The 2024 election could put Democrats in a position to do something that’s never happened before in Colorado: hold a supermajority in both the state House and Senate. 

That could lead to controversial constitutional amendments being referred to the ballot from General Assembly Democrats, with protections for abortion topping the wish list.

There’s little doubt that Democrats will easily retain their hold on the state Senate, where they currently sit on a 23-12 advantage. But they are also targeting several Republican-held seats that could flip in 2024, giving the majority party that all-important 24th vote – and a supermajority.

The chamber faces several changes.

Term limits in the state Senate will bring to an end the legislative careers of seven members – five Democrats and two Republicans – with 18 seats in all up for election just over 13 months from now.

Republicans hold slim to strong voter registration advantages in some of the most hotly-contested Colorado Senate and House districts going into 2024.

But overperformance by Colorado Democrats in the 2022 general election, along with the Dobbs decision by the U.S. Supreme Court and coupled with a state GOP party weakened by infighting and poor fundraising, suggests those Republican voter advantages could be overcome. 

Heading into 2024, that potential overperformance by Democrats isn’t confined to Colorado.

ABC News recently reported on 30 congressional and legislative special election contests in 2023, where, “on average, [Democrats] have won by margins 11 points higher than the weighted relative partisanship of their districts.” It’s not only impressive, the ABC report said, it’s a potential sign of a Democratic wave election for 2024.

Key races: Colorado Senate

Democratic Rep. Marc Snyder of Manitou Springs hopes to claim the Senate District 12 seat currently held by term-limited Republican Sen. Bob Gardner of Colorado Springs. Snyder does not yet have a Republican challenger in a district that shows a 4 percentage point advantage for Republicans in voter registration.

Colorado Springs showed some of the strongest overperformance by Democrats in 2022 – voters there flipped two Republican-held House seats and a Republican-held Senate seat to Democrats. 

Scott Bright of Platteville announced Monday he is running on the Republican ticket for the Senate District 13 seat of term-limited Democratic Sen. Kevin Priola of Henderson. Priola changed his party affiliation in August 2022 from Republican to Democrat, which led to a short-lived court challenge by Republicans to recall him. 

Redistricting data from the state’s independent commission shows a half-percentage point advantage in voter registration for Democrats over Republicans. The district, which includes Greeley, is 46% Latino.

Democrat Matt Johnston of Brighton, who serves on the Brighton City Council, is also vying for the seat.

One race that has yet to garner any attention is Senate District 6, held by Republican Sen. Cleave Simpson of Alamosa. Republicans hold a 4.5 percentage point advantage in the district where 44% of voters are registered as unaffiliated. That contest has yet to draw a Democratic challenger.

Hot primaries among Democrats

State Rep. Judy Amabile of Boulder, a Democrat, is not alone in the primary to succeed term-limited Senate President Steve Fenberg in Senate District 10, a Democratic stronghold. Democrat Jovita Schiffer of Superior is running for the seat that also does not have a Republican challenger as of Sept. 25.

Senate District 19, which shows a 6 percentage point voter registration edge for Democrats, now has two Democratic challengers for the opportunity to succeed Democratic Sen. Rachel Zenzinger of Arvada, who is term-limited in 2024.

Rep. Lindsey Daugherty and Westminster City Councilman Obi Ezeadi, who was an intern for Zenzinger for part of the 2023 session, will face off in a Democratic primary. The race has yet to draw a Republican challenger.

In the Democratic stronghold of Senate District 28, represented by term-limited Democratic Sen. Rhonda Fields of Aurora, a Democratic primary is shaping up between Rep. Mike Weissman and Idris Keith, both of Aurora. A Republican challenger, Cory Parella, is also running.

Of the Senate races where incumbents are running, two Democrats – Cole Buerger of Glenwood Springs and Barbara Bynum of Montrose – have filed to run for Senate District 5, held by Sen. Perry Will of New Castle, who was appointed to the seat by a Republican vacancy committee in January after Sen. Bob Rankin resigned.

Will is also a candidate for the seat, where Republicans hold a nearly 8 percentage point advantage in voter registration.

Key races: Colorado House

Just like the Senate, the House is not expected to flip from Democratic to Republican control, with Democrats holding a 46 to 19 supermajority advantage.

However, there could be some opportunities for Republicans to take back a few of the seats they lost in 2022.

They would need to take three seats to erase the Democrats’ supermajority in the House. 

House District 19, which includes Erie, will be a rematch of the 2022 race between then-Republican Rep. Dan Woog and Democratic Rep. Jennifer Parenti. Parenti won by three percentage points in a race where a Libertarian candidate also took 2 percent of the vote. The district shows Republicans have a 1.2 percentage point advantage in voter registration over Democrats. 

A Republican primary is shaping up for the Colorado Springs House District 16, currently held by Democratic Rep. Stephanie Vigil. Republicans hold a 3 percentage point voter registration advantage in the district, but Vigil won her 2022 election by just over 2 percentage points. A Libertarian candidate took another 2 percent of the vote.

Just six lawmakers are term-limited in the Colorado House in 2024 – five Democrats and one Republican, Rep. Marc Catlin of Montrose. 

Some of those seats are already drawing hot primaries. 

The most contested race so far appears to be for House District 8 in Denver, currently represented by Rep. Leslie Herod, a Denver Democrat who will be term-limited next year.

The district has the highest Democrat voter registration advantage of any in the state, with Democrats holding a 52 to 5 percentage point advantage.

Six candidates have filed for the seat, although one lists an address in Berthoud, which would presumably make her ineligible for run for the seat since state law requires candidates to live in the districts they intend to represent. Candidate Christi DeVoe did not return a call for comment. She has not filed required documents with the Secretary of State’s office and missed one campaign finance filing due last July.

The other candidates are Auon’tai Anderson, vice president of the Denver Public Schools board of directors; Kwon Atlas; Victor Bencomo; Lindsay Gilchrist and Sharron Pettiford.

Of the six, Gilchrist leads in fundraising. 

Another hot Democratic primary is likely for the Lakewood-based House District 30, held by term-limited Rep. Chris deGruy Kennedy. His wife, Kyra, is running for the seat, along with Rebekkah Stewart and Rhiannon Wenning. 

Weissman’s House District 36 has already generated a three-way Democratic primary among Michael Carter, Bryan Lindstrom and Eric Olsen, with Republican challenger Pedro Espinoza awaiting the outcome. 

Finally, all is not hearts and flowers among Democrats, at least in Boulder.

One contest that has already drawn hints of racial friction among Boulder Democrats is House District 10, held by Rep. Junie Joseph of Boulder, who won her first term in 2022. Joseph, who is also a member of the Boulder City Council, is being challenged by fellow Democrat Tina Mueh.