Colorado Politics

Bill Clinton’s three-stop Colorado tour a sign that state really is in play

After months of doubt, Colorado is rocking as a swing state once again. The proof is in the polls, the uptick in political advertising and the all-star team of surrogates crisscrossing as Election Day next Tuesday closes in.

Polls this week suggest a dead heat in Colorado between presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and the double-digit lead incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet has enjoyed over Republican El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn has narrowed.

In results compiled Wednesday, Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli said Clinton, a Democrat, is clinging to a lead of 1 percentage point after maintaining an average 7-point lead in recent polls. Ciruli said the swing is due to the letter FBI director James Comey sent to Congress last week to say he was reopening an investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server.

“All hell broke loose last Friday with the Comey letter, and she hasn’t recovered yet,” Ciruli said. “It may dissipate, meaning this is the peak of it, or the lines might cross by next Tuesday.”

SurveyMonkey released a poll Monday suggesting Trump, a Republican, had moved to within 3 points in Colorado, and Glenn trailed by just 2.

“Republican voters are essentially coming home,” said Jon Cohen, vice president of survey research for Survey Monkey, which does national polling in partnership with The Washington Post,

A previous SurveyMonkey poll on Oct. 17 had Clinton up by 9 points in Colorado, while Bennet was up by 10.

“When you have a 3-, or 4- or 5-point presidential contest, the odds a Senate race is going to be dramatically different than that are slim,” Cohen said.

Campaign signals

Besides white evangelicals and older voters, Glenn also appears to be picking up support from the 7 percent who say they support Libertarian Gary Johnson for president but not Libertarian Senate candidate Lily Tang Williams or others, Cohen said.

A YouGov/CBS News poll last week indicated that 3 percent of likely voters are considering one of the six third-party or unaffiliated Senate candidates.

“That’s a big number, and I think it’s a reason for the closeness in the final days,” Cohen said.

Donald Trump made two stops in Golden and Greeley last weekend, and running mate Mike Pence, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Donald Trump Jr. went to other Colorado locations this week. Former presidential candidate Ben Carson will be in Coiorado Springs for a rally at 1:30 Friday at The Classical Academy in Colorado Springs, before events in Castle Rock and Aurora.

Chelsea Clinton stopped in Aurora and Boulder this week, and Bill Clinton will be in Pueblo, Denver and Fort Collins Friday.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, a popular figure among Colorado Democrats during his primary run, will lead a campaign rally in Colorado Springs Saturday.

Trump, himself, has headlined five Colorado events since Oct. 3. Hillary Clinton has led One Colorado rally.

“If Bill Clinton is here on Friday with three events that’s a sign we’re in play,” Ciruli said.

TV time

As the races have narrowed, TV advertising has surged.

A 9Wants to Know and Rocky Mountain PBS News analysis this week indicated that candidates and outside groups have spent at least $14.2 million on more than 15,000 TV ad spots across Colorado, including $2.6 million by the Clinton campaign, which had not advertised heavily in the state until recently, and $3.7 million by Trump’s campaign.

On Monday, Bennet’s campaign dropped $254,496 on TV ads through Election Day. Glenn has spent $92,243 in the entire last month, according to Federal Communications Commission records.

“Michael Bennet’s recent media buy is nothing but a last-ditch effort to appeal to Coloradans as his campaign stalls and mine surges in this final week,” Glenn said in a statement.

State Republican Party chairman Steve House predicted two weeks ago that the polls would narrow once voters learned more about Glenn, noting that the challenger had lacked statewide name recognition and had only recently began airing TV ads.

“As Democrats go up on TV with desperate ads and rush surrogates to the state, Republicans are surging up and down the ballot in Colorado,” House said Wednesday. “With the FBI’s renewed investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email arrangement, voters are realizing they simply cannot trust the Democratic nominee or politicians like Michael Bennet who are incapable of standing up to her corruption.”

Bennet campaign spokeswoman Alyssa Roberts expressed confidence this week, noting that the election started when ballots were mailed out on Oct. 17.

“Ballots have been coming in for weeks now and we’re confident Michael will win because he’s worked with both parties to get things done for Colorado, while Darryl Glenn’s hyper-partisan agenda is out-of-touch with mainstream Coloradans,” she said.

Clinton’s Colorado campaign declined to discuss her recent ad buy but cited its longstanding, aggressive ground game.

“Hillary Clinton and our coordinated campaign have been running hard in Colorado for months, talking with voters about her plans to build an economy that works for everyone, not just those at the top,” said Emmy Ruiz, the campaign’s Colorado director.

Cohen, the SurveyMonkey pollster, said the surprises that could sway the election are over. Now it’s a grind to the finish line for the campaigns.

“This election is going to hinge on get-out-the-vote efforts and turnout, rather than anything else voters may learn about the candidates,” he said.

Tags bunch slider

PREV

PREVIOUS

YESTERYEAR: Republicans test waters to challenge Wirth’s bid for another Senate term

Twenty-five Years Ago this week in The Colorado Statesman … So far only one Republican had emerged to challenge U.S. Sen. Tim Wirth, who was gearing up to run for a second term in 1992, but plenty of others were sniffing around. Former state Sen. Jim Brandon and Denver GOP activist Gloria Roemer – both […]

NEXT

NEXT UP

? Colorado’s doctor-assisted suicide risks legal dispute if voters approve

Popular opinion surveys show Colorado is likely to be propelled into an uncertain area of law next week when voters decide whether to allow doctor-assisted suicides for terminally ill persons. Sixty-five percent of Denver-area registered voters surveyed in a Ciruli Associates poll in September said they would vote for the legalized suicides. Twenty-five percent opposed […]


Welcome Back.

Streak: 9 days i

Stories you've missed since your last login:

Stories you've saved for later:

Recommended stories based on your interests:

Edit my interests