Bennet under pressure on Iran nuke deal amid reelection backdrop
Every day that goes by without Sen. Michael Bennet making a decision on the Iran nuclear deal, the pressure builds.
Bennet, a Democrat, has been buffeted by a deluge of ads, petitions and op-eds on the proposed agreement that rises as the number of Democratic senators who remain undecided dwindles. The latest whip count shows that only a dozen have yet to declare themselves before the Sept. 17 vote, and Bennet is one of them.
Which explains why the first question Bennet was asked during a Wednesday session at the Colorado Oil & Gas Association’s annual conference in Denver wasn’t about hydraulic fracturing or crude exports, but Iran.
The suspense was short-lived. “I haven’t taken position yet and I won’t take one today,” Bennet informed the crowd at the Colorado Convention Center.
“One [reason] is that I want to make sure I get this vote right,” he added.
For a senator entering a reelection year with shaky poll numbers – although so far without a strong Republican challenger – there’s also a political calculus. The White House is urging Democrats to stand behind President Obama supporting the deal, which calls for limits and inspections on Iran’s nuclear capability in exchange for lifting economic sanctions.
Meanwhile, Bennet is sure to face charges of being weak on the threat of a nuclear Iran as well as being a rubber stamp for the Obama administration if he agrees to back the bargain.
“If he supports the deal, I think he will certainly pay a political price,” said Republican strategist Dick Wadhams. “It won’t be the defining issue, but it will add to the characterization of a guy who’s always there for Obama, and that’s a dangerous place to be for a Colorado Democrat in 2016.”
Even so, “I would be a surprised if Michael Bennet comes out against the deal,” said political analyst Floyd Ciruli.
“If you look down the list of people who are undecided, many of them are what I would call foreign-policy liberals, people who believe in the president’s position, that is, negotiations to avoid war,” said Ciruli.
“I’m just going to be surprised if he breaks out of that,” Ciruli added. “Now obviously, he’s getting a lot of pressure.”
Some of that comes from Senate Republicans attempting to cobble together enough Democratic votes to override a presidential veto, but for Bennet, the more relevant concern going into an election year would be the vociferous opposition to the deal by Jewish leadership in Colorado and nationally.
Craig Silverman, a KNUS-AM talk-show host and former prosecutor, said, “the pressure is enormous,” citing the opposition of top Jewish organizations such as the Anti-Defamation League, B’nai B’rith and AIPAC.
“I can’t speak for the Jewish community, but people feel strongly about it,” Silverman said. “I know my rabbi – who avoids politics pretty much in the synagogue and leads a congregation that’s probably overwhelmingly Democrat versus Republican – came out at a Friday night service urging everybody to write to Bennet and tell him to vote no.”
Opponents of the agreement include past Bennet contributors such as Richard M. Sapkin, managing principal of Edgemark Development in Denver.
Would he switch his vote if Bennet were to back the deal? “Michael is a very good friend,” Sapkin said. “I’ll leave it at that.”
Silverman pointed to a letter from Front Range rabbis, including Rabbi Joe Black of Denver’s liberal Temple Emanuel, in the Intermountain Jewish News, opposing the agreement.
“I think every reasonable person is putting pressure on Michael Bennet to reject this deal,” Silverman said. “And on the other side is the Obama administration, with a President who just said that the only people opposing this are the ‘crazies.’ Come on.”
Those in favor argue that the nuclear deal is the only thing standing between the United States and a war with Iran. Among those running ads urging Bennet to back the agreement are the liberal Jewish group J Street and Moveon.org.
John Hereford, a past Bennet contributor who heads Oak Leaf Energy Partners in Denver, said he favors the agreement but would support Bennet in 2016 no matter how he votes.
“It wouldn’t affect the way I feel about him. He’s got my support regardless,” Hereford said. “These are tough calls.”
At the COGA session, Bennet said he has sought out expert opinion from intelligence officers and Israeli and other Middle East military officials since the proposal was unveiled July 14.
“I think there’s a strong argument to be made this is the largest state exporter of terrorism in the world,” Bennet said. “There’s a strong argument to say they’ve never done anything to earn any validation or ratification of any nuclear program at all. And Israel is not an empty threat, it’s a real threat.”
Having said that, he added, “I have come to the conclusion that there is not a better deal available . . . So the question is, this deal versus no deal.”
Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, who appeared with Bennet at the session on Wednesday, argued that no deal was better than a bad deal.
“The goal of the entire Iranian negotiation was to eliminate the nuclear capability of Iran. This agreement does not do that,” Gardner said. “Instead, as one commentator has stated, it provides a patient pathway to a bomb.”
Foes of the agreement made another push with the release Wednesday of a letter to Congress signed by nearly 200 retired admirals and generals urging a “no” vote.
So far 29 Democratic senators have thrown their support behind the deal, which means the president needs only five more to block a veto override. Only two Senate Democrats, New Jersey’s Robert Menendez and New York’s Charles Schumer, have joined Republicans in opposing the bargain.
“I’m going to be very, very surprised if he’s going to support overturning a veto,” Ciruli said. “And one reason why – it won’t pass. In other words, this would be a completely futile vote. The Republicans won’t get enough Democrats to overturn a veto. They won’t get it in the House at all, and, as best I can tell, the votes are getting very slim in the Senate.”
If Bennet does decide to oppose the agreement, however, Wadhams said, “He needs to do it soon, while the outcome is still in doubt.”
“If enough Democratic senators push it over the top and then he says he’ll vote against it, that doesn’t count,” Wadhams said.
Rep. Ed Perlmutter became the first Democrat in Colorado’s delegation to announce a decision on the deal, saying Thursday he would support it, that he believes it “reduces and limits Iran’s ability to develop or manufacture nuclear weapons and is in America’s best interests.”
No leading Republican has entered the race against Bennet yet, despite polls showing only lukewarm support for his reelection bid. Meanwhile, Bennet has amassed a $3 million war chest for what is touted as a pivotal race for control of the Senate.
“Obviously, the stakes on this go beyond politics,” said Wadhams. “But if Sen. Bennet had the courage to vote against it, I think it would go a long way to help him in his reelection.”
Ciruli agreed. “It’s going to be a significant issue, primarily because Republicans are going to be talking about it,” he said, suggesting that Bennet could well lose support among Jewish Democrats if he backs the deal.
“But keep in mind, who are they going to give that money to?” Ciruli said. “There are a host of issues on which they deal with the President, the Democratic Party, and Michael Bennet, and this is one of them. But people can put that aside as they go down the road here, particularly if Bennet looks strong. They also would like to be on the side of the next U.S. senator.”
Bennet’s lengthy deliberation on his vote has contributed to his reputation as a thoughtful, weigh-all-sides lawmaker, but the flip side is that Colorado’s senior senator might be starting to look indecisive or even fearful of making a tough call.
“The arguments have been made. There is no ambiguity on the pros or cons,” said Wadhams. “He cannot wait until it’s been decided. That would be cheap, and I think people would pick up on that.”
Meanwhile, the pressure shows no signs of abating.
“I’ll be interested in how much longer Michael Bennet is going to wait,” Ciruli said. “It’s getting toward the end here. There’s nobody much left.”
– valrichardson17@gmail.com


