Colorado’s seven-day average of coronavirus cases hit an all-time high Sunday, besting the previous peak in late April, by more than 50 cases.

The state’s average hit nearly 600 cases Sunday, up from 461 the week before. The average is now more than double what it was on June 7, when it began its most recent ascent.

“It definitely continues to be a worrisome sign,” said Dr. Glen Mays, professor and chair of the Department of Health Systems, Management and Policy at the Colorado School of Public Health. “It’s a clear indication that we’re seeing increased community transmission of the virus,” which has been “accelerating over recent weeks.”

“Our disease control strategies are not working as effectively as we’d like them to” and are not working as effectively “as the strategies we were using back in March and April,” he said. Coloradans from mid-March and April were under “stay at home” orders but many restrictions have been loosened in the past couple months.

If such a rise continues, “we will likely need to consider stronger policy changes or rolling back some of the reopening,” Mays added.

El Paso County is one of 15 in the state with a rate of 100 or more new diagnoses of the virus per 100,000 people per two-week period, Gov. Jared Polis announced at a Tuesday news conference from the Governor’s Residence in Denver.

Those counties with “red” designation – which also includes Teller, Douglas, Custer, Eagle and Weld – require swift action to avoid a greater regional or statewide outbreak of the virus, Polis said, adding that the status jeopardizes their variances if they’re unable to lower local transmission rates within two weeks.

Such counties have “an increasing and dangerous infection rate that is unsustainable,” he said.

El Paso County on Monday hit an all-time high for the number of new cases in a single day, slightly above the previous high set earlier this month.

The two-day average of new coronavirus diagnoses in the state is 461, Polis said, attributing the lack of precise daily totals for each day to a server error.

The rate of positive tests is just under 5%, the benchmark at which “alarm bells” begin ringing, he said.

Current hospitalizations in the state are at 251, leaving Colorado with “plenty of capacity” to accommodate additional cases. 

A rise in infections is expected as restrictions loosen, Polis said, adding that state officials are keeping an eye on hospital capacity. While those with the virus may or may not get tested, “you can’t disguise hospitalizations,” he said. “When people get sick enough, they need a bed, they’re in the hospital.”

A doubling of Colorado’s hospitalization rate wouldn’t pose a problem, the governor said. But if the rate continued to double, the state would eventually hit a rate at which elective surgeries would need to be paused as they were earlier this spring, he warned.

Mays echoed Polis’ comments, saying state officials keep an especially close eye on hospitalization rates.

Hospitalization rates, while trending upward, are currently doing so “at a relatively low rate,” Mays said. “They’re not trending upward as fast as the overall case volume.”

The slow climb is likely due to the age of the average Colorado coronavirus patient becoming younger – from the 51 in March to 37 as of July 19, according to state officials – and younger patients tending to fare better, he said.

But if the spread of the virus can’t be brought under control or slowed in five or six weeks, hospital capacity could be threatened, and “we absolutely could be” looking at state policy changes such as a resumption of the “stay at home” order, Polis said.

He exhorted state residents that “if we live like we did in May instead of like we did in July, we will be fine.”

“We can live like that again. We must live like that again. Everything was open, but we need that level of precaution,” Polis said. “Colorado is doing better than most [states], but not well enough to rest on our laurels.”