The seemingly endless days of the political preliminaries are winding down and the calendar is compressing. The new year will be upon us in four short weeks. A month later, come Feb. 3, the first voters will actually have their say in caucuses across Iowa. Nine months after that, to the day, the November general election will conclude (one can only hope) a wild year of political twists and turns.

It is human nature to look to the future as a straight line, an extrapolation of the past, a one foot in front of the other march forward. While any predictions as to 2020 should come with a “buyer beware” warning, there is one bet which is close to a sure thing. Namely, that the political course will be anything but linear and unswerving. Peripheral vision will be just as critical as seeing what lies directly ahead.

A year from now, when turnkey authors are generating instant recaps of the political year, the reference point is far more likely to be to zigs and zags, and unforeseen detours and lurches, than to any kind of direct route.

So sitting here in the relative calm before the coming storm, let’s look at a number of ways this race could deviate and diverge from the straight, narrow, foreseen and well-trodden path. Let’s do so by considering some “what ifs”.

What if the Democratic contest becomes a slog with no candidate emerging as the clear frontrunner? What if, for instance, Buttigieg wins Iowa; Warren claims a close, neighboring-state win in New Hampshire; Sanders successfully navigates the Nevada caucuses; and Biden then holds serve in South Carolina?

What if Super Tuesday is then inconclusive? With Warren, Sanders and Klobuchar all winning their respective home state? With a split decision between Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado; and something approaching a dead heat in California? And so on through the rest of March and April?

What if there is no bandwagon to join?

What if, despite most prognostications, Warren is unable to dispatch Sanders and solidify the left-wing base? What if, instead, the two of them grind each other into some relative parity? What if at the March debate Biden has a Rick Perry moment and can’t recall the third pillar of his three-point education plan?

On the other side, what if during week three of the Senate impeachment trial the Washington Post goes live with a bombshell report of another instance of President Trump trying to leverage a foreign government for personal gain? In Trump’s closet, there is always the risk of another shoe dropping.

What if reporters and congressional leaders are able, at last, to pore through Trump’s tax returns? What if the reality is something less than the business prowess he boasts?

What if January becomes February and Trump’s approval rating drops another five points? What if Mitch McConnell, a heartless pragmatist if ever there was one, concludes that his Senate majority is gone with Trump atop the ticket?

What if Rupert Murdoch arises some morning, takes in the latest Trump Twitter war, and decides the president is permanently damaged goods leading a sinking GOP ship?

Of course, American election years do not provide some kind of respite from world events. What if Mexico implodes economically and in terms of any rule of law? What if, God forbid, Islamic terrorists take down a couple of jetliners? Or blow up a sports arena? What if China decides to test Trump and escalates the trade war? What if Iran unleashes the dogs of war against a leaderless Israel? What if Putin decides he’d like a dacha in Estonia?

What if a weak holiday retail season (too soon to tell) presages a consumer-driven economic slowdown? What if China accuses the United States of meddling in Hong Kong and retaliates by dumping billions of U.S. Treasury notes?

What if a handful of American athletes kneel during the playing of our national anthem at the Tokyo Olympics? What if another school shooting makes Columbine and Sandy Hook look like walks in the park? What if a Category 5 hurricane destroys a populated swath of Texas next September? What if Ruth Bader Ginsburg succumbs to illness and infirmity four months into the year?

And what political turns are in store next summer and fall?

What if no candidate enters the Democratic Convention within 100 delegates of a majority? What if it turns into the first multi-ballot convention since 1952 and Adlai Stevenson’s nomination? What if, after four ballots, Barack Obama is called in to serve as broker?

What if elements of the anarchist left respond to the dismissal of Sanders and Warren by torching two blocks of downtown Milwaukee?

What if some early-August poll shows 40 percent of the country dissatisfied with both presidential candidates and some latter-day, Ross Perot-style billionaire decides to throw his hat in the ring guided by a bipartisan team of top consultants? (Paging Mark Cuban.)

What if Trump skips out of the second presidential debate on two-hours notice, claiming the moderator is biased and representative of “fake news”?

What if voters dispatch the incumbent president next November, but he refuses to concede and disputes the result, pointing to a phony (his word) impeachment proceeding or alleged Russian collusion with his opponent or inevitable voting irregularities in some obscure locale or whatever the grievance du jour?

What if the Electoral College yields a different victor than the popular vote winner for the third time in the last six elections? While the Electoral College remains determinant, how do you induce a country already deeply polarized and on-edge to accept such an outcome?

Anyone who looks to the coming year from a static mindset is missing the very dynamic picture. The only certainty is that there will be variables. Plenty of them. Whether your role in this election is that of an engaged activist or a partisan cheerleader or just a diligent, conscientious voter, I offer two bits of advice. First, expect the unexpected. Second, buckle up.

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. His weekly column appears every Wednesday in Colorado Politics. Reach him at EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann