The fall rush to our Colorado state elections begins right now. Every candidate in a competitive race should be working full-time to cover their districts with door-knocking, mail, lawn signs and money-gathering for media buys.

The statewide voter registration landscape for the election is fascinating. The parties are increasingly irrelevant as Colorado voters in great numbers are switching their registrations to unaffiliated. The situation is grimmer for the GOP as Republicans are underwater to Dems and Unaffiliated, with just barely above 1,000 new voters between July and August. Democrats have gained slightly more voters, though hardly enough to brag about.

The state’s unled cohort of people who have gone out of party boxes increased by 28,000 registrations this summer. It’s those voters that the GOP candidates will have to convince if they’re going to erode the Democrats’ dominance in the General Assembly. By active voter registrations, the prospects do not look good which may be one reason state Sen. Kevin Priola finally switched his affiliation.

In the 2022 General Assembly, Priola voted YES on 419 bills and NO on 69. State Sen. Chris Holbert, GOP minority leader, voted NO 257 times and YES 259 times. That history provides some guidance as to the bridge too far for Priola and his former party.

As for the current list of competitive state Senate races, the count is four to the Democrats and two to the Republicans. Here’s the run-down:

Current state Rep. Dylan Roberts-D is down by 2.6 active voter registrations in SD-8 to Matt Solomon-R, a twice-elected town council member in Eagle. But Roberts has a $104,000 lead in contributions on hand. That’s a huge advantage in the sprawling mountain district from Steamboat Springs to Winter Park to Vail. Roberts has spent his terms in the legislature particularly focused on health care pricing, wildfire management, alcohol sales, driver safety and law enforcement. Solomon owns a gun shop in Eagle and focuses on individual rights and fiscal responsibility. Advantage Roberts.

State Rep. Lisa Cutter-D wants to move to the state Senate. She’s competing against Tim Walsh-R, an Evergreen resident and entrepreneur. SD-20 spreads from Coal Creek Canyon, to Evergreen, to Morrison to south Jefferson County and leans 2.8 points to the Democrats with 46% of active voters unaffiliated. Though Walsh is a formidable business GOPer, he faces a daunting $41,000 gap in funding on-hand. Cutter sponsored and passed four wildfire bills and legislation to manage PFC, the forever chemical with cancer-causing risk. Advantage Cutter.

State Rep. Kyle Mullica-D, a nurse from Adams County, is running for SD-24 in the north metro area, mostly Adams County. He’s running against Courtney Potter-R, an Adams 12 member of the school board. Mullica’s interests focus on health care and the nursing profession. He attempted to prohibit flavored tobacco sales, but lost that one. Potter is a school-choice advocate and supports more funding for police. She’s down $41,000 to Mullica in funds on hand and 8 points in voter registration. Advantage Mullica.

State Rep. Tom Sullivan-D, former postal carrier and father to a son murdered in the Aurora theater shooting, is looking to join the state Senate. He’s opposed by Tom Kim, a business restructuring consultant. Sullivan has worked hard on Second Amendment issues to reduce gun violence. Kim takes another tack, focusing on personal security and law and order. With 47% of the district unaffiliated, and a two-point voter registration spread to Sullivan, the territory is tough for Kim. Sullivan also has an almost insurmountable $80,000 lead in cash on-hand. Advantage Sullivan.

Up north along the Front Range, Rob Woodward-R looks to retain his state Senate seat in SD-15 that includes Loveland, Estes Park and Lyons. His opponent, Janice Marchman, is a teacher in Loveland and served on the Thompson Valley School Board. Marchman actively supports reproductive rights and public schools. Woodward has a moderate legislation voting record.  He sponsored 25 bipartisan bills. Woodward has a $123,000 funding margin over Marchman. Advantage Woodward.

Finally, possibly the most interesting state Senate race pits state Rep. Tony Exum-D against current state Sen. Dennis Hisey. They’re vying for SD-2 in eastern Colorado Springs. Democrats have about a 1.8-point advantage for the seat, even though Colorado Springs is known as GOP territory. Exum sponsored 15 bills, 11 bipartisan. Hisey sponsored 24 bills with 19 bipartisan. Though other Democratic incumbents have a sturdy funding pot, Exum is down more than $42,000 to Hisey. Advantage Hisey.

Though the races have significant financial sums, the dollars are considerably smaller than in 2018, the last midterm election when control of the state Senate was up in the air. GOPers in general are still losing to the Democrats in the money competition, which continues to give the Dems an advantage when votes roll in come November.

Paula Noonan owns Colorado Capitol Watch, the state’s premier legislature tracking platform.