The announcement this week from Scott Pruitt of the Environmental Protection Agency that he would rescind the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan is, not surprisingly, welcome news to Colorado’s coal industry, as well as to the communities the industry supports.

But whether the end of the Clean Power Plan will actually change anything in Colorado coal country is another matter.

Elected officials in some of the  Colorado counties and communities with coal mines aren’t sure that the Trump administration’s action will actually make a difference for the industry. They cite lower prices for natural gas than for coal, and decisions by electric utilities to move away from coal to natural gas and renewables. 

But it’s not that the news wasn’t welcome, even if it’s just a perception that the Trump administration is ending what the industry and local officials call the “war on coal.”

“We’re tremendously pleased,” said Stan Dempsey, president and CEO of the Colorado Mining Association.

He believes the Clean Power Plan was “jammed down the throats” of the American people as a way to stop people from using so much electricity as well as a way to subsidize renewables, such as wind and solar.

The Trump administration’s decision will take federal pressure off electric utilities, Dempsey told Colorado Politics, which will allow those utilities to decide whether to burn coal or convert to natural gas. The coal industry is pleased that the EPA recognizes that coal is an important source of affordable electricity, Dempsey explained. The decision also recognizes the rule of law, he said, pointing to the 2016 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that put the Clean Power Plan on hold.

The problem for the industry isn’t only federal, Dempsey said. It’s also in Colorado, where lawmakers in 2010 passed legislative action – the Clean Air Clean Jobs bill – that cost the industry 1,000 jobs. “This was a bipartisan attack on the coal industry,” Dempsey added, one he said was led by Republicans backed by the natural gas industry.

But Dempsey thinks Colorado’s coal industry is already seeing signs of recovery, with a million-ton increase in coal production in the last year and the potential for a Delta County mine that has been shuttered for the last few years to re-open.

The downturn in Colorado’s coal industry has been dramatic. In 2012, according to data from the mining association, Colorado coal mines produced 29.5 million tons, with 9.1 million tons staying in Colorado. That produced 2,248 mining jobs, with average pay and benefits at $115,759 per year. The state raked in $13.9 million in severance and sales taxes that year.

Data from 2016 tells a different story. Colorado’s seven remaining mine companies produced 12.5 million tons of coal, with more than half staying in Colorado. The number of jobs dropped by nearly half, to 1,211, although average pay increased by more than $20,000 per year. But severance taxes, which pay for mining impacts on local communities, dropped to $5.9 million.

Those are good-paying jobs that are hard to replace, said Commissioner Doug Atchley of Delta County, home to the Bowie mine in Paonia. But he doesn’t see those jobs coming back in any big way anytime soon, nor does he think the EPA decision will make much of a difference.

Atchley noted that two mines have closed in Delta in recent years; one because of an underground fire and the other because of market conditions and poor quality coal.

The switch from coal to natural gas for electric utilities is an economic decision, Atchley told Colorado Politics. “There’s no incentive for electric companies to build new coal-fired plants,” but there’s also no certainty that the EPA decision will last beyond the Trump administration or through the next 50 years, he said.

Delta County lost 800 high-paying jobs with the closure of the two mines (Elk Creek and West Elk), and in a county of just 30,000 residents, that’s a huge loss. “We weren’t happy with the Clean Power Plan in the first place,” Atchley said, but the county has since put things in motion to diversify the local economy, believing the more diversified, the less vulnerable the county and its residents will be to these kinds of job losses. He also noted that agriculture is still the number one industry in the county, and long term, “we all need to eat.”

Another 250 mining jobs, down from 450, are in Routt County, the home to a Peabody Energy mine in Oak Creek. Commissioner Doug Monger welcomes the end of the war on coal with the EPA announcement. Monger explained that the Peabody mine, which produces high quality, low sulfur coal, is just 10 miles from the local power plant, and the coal goes directly to the plant, not to anywhere else in Colorado, the East Coast or to China. “How great a carbon footprint is that!,” he said.

“I get incensed that the coal industry gets singled out for carbon dioxide” when greenhouse gases are caused by other things, too, Monger said, citing people who he said just drive too much. The county is trying to be as supportive as possible for its coal industry, but even Monger says that once coal-fired plants go away, they’ll never come back.  

“We want to be the last dog standing with our coal mine,” Monger said.

Rio Blanco County, in northwestern Colorado, is home to two mining companies: the Colowyo, in Meeker; and the Blue Mountain mine in Rangely. Mayor Regas Halandras of Meeker said people in his community are happy about the decision, but he doesn’t expect to see any big changes from it. The Meeker mine produces 50 high-paying jobs, Halandras said, and that’s a big deal for a community of just 2,500 people. “You can’t make up [that kind of income] anywhere else,” he added.

Halandras said one thing he’s watching for is a pending decision by a Craig power plant to shut down one of its coal-fired towers, noting that what affects Craig affects Meeker.

“I don’t know if [the EPA decision] will keep that tower online,” he said.

The EPA decision is a relief, one that gives Meeker and its coal neighbors three or four years of breathing room, Monger said. In the meantime, Meeker is also looking for ways to diversify its economy, to one that is not so energy-dependent.

“It’s definitely a relief, but one that’s short-lived,” he said. “The odds are against coal.”