VOICES OF THE VOTERS: THE SHIFTING SUBURBS | Democrats, unaffiliateds on the rise in counties ringing Denver
Editor’s Note: This story is part of an occasional series to capture views among Coloradans.
When Democrat Dani Newsum moved with her family from Denver’s Park Hill to what is now Centennial in 1994, she found herself living in a part of Arapahoe County that was represented in Congress by a Republican and would be for another quarter-century.
“I was like, ‘Oh my God, I’m used to voting for people who win!’ ” Newsum said.
Now, she counts more yard signs for Joe Biden than Donald Trump in her leafy neighborhood, and her congressman is Democrat Jason Crow. “It’s been a revelation over the years to watch the evolution,” she said.
In south Jefferson County, Republican Peter Boddie remembers when his county leaned Republican, but “there’s definitely been a sea change,” he said, with Democrats winning state and local races in the county.
For decades, the path to victory in Colorado elections has led through the suburban counties ringing Denver — and that’s true now more than ever. Fifty years ago, Arapahoe, Douglas, Jefferson and Adams counties accounted for just over a quarter of Colorado’s population; they now hold more than a third of the state’s residents, as well as nearly 37% of the state’s 3.6 million active-status registered voters.
REGIONAL SNAPSHOT | Metro Denver suburbs
And as the suburbs have grown in importance politically, they also have migrated to the left over the past two decades. That’s especially true in the two most populous suburban counties, Arapahoe and Jefferson.
In the 1998, 2000 and 2002 elections, both of those counties voted Republican for president, governor and U.S. senator. In 2004, they both backed Republican incumbent George W. Bush for president and Democrat Ken Salazar for Senate. But in all seven even-year general elections since then, both Arapahoe and Jeffco have favored Democrats for all three key posts.
And in 2018, Arapahoe and Jeffco replaced several GOP county officials with Democrats. 2018 was also the year that Democratic neophyte Crow unseated five-term Republican incumbent Mike Coffman in the 6th Congressional District encompassing parts of Arapahoe, Adams and Douglas counties, becoming the first Democrat ever to win the district.
In October 2004, ahead of Bush’s re-election, there were 30% more registered Republicans than Democrats in the four suburban counties; only Adams County had more Democrats. By 2008, Democrats had gained a narrow lead in Arapahoe. And now there are nearly 11% more registered Democrats than Republicans across the four counties combined.
Meanwhile, while fast-growing Douglas County has continued to deliver big Republican majority votes, with Trump winning the county by 18 points in 2018, there are signs that the GOP’s advantage there is not as profound as it once was. In 2004 there were 2.7 times more registered Republicans than Democrats in Dougco; now it’s 1.9 times more.
There’s even talk that a Democrat may have a better-than-usual shot at a seat on the all-Republican Douglas County Board of Commissioners, especially since Republican county Sheriff Tony Spurlock endorsed Democrat Lisa Neal-Graves over Republican George Teal for an open seat. The current commissioners riled many voters when they proposed severing ties with the regional public-health agency after it ordered residents to wear face masks in public.
The suburbs also have seen a sharp increase in voters registering as unaffiliated, as is true across the state, especially since Colorado opened up party-primary voting to unaffiliateds.
Across the four suburban counties, 42% of active registered voters now are unaffiliated, up from 33% in 2004. Even Douglas County now has a few thousand more unaffiliated active voters than Republicans.
How those unattached voters will break this year is anyone’s guess. But in 2018 — the first year that unaffiliated Coloradans could vote in the party primaries, and a year with big-ticket contested races on both major-party ballots — unaffiliated voters in the four counties returned Democratic ballots over Republican by a nearly 2-1 margin.
Asked about the changing suburbs, Republican political consultant Dick Wadhams, a former GOP state chairman, notes the increasing diversity of places like Aurora, Lakewood and Arvada. He also points to the recent influx of hundreds of thousands of new residents, many of them younger voters from big cities. “You can see all these apartment buildings spring up like weeds,” he said.
“But one thing that hasn’t changed is the constant challenge … for Republican candidates to appeal to suburban Republican and unaffiliated women,” Wadhams said. “(They’re) still a huge determiner of who wins a statewide election in Colorado. I think it’s one of the reasons why Trump is doing so poorly in Colorado right now, because that’s the demographic group that’s kind of repulsed by his behavior. … They might like some of the things he’s done as president — tax cuts, deregulation — but ultimately they just don’t want him personally, and I think that’s been a challenge (for Republicans).”
