Colorado is at a “critical” coronavirus juncture, with hospitalizations surging and state officials urging residents to “remain vigilant” ahead of a predicted fourth, holiday-induced wave of the virus.

Although the state’s trend in diagnoses has plateaued over the past several days, its growth in hospitalizations — a rise of 140% over two weeks ago — “cannot continue,” Gov. Jared Polis said during a virtual press conference, calling the dramatic uptick in hospitalizations “alarming.”

“We’ve got to do better to avoid overwhelming our hospitals,” he cautioned and urged residents to “double down” on preventative basics such as social-distancing, hand-washing and mask-wearing.

While the current number of COVID-related hospitalizations — nearly 250 — does not challenge state hospital capacity, if the rate of increase continues “for another two weeks, and another two weeks, we would be back in a situation where the best quality of care” for those requiring hospitalization would be in jeopardy, he said.

Current hospitalizations exceed state health officials’ projection of nearly 225 by Oct. 12, state epidemiologist Rachel Herlihy said.

New models shown by Herlihy project a fourth wave of disease — the result of holiday gatherings — that could peak in early to mid-December and subside in February or March, if social distancing rates are around 50-55%. Social-distancing rates of 60%, however, could make a substantial difference, resulting in a flatter curve with a less dramatic, later peak in late February or March that begins to subside in May, she said.

The peak of new daily cases, under those models, could hit 40,000 if social distancing drops as low as 30% around the holidays. However, a peak of only 10,000 new daily cases could be seen during the same period if an estimated 60% of the state maintains social-distancing, said Herlihy, adding that the state is currently at an estimated social-distancing rate of 50-60%.

Last week the state experienced a nearly 15% decrease in reported cases week over week — the first such decrease since mid-August, Herlihy said.

But that decrease was fueled almost exclusively by the work on Colorado’s college campuses to flatten the curve among 18-to-25-year-olds, whose cases have surged in recent weeks.

After colleges including the University of Colorado at Boulder took steps to stop student gatherings, that age group experienced a 45% decrease in disease transmission week over week, state figures show. When that age group is removed from the data, however, the rest of Colorado saw a 1% increase in disease transmission compared with the previous week, Herlihy said.

The state must get back “down to the valley that puts us in a much better place moving into Thanksgiving and the winter holidays,” Herlihy said.

“We did this before, and we can do it again,” Polis said about the state’s increased rates of social-distancing and mask-wearing after officials urged for better compliance in previous waves of the virus. “We need to live more like we did in late July, early August. We need to move forward together to set ourselves up for a successful holiday season.”

As of last week, the rate of spread of the virus in the state was 1.25 people infected for every positive case, Herlihy said. 

Polis called that number “not sustainable.”

“You can be at 1.25 for a few weeks, but you cannot be at that number for months at a time or you overwhelm hospitals,” he said.

The governor also criticized President Donald Trump, now back at the White House as he recovers from COVID-19 after a brief stint at Walter Reed Military Medical Center, for his response to the virus.

Trump gives “divisive direction” and attempted to “bully” school districts into re-opening without offering federal assistance, Polis said.

“When he says don’t be afraid [of the virus], for me, I say very similar things — that it’s not a time for fear … but it doesn’t mean you throw off your mask, have large groups, get people sick and die. It means it’s a time for caution,” Polis said, referring to an Oct. 5 tweet from a hospitalized Trump that urged Americans, “don’t be afraid” of the sometimes deadly virus and “don’t let it dominate your life.”

Trump’s words, based on his actions, could “easily be interpreted as ‘it’s not a time for fear, it’s a time for recklessness,’ which he models in his personal behavior,” Polis said.

In other virus news:

• More than 74,109 Coloradans have been diagnosed with the virus to date, Polis said.

• More than 2,000 of them have “paid the ultimate price” of COVID-19, he added, though it was unclear if he was referring to deaths from the virus, which hit 1,968 as of Monday, or deaths among cases of the virus, which was at 2,069 as of Monday.

Gazette reporter Leslie James contributed to this report.