A new poll shows Democratic candidates in the swing states of Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina are far outpacing Vice President Kamala Harris, raising the possibility of split-ticket voting on Election Day.

The surveys released Wednesday by the Cook Political Report showed Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) leading by double digits in their respective Senate races.

Gallego is leading Republican challenger Kari Lake by 13 percentage points, with 54% support to Lake’s 41%. He is up 4 points since the last survey, taken in August.

“He owes that lead to the fact that he’s getting 13% of Republicans and winning independents by 29 points, an eight-point shift in his favor since August,” Amy Walter and Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report wrote. “This shift of independents in Gallego’s direction is even more remarkable given that independents have shifted toward Trump by 13 points over that same time frame.”

Likely 2024 voters were surveyed across seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). View the poll toplines: https://t.co/gTAkZAbPt4 pic.twitter.com/1HE3Z6cKZ5

— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical)

October 2, 2024

In Arizona, Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by 2 points, which is within the margin of error. Her lead in the poll has remained the same since the August polling was conducted.

Rosen is also up 13 points, leading former Army Capt. Sam Brown 53% to 40%. Rosen’s lead has decreased by 5 points since August.

“In Nevada, Rosen is still winning 15% of Republicans,” Walter and Taylor wrote. “The independents break more closely, 46%-40%, and have improved for Brown by six points since our last poll. But this is further evidence that Rosen, who continues to have a massive financial advantage, is in a strong position, likely in part due to an abortion-focused message that is winning over key women voters.”

Rosen is running 5 points ahead of Harris in the state. The vice president is up 1 point over Trump in the survey, 48% to 47%. Nevada has had one of the largest head-to-head shifts after Trump led the state by 3 points in the August survey.

The survey also highlighted the 9% of voters who split their tickets between Trump and Democratic Senate candidates in Nevada and Arizona, noting that they came from mostly women without college degrees and those who earn less than $40,000 in Arizona. In Nevada, the split was among mostly white women.

North Carolina does not have a Senate race this cycle, but in the governor’s race, the poll also found Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leading Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC) by a whopping 24 points, 59% to 35%. The poll was taken the same day a CNN report came out alleging Robinson made controversial comments on a forum of a pornographic website.

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Harris and Trump remain tied in the swing state, with both candidates receiving 49% support. Harris’s level of support has decreased by 1 point since August’s survey. The survey also found Harris is leading in Michigan by 3 points, Wisconsin by 2 points, and Pennsylvania by 1.

The poll was conducted Sept. 19-25 among 2,867 likely voters across seven battleground states. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 4.8 points in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 4.9 points in Arizona and Nevada.