A lesson learned after half-a-century of involvement in Colorado politics is to be suspicious of coincidences. It wasn’t surprising when U.S. Rep. Ken Buck announced he was leaving Congress following a decade representing Colorado’s eastern outback in Congress. It was evident he hadn’t been a happy camper in Washington for some time. His ill-fated decision to assume the post as Colorado Republican Party chair several years ago also spoke to his growing disenchantment with politics and his desire to redirect Republican passions. It was startling, however, when he announced he was moving his departure date up to match a narrow, two-week window which afforded sufficient time to schedule a vacancy election for filling the remaining six months in his current term.

Though it’s doubtful bipartisan collusion was involved, the governor’s office was quick to schedule a vacancy election fewer than 48 hours after Buck’s announcement coinciding with Colorado’s June 25th primary election. It seems safe to assume they weren’t caught entirely by surprise. Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s first chief-of-staff and current ambassador to Tokyo, popularized the phrase “no crisis should be allowed to go to waste.” The little brother to this admonition is “no opportunity should be dismissed.” Discerning precisely who was trying to accomplish exactly what leads us down a trail into the twilight of rumor and supposition. Suffice it to say, something was happening.

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A reported jest by Buck that drew laughs at a recent luncheon alleged U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert’s behavior made George Santos look like a saint by comparison. So, we may assume whatever motives drove the congressman’s hasty departure did not include concern for assuring his colleague’s continued membership in Colorado’s Washington delegation. The Republican primary contest to select a candidate for November’s election has turned into another clown-car parade as eight candidates vie against Boebert for the District 4 nomination. Republicans, more than Democrats, have been afflicted by viral cases of, “Why not me?”

Boebert’s decision to flee her 3rd Congressional District seat in favor of District 4 struck many eastern slope Republicans as a carpetbagging intrusion that would predictably lead to voter embarrassment. Nonetheless, recent polling indicates the uninvited visitor commands 32% support among likely primary voters loyal to the MAGA creed and attentive to Boebert’s endorsement from former President Donald Trump. None of the remaining candidates were cracking single digits. Thus, Boebert appears a likely plurality victor. A vacancy committee selection would permit party leadership to signal a preferred alternative for rank-and-file Republicans. Of course, it would have helped if someone stepped forward to explain this was what they were attempting.

Left to chance, the plan backfired when delegates opted for Greg Lopez, former Mayor of Parker and twice-defeated candidate for governor, running as a placeholder who was not competing in the 2024 primary. The mayor defeated the suspected leadership favorite, former state Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg, in a narrowly decided final ballot. Lopez is a full-on, election-denying MAGA adherent. By blocking Sonnenberg’s dual listing on both the vacancy and primary ballots, it must be presumed he did Boebert a considerable favor. The Colorado Republican Party is not the same creature it has been in the past. It’s one thing to discover your base voters can no longer be herded, but when precinct committee persons fail to follow the lead of their captains and elected officials, a profound schism is inevitable – perhaps imminent.

The vacancy election engineered by Republicans spilled over into the Democratic contest in a surprising way. Ike McCorkle, who lost twice to Buck in previous elections, released an internal campaign poll showing him leading Boebert by 7% despite the district’s heavily Republican majority. This should have hinted at the potential general election weakness of the congresswoman but seems to have had little effect on the Republican vacancy committee. It wasn’t all that long ago when Republicans crossed over to support Democrat Betsy Markey of Fort Collins against Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in CD4. Two years later she was deposed by Cory Gardner as the largely rural district returned to form.

Despite greater name recognition, McCorkle ran third in the Democratic vacancy committee election, bested by former congressional staffer Trisha Calvarese. I received two calls last week, one from Logan County and the other from an Otero County Democrat asking me what I knew about the District 4 candidates. Truth was, I knew very little, and I recommended they check out candidate websites. Both callers were concerned McCorkle, a veteran of our Middle Eastern wars, was campaigning as a full-on supporter of Israel’s Gaza incursion. They were searching for an alternative. McCorkle’s comeuppance should be a warning for any Democrat running this year. The deaths of the World Central Kitchen workers can only move even more voters away from support for Israel’s scorched earth tactics.

The vacancy election may have accomplished for Democrats what it failed to achieve for District 4  Republicans – solidify support behind a single candidate, Trisha Calvarese, in both contests. If the McCorkle poll results are accurate, the never-Boebert vote should transfer to any Democrat. If Adam Frisch captures the 3rd District seat abandoned by Boebert, and the 4th rejects her carpetbaggage in November, Republicans could wind up with a single Republican in Colorado’s Congressional delegation (possibly none if El Paso County Republicans must contemplate a Dave Williams candidacy come June 26th) – not a result anyone might have predicted six months ago.

Trump remains a significant drag on the Republican ticket in Colorado. As British pundit Nate White noted last week, “You don’t need a particularly keen eye for detail to spot a few flaws in the man … his faults seem pretty hard to miss.” Ken Buck was among the first to perceive the train wreck ahead.

Miller Hudson is a public affairs consultant and a former Colorado legislator.