Voter confidence in Democrats and Republicans regarding the handling of the economy is evenly split, according to recent polling, highlighting the challenge both parties face on a central matter ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

A survey released on Thursday from Third Way, a centrist-left think tank, found that both parties are tied at 38% when 2,000 respondents were asked which party they believe is better at tackling the economy. On inflation, Democrats hold a slight lead of 35% to the GOP’s 34%. The party holds a stronger lead over Republicans on the cost of living, 42% to 31%.

For Republicans, the findings serve as a bit of a wake-up call. The party has traditionally held the advantage in voters’ opinions on the handling of the economy, a matter that has remained at the forefront of voters’ minds for the last few election cycles. 

President Donald Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris made the economy a focal point of their campaigns, with the victorious president promising to lower costs on Day One and revitalize the economy through an “America First” agenda. 

But polling suggests that voters are not pleased with the results they have seen so far from the GOP trifecta in Washington. In August, a Third Way survey found that Republicans held a substantial lead over Democrats in handling the economy, with 42% to 36% support. They held a slight lead over inflation and trailed Democrats by only two percentage points in handling the cost of living.

The August poll came out after congressional Republicans successfully passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and signed it into law, legislation that the GOP has hailed as the largest tax cut for Americans despite opposition over the drastic cuts to Medicaid. 

The think tank found that nothing that occurred in the first six months of Trump’s second term on Capitol Hill and in the White House did much to alleviate voters’ concerns about the state of the country. However, many had eyes on how voters’ temperaments improved in the days and months following Trump’s signing the Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4. 

Six months later, voters are trending toward Democrats on the economy after they were underwater in the think tank’s summer survey, and they hold an 11-point lead on the cost of living compared to the survey released in August. Much of that has come after Trump’s tariffs have affected key voting blocs, such as farmers and small business owners.

But that does not mean Democrats can take a large victory lap. The centrist think tank found that, while Democrats are holding slight leads on key economic matters, they are unable to match what is needed to have a resounding victory in 2026.

“President Trump and congressional Republicans have ceded the advantage on these issues they held just one year ago,” Third Way wrote in its analysis. “The question is whether congressional Democrats can fully convince Americans that they will be focused on cost-of-living and not that scandal of the week.”

Several Democrats have largely attributed their 2024 losses, including Trump’s defeat of Harris, to the party’s failure to address kitchen-table matters and instead focusing on social and cultural matters. A handful of lawmakers came out in the aftermath of last year’s election to blame their party’s messaging on the economy and criticize the emphasis put on matters such as abortion or the LGBTQ community. 

Affordability has proven to be a winning message for Democrats this year. In November, Democrats dominated the three top elections of the 2025 cycle, with victories in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races and a historic win for Zohran Mamdani in New York City’s mayoral contest. 

Despite Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) favoring centrist agendas, and Mamdani turning heads with his democratic-socialist policies, all three candidates hammered hard on the economy and affordability to flip key areas and significantly outperform the GOP.

“Democrats really never dominated on trust on the economy, what we’ve been able to do is fight it to a draw in periods that have been very good for us electorally,” Matt Bennett, Third Way’s EVP of public affairs, told Politico Playbook. “What we need to do is at least keep it close, and I think that’s where we are.”