COVID-19 hospitalizations in Colorado are on pace to hit an all-time high by Nov. 10, potentially leading to thousands of new deaths and overwhelming the state’s capacity to provide critical care by the end of the year, a new report found.

A recent modeling report, issued by the state health department and the Colorado School of Public Health, found that the current rate of increase in hospitalizations could push the state beyond its ICU capacity as early as December, if social-distancing decreases due to holiday gatherings.

Even if social-distancing remains steady through the holidays, the state could run out of ICU beds by January. 

The state could see 7,600 total deaths due to the virus by the end of the year if the current trajectory is not changed, according to the report. As of Thursday, the state had seen 2,105 deaths due to COVID-19, and 2,278 deaths among cases.

If Coloradans decrease social-distancing by 10% due to holiday gatherings, deaths could rise to 10,000. A 20% decrease in social distancing would result in 13,400 deaths, according to the report.

“There is a small window to improve transmission control over the next few weeks,” Jonathan Samet, dean of the Colorado School of Public Health, said in a written statement. “To limit increasing infections and avoid peaks that could strain health care capacity over the next three months, a substantial increase in transmission control is needed.”

State officials have been sounding alarms over Colorado’s hospital capacity, warning that surge capacity, which could create several thousand extra hospital beds throughout the state, could take weeks to fully stand up.

One in every 219 Coloradans is currently infectious, and each infectious person gives the disease to another 1.57 people, on average, the new modeling found.

The seven-day average of diagnoses in the state continues to rise. On Thursday, it sat at 1,676 cases, nearly triple the spring peak of 624 cases on April 29.

As of Friday 82% of Colorado ICU beds were in use, and nearly 40% of ventilators. The percentage of people tested whose tests came back positive was nearing 8%, with the World Health Organization recommending levels under 5% for communities to reopen.

On Thursday the state set a new record for new diagnoses reported to the state: 2,171.