Businesses doubt US, China on way to deal
WASHINGTON ? American companies cheered when the U.S. and China called a cease-fire in their trade war this month, but as both sides work toward drafting an initial deal some worry that a more meaningful, long-term pact may never be reached.
Negotiators from both sides are working toward a “phase one” agreement that would halt additional U.S. tariffs in exchange for big Chinese purchases of American farm goods, new rules on currency manipulation and efforts by China to finish opening its financial sector to foreign firms.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke by phone Friday with China’s Vice Premier Liu He, and afterward put out a statement saying they “made headway on specific issues and the two sides are close to finalizing some sections of the agreement,” helping lift financial markets.
Beyond the phase one agreement, however, U.S. business groups are concerned other issues aimed at leveling the playing field for U.S. businesses will be pushed down the road and languish. U.S. executives regularly complain that they are pressured to share or give away crucial technology in exchange for access to China’s market and face restrictions on how they can use data that hurt their ability to compete there.
“There is a risk that once something is announced on phase one, it is very unclear what will happen beyond that and whether there would just be continuing talks and no results,” said Christine Bliss, president of the Coalition of Services Industries, an umbrella group that includes everything from financial firms to express delivery.
Those concerns are echoed by other business groups and companies that believe U.S. companies increasingly face high hurdles in the China market.
The preliminary phase one agreement “does not address many of the fundamental issues that have led to heightened tensions” between the U.S. and China, said Libby Cantrill, head of public policy at bond manager Pacific Investment Management Co.
“It would not be surprising if the romance is short-lived and Trump returns to not only more adversarial rhetoric but also more combative actions,” Cantrill said.
The White House is hoping to have a deal ready by mid-November, when it could potentially be signed by President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile.
Phase one may include some measures to protect American intellectual property, along with confirmation that China will follow through with earlier plans to open its financial services, officials and business groups say.
Yet the thorniest issues faced by American financial firms and other companies – the forced transfer of technology, limits on the movement of data and subsidies enjoyed by Chinese competitors – aren’t set to be addressed in the first step, these people say.
What is more, continuing economic and security disagreements with China, including over Beijing’s handling of protests in Hong Kong, are complicating the ability of the two countries to make concessions that would help clear up the trade conflict.
China hasn’t signaled much interest in making the structural changes sought by the U.S., according to people following the talks.
Quite the reverse. Since May, when Trump halted negotiations as both sides were believed to be near a deal, Western business groups note a half-dozen steps Beijing has taken to limit foreign participation in information technology, telecommunications and the free flow of data.
Those steps could make it difficult for financial firms, for example, to thrive in China even if they are allowed to establish fully owned subsidiaries there.
In addition, China is rolling out a system for “corporate social credit” that could be used to blacklist foreign companies even if an industry is technically open to foreign investments. Under the system, an algorithm would determine to what degree companies are complying with the country’s various laws and regulations.
China has also threatened to put U.S. firms on an “unreliable entities list,” a blacklist of foreign entities that harm Chinese businesses, after the Trump administration blacklisted telecom giant Huawei.
Trump, meanwhile, has complained about the trade deficit and touted plans for Chinese firms to buy more U.S. exports. American farmers, a politically powerful group that is suffering from retaliation against U.S. tariffs, would benefit from the phase one framework, which would involve purchases of up to $50 billion a year, Trump said.
“The promise of additional ag purchases is welcome news but details on timeline, price, commodities and many other questions will have to be answered,” said Farmers for Free Trade, a group that seeks to eliminate tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports.


