Downtown Denver’s recovery from the pandemic shutdown lags behind other downtowns nationwide due to crime, homelessness and high office vacancy rates, according to a Common Sense Institute study.

“None of the attempts to rejuvenate have been, so far, successful in restoring the downtown Denver activity of 2019,” the study’s authors said. “Since safety and security are paramount to would-be downtown visitors, it may be that enough time has not yet passed for Denver metro residents to absorb the message that downtown Denver has become safer and cleaner than it was in 2021 and 2022.”

CSI, which describes itself as a non-partisan research organization “dedicated to the protection and promotion of Colorado’s economy,” used data from a University of Toronto study of North American cities released in May to reach its findings.

Out of 55 cities surveyed, on some 80 criteria, Denver’s “foot traffic recovery is 11th lowest among U.S. cities for weekends, 20th lowest for weekdays, 18th lowest for working hours, and 12th lowest for after hours and whole weekends,” the study said. 

“I was surprised to see how much we were lagging,” said CSI Fellow Kelly Brough, former head of the Metro Denver Chamber of Commerce and a mayoral candidate last year. “I understand how important downtown is fundamentally to our success as a state.”

Downtown Denver Partnerships President and CEO Kourtny Garrett, while agreeing that downtown’s recovery is hampered by soaring office vacancy rates, disagreed with many of the study’s findings on foot traffic counts, crime rates and recovery efforts.

“We have vulnerabilities in our commercial office market. We certainly don’t shy away from that,” Garrett said. “Like most cities, we know that that is truly our greatest Achilles heel at this point.”

She added: “At the same time, we think there are a lot of points in the report that deserve more attention, and it really begins when you look at the geographic definitions.”

The university study, she said, “is really a fraction of downtown and mostly closely aligns with just the upper downtown corridor. Then, throughout the report, there’s another boundary that’s used that’s actually far wider than what the partnership and the city recognizes as downtown.”

DDP and the city use the boundaries that align with the city’s 2007 area plan, she said.

The study said that downtown Denver’s office building vacancy rate “more than doubled since 2019,” reaching its highest level of 24% in 2023.

“Downtown Denver has the highest office vacancy rate among Front Range cities with concentrated downtown offices at 23.8%, while Boulder has a vacancy rate of 18.9% and Denver Tech Center (DTC) a vacancy rate of 18.3%,” the study said. “Colorado Springs has a vacancy rate of 7.8% and Fort Collins a rate of 4.6%.”

That vacancy rate equates to 13.4 million square feet of vacant office and retail space in downtown, “the footage of eight Empower Field stadiums,” the study said. 

The study noted that net taxable sales have rebounded to 2019 levels, “but at a slower rate than elsewhere.”

“If Denver were recovering taxable sales at the average 92% rate of the other counties, it would have $646 million more in taxable sales in the first half of 2024,” the report said.

Downtown Denver’s crime rate and homelessness are hindering the recovery, the study suggested.

“Its crime rate has risen by 44% and its unsheltered homeless population has more than doubled since 2019,” the study said.

The Metro Denver Homeless Initiative’s January count showed the total number of homeless people in Denver ballooned from 5,818 last year to 6,539 this year. And the city saw only 150 fewer “unsheltered” homeless people when compared to last year’s count, despite the Hancock and Johnston administrations spending millions of dollars over the last several years.  

Denver Mayor Mike Johnston has insisted his strategy is working, and, among other things, touted moving more than 2,000 homeless people into temporary shelters since he took office in July 2023.

DDP’s Garrett said many Denver police officers’ efforts last year went to homeless camp sweeps, and that crime levels aren’t necessarily higher in 2024 but officers are paying more attention and issuing more tickets.

“I think we need to ask deeper questions about is that truly because crime has increased, or is that because (police) have been able to shift time to truly address some of the challenges that we’ve had,” Garrett said.

“Downtown Denver’s overall crime level has decreased from a peak in 2022,” the CSI report said. “In the first half of the year, there were 7,391 crimes. That decreased to 6,458 in 2023 and 6,466 in 2024.

“However, there has been a rebound in 2024. There was an average of 1,150 crimes per month in downtown Denver in the third quarter of 2024, the highest total of any year from 2019 to 2024.”

The report used Denver Police Department data.

Study authors identified what they described as a difficult environment for downtown businesses, with “expensive energy mandates” for building owners due to the Energize Denver Building Performance Policy, whose advocates argue would help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They cited a Building Owners and Managers Association study that estimated the cost of compliance to be $3.1 billion statewide.

The authors also cited Denver’s minimum wage in 2024 as “one of the nation’s highest” and concluded that it “burdens business owners.”

“This isn’t about blaming anybody, but it is about saying, ‘Hey, listen, there’s no question the pandemic has had a huge impact on cities around the world, but others are figuring out that recovery faster than us’,” Brough said.

She said the effort will require “lofty goals” and partnerships among residents, businesses and governments.

When asked why the study did not compare downtown crime rates and homelessness rates of similar-sized cities, Brough said the university study didn’t collect that data.

“City initiatives prioritize attracting new visitors and new residents more than recouping office worker traffic directly,” the study said. “The mayor’s homelessness and crime initiatives have yet to result in more foot traffic, and the expansion of Downtown Denver Authority has not yet been implemented.”

On Tuesday, Denver voters will decide whether to extend the Denver Downtown Development Authority, which was responsible for funding Union Station’s 2014 restoration. The measure will be voted on by residents, property owners and business owners within the authority’s current boundaries. The city estimates about 2,500 people are eligible to vote on the measure.

The funding mechanism, known as tax-increment financing, is expected to generate $570 million for the city to invest in development and beautification projects between 2025 and 2038, with money collected from sales and property tax revenues.

The yearly average of total daily pedestrian traffic in downtown stood at 253,128 in 2019 and is at 202,957 through September, according to DDP data.

“Convention business, for example, is about 92% pre-pandemic levels,” Garrett said. “Conventions have come back.”

Garrett added that retail leasing activity has increased with the newly refurbished blocks of the 16th Street Mall that have re-opened and “at least five property owners have told us that the leasing activity over the last three months has been greater than the last three years, and nearly every single business within those open blocks is reporting between 35-50% increased sales.”

“Denverites want to come back downtown,” she said. “We’re continuing to give them a reason to do that.”

When asked for comment on the study, Mayor Johnston’s spokesperson replied via email: “Downtown Denver is not just the backbone of our economy, but it’s the cultural, civic, and economy center of the Mountain West. Revitalizing downtown has been a priority for Mayor Johnston since day one, and we’re proud of the work we’ve accomplished in just one year, including closing all downtown encampments resulting in more than 350 blocks of downtown and beyond permanently closed to camping, accelerating 16th Street construction, and improving public safety by significantly reducing both violent crime and property crime.”

A copy of the study by CSI is available here.

Editor’s note: The original version of this story incorrectly said the Mayor’s office didn’t reply to emails seeking comment. An email reply was sent to The Denver Gazette Thursday.