Wadhams points to Republican U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner, facing a challenge in his bid for a second term from Democratic former Gov. John Hickenlooper. Wadhams called Gardner “probably one of the best candidates we’ve ever put up. He’s been a very active, successful senator. And yet he’s just being drowned right now by the anti-Trump feeling. And I’m not saying he’s going to lose, but right now it’s really tough for him.”
‘People are worn out’
Beth Krauss, 67, of Centennial is retired after 25 years in sales in the pharmaceutical and biotech business and has two grown children. She moved to Colorado from Texas with her ex-husband in the 1980s.
When Krauss moved to Colorado, she was an independent voter. She registered as a Democrat in 2006 when Barack Obama began his run for the presidency, and now she calls herself a “rabid Democrat” who plans to vote a straight party ticket.
Her main interest as the election approaches is supporting Biden and Kamala Harris. “In 2006, … I was the only one [in the neighborhood] that put signs out that were Democrat, OK? And now, I’m so excited about all the Biden-Harris signs,” she said. “I think it’s Donald Trump. I think that people are tired of lies and corruption. People are worn out.”
On the issues, she said she’s very concerned about Republican efforts to “politicize” the Supreme Court. She’s been involved with Planned Parenthood “for years, so reproductive freedom is at the top of my list. … I find it very difficult to believe that people that are pro-life are OK with what’s going on in on our borders, separating children from their parents.”
As for the Senate race, “I think Hickenlooper has done a lot historically for Colorado. I like him, but I really dislike Cory Gardner.”
‘A natural-born optimist’
Kaarl Hoopes, 65, of Thornton is a photographer and pilot who owns an aerial imaging business. A longtime Republican activist in Adams County, Hoopes ran unsuccessfully for the state House in 2010 and county commissioner in 2012. He and his wife have two grown children.
Hoopes said that he uniformly backs Republican candidates because they hold to “the founding principles of this country. I believe that the founding fathers were … given wisdom by God, and they decided that the best way [to] run the country is through the free-enterprise system [and] maximum freedom for individuals in their personal and economic lives with smaller government.”
He also talked of “peace through strength” through a strong military and a willingness to stand up to enemies. “President Trump in particular is fearless, and that gives me a great sense of security [and] optimism about the future of our nation under that kind of leadership,” he said.
In addition to backing the president’s re-election, Hoopes sees reelecting Gardner as a top priority to help Republicans maintain control of the U.S. Senate. But “my greatest concern,” he added, is the Democrats’ unfettered control over state government following the party’s 2018 sweep. “In Colorado now we have no backstop, no accountability, no safety net against radical legislation because we’ve lost control of the state Senate. At this point we have one-party rule.”
In Adams County, active-voter Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 1.5-to-1 ratio.
“There’s been a massive shift toward the Democrat party in Adams County,” Hoopes said, noting that in the 2014 election, Republicans won six of eight races for county office. “In 2018, we lost every single seat. And the difference, in my view, is mostly registration. The Democrats have done a much better job of organizing.” He also cites “an influx of more liberal-leaning voters into the state” from places like California.
But he adds: “I’m a natural-born optimist and not one who throws in the towel or gives up the fight. I think there is potential for people to wake up.”
‘Some awesome policies’
Natalia Lynch, 32, is a public-school psychologist who lives with her husband and toddler son in Arvada. Born and raised in Alaska, she moved to Colorado seven years ago.
She said she’s voting Democratic this year, with Hickenlooper at the top of her priority list, saying she’s excited about his support for combating climate change: “He has some awesome policies for moving the state forward as well as the country forward while also creating jobs in green energy.”
Other issues that concern her are education — schools, she said, are “chronically underfunded” — as well as social justice, the economy and health care. As for the presidential race, “that’s been my biggest focus,” she said, and she has signed up to help with Biden phone banking.
“I do want to get more involved in local elections in the future,” she said, “but … right now the biggest hurdle is to get through the presidential election and then we can start focusing on other things.”
Policy over personality
Will Johnson, 36, who works in sales, lives in Highlands Ranch with his wife and three young sons. Originally from Minnesota, he moved to Douglas County 5½ years ago.
