tariffs were paid by U.S. companies in October alone. A similar amount was paid on tariffs in September. 

Outdoor footwear, such as hiking boots, now carry a total tariff of 52.5%, an OIA statement said Thursday. The phase one deal did not change those tariffs. 

“The latest tariff data continues to show that American outdoor companies have experienced significant economic hardship as a result of punitive taxes piled on already high tariffs for many outdoor products. And the recent phase-one deal fails to fully wipe away the burden that tariffs are adding to outdoor businesses,” Rojas-Ungar said Thursday. “We hope the recent move marks a turnaround with China and that we soon see a comprehensive deal to include a complete rollback of all existing punitive tariffs on outdoor products.”

According to Reuters, the Phase 1 deal would require China to buy $200 billion more in American products and services over the next two years, double the existing rate. That would include $50 billion in agricultural products.

The fact sheet from the U.S. trade representative said that the agreement addresses “non-tariff barriers” to U.S. agriculture in areas such as meat, poultry, seafood, ride, dairy, infant formula, horticultural products, animal feed and feed additives, pet food, and products of agriculture biotechnology.

China is Colorado’s No. 3 trading partner, behind Canada and Mexico. According to the US-China Business Council, trade with Beijing supported 10,900 jobs in Colorado in 2016, and hit a high of $755 million in exports in 2015. Since the trade war started, however, those exports have dropped to $647 million as of 2017. Meat and meat products are the state’s top export to China, at $111 million, also as of 2017.

The American Farm Bureau Federation indicated some skepticism, as have other China experts, on whether China could double its agricultural purchases in the timeframe outlined in the Phase 1 deal. American Farm Bureau Federation economic Veronica Nigh said Tuesday that trade between China and the U.S. “would have to expand pretty significantly” in order to double those exports. She did add, however, that given what China is buying from the rest of the world, “there’s probably room there.”

Nigh added that before the trade war China was the U.S.’s No. 2 market for agriculture. “While we certainly are exporting a lot of U.S. ag products to a wide variety of countries, it takes a lot of those smaller countries to add up to one China,” Nigh said. “Bringing China back as a sizable market for U.S. agriculture is certainly critical to U.S. farmers’ ability to continue to grow their businesses.”

The deal could be signed as soon as next month.