In choosing candidates to support, “I generally align with Republican principles, not just ‘if there’s an R by the name I’ll vote for it.’ … But just knowing the candidates and knowing the issues, I plan to vote straight Republican.”
Johnson said he’s “very excited” about Gardner, citing the GOP senator’s record of bipartisanship and his “work to build consensus … on pressing issues.” He also praised what Gardner has “delivered for Coloradans, specifically his leadership on things like the Great American Outdoors Act, … what he’s been doing to get Coloradans the resources they need to better navigate the COVID pandemic, … and helping our economy flourish by bringing jobs to Colorado.”
As for the presidential race, Williams said: “I totally understand why people don’t like aspects of Trump’s personality. I get that; I respect it. But when you look at the policy differences, the stuff that really impacts our lives, there are stark differences between Trump’s [policy emphasis on] limited government, freedom first, be proud of your American principles, … and then on the other side is the ever-expanding-government, freedom-shrinking, fundamentally-transforming-America agenda of the Biden-Harris [ticket].”
‘Complete disgust’
Mike Mendes, 62, is in the home improvement and remodeling business. A father of two grown children, he lives with his girlfriend in unincorporated Arapahoe County near Cherry Creek State Park. Born in Venezuela, with a father in the oil business, he grew up in Libya and the UK before coming to Colorado in 1976 to attend the University of Denver.
Mendes said he was unaffiliated until this year, when he registered as a Democrat out of “complete disgust with Trump and his circus.” He blasted the president’s “appalling” handling of the pandemic response.
Over the last decade or so, he said, he has moved from the “middle of the road” more to the left, especially over the health-care issue. “I grew up in England, which has a national health care system. … It seems to me that ought to be something that the richest country in the world should offer to its citizens.”
This year, “I’m probably just going to check every Democrat off,” Mendes said, adding: “I’ve always been a Hickenlooper fan.”
‘They do crazy stuff’
Peter Boddie, who just turned 66, wears many hats. A consulting hydrologist by profession, he and his wife have also published guidebooks on Colorado trails and written histories of Colorado’s shut-down ski hills. And he writes a political blog, “Pundit Pete,” where he declares: “If you take seriously anything you read here, there might be something seriously wrong with you.”
Boddie has long been a registered Republican, he said, but while he used to “mix it up” when he voted, now he tends to vote a straight GOP ticket.
“I just discovered over the years that my core principles align with the Republicans,” he said. “The Democrats have just gone so far left and off the rails. … They do crazy stuff and they don’t listen to voters.”
He’s unhappy that after voters in 2018 rejected a ballot proposal to restrict new oil and gas development, the Democrat-led state government “went ahead and did exactly the same thing, against the wishes of the voters.”
With Democrats, he said, “our freedoms are on the line, our economy is on the line. … They always want bigger government, and I want less government. … There’s no way I’m going to vote for Hickenlooper. … The Senate, the Supreme Court, everything’s on the line.”
As for Donald Trump, Boddie said he’s more focused on local issues and races, “but I do like Trump. I was against him in the [2016] primary, … but I’ve grown to like him.”
‘An absolute necessity’
Dani Newsum, 64, of Centennial, formerly a radio talk-show host and television commentator, now works on regional outreach for Cobalt, formerly NARAL Pro-Choice Colorado, which advocates for abortion access and reproductive rights in the state.
Newsum — who holds a master’s in U.S. history from the University of Colorado Denver and a juris doctor from the University of Denver — said she’s voted a straight Democratic ticket for decades because of changes in the Republican Party; she noted that a higher percentage of Republicans in Congress than Democrats voted for the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and that GOP Gov. John Love in 1967 signed into law a measure loosening restrictions on abortion.
“It’s not the same Republican Party where you had, let’s say, Barry Goldwater coming to President Nixon saying, ‘Hey, they’re going to impeach you, and there are the votes to find you guilty. You gotta go,'” she said. “The Republican Party has become a party without principle and the only guiding light is power.”
A win for the Biden-Harris ticket, she said, is “an absolute necessity to save this country, to save this democracy. I have been shocked and appalled at how Donald Trump has been able to lay asunder so much of what I took for granted. … And he could not have done that without the assist of the Republican-controlled Senate, so electing John Hickenlooper to replace Cory Gardner is just integral.”
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