On Monday the most anticipated revenue forecast of the year will be presented to the Joint Budget Committee (JBC) and other lawmakers – one that could determine just how much of a surplus is available for Colorado’s 2018-19 budget and beyond.

The March 19 revenue forecast is among the final steps before the JBC releases its proposal for the next budget, which is due to start in the House on March 26.

In December, economists produced a pre-Christmas surprise for lawmakers: news that the state would have a surplus, with estimates as high as $1 billion for 2018-19.

Lawmakers and Gov. John Hickenlooper both reacted with suggestions to boost transportation spending, with the governor pledging $148.2 million toward the state’s $9 billion, 10-year wish list for road and bridge projects. Republicans in the state Senate are seeking $300 million per year for the next 20 years, which could allow the state, with voter approval, to bond for around $3.5 billion in transportation needs.

Their proposal, contained in Senate Bill 1, is stalled on the Senate floor and headed for a third day of debate, as Democrats have mounted a filibuster in hopes of amending the bill to address issues such as rural projects and multi-modal ideas. And at least a few members of the Democratic caucus are using the debate as a way to draw attention to their demand that Senate President Kevin Grantham of Cañon City allow a resolution they’re sponsoring to go forward. That resolution calls for the expulsion of the prime sponsor of Senate Bill 1, Sen. Randy Baumgardner of Hot Sulphur Springs, who’s alleged to have slapped the buttocks of a legislative aide in 2016. Baumgardner has denied the allegation, but voluntarily resigned as chair of the Senate Transportation Committee.

The revenue forecast is also expected to give lawmakers their first hard look at the how the federal Tax Cuts and Job Plan will affect Colorado revenues. The federal legislation was signed by President Trump on December 22, two days after the state revenue forecasts were presented. Henry Sobanet, director of the governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting, told lawmakers in December he believed forecasts might have to be downgraded in the wake of the tax law. “It will take every minute in the next three months to figure out the implications of the federal tax law,” Sobanet said in December.

Legislative Council economists indicated in December the state could see higher revenue due to higher taxes paid by Coloradans as a result of the tax law, with an early beginning estimate at around $200 million.

One area of worry for lawmakers is just how much severance tax revenue will be available. In December, economists noted that severance taxes, which had been expected at around $150 million for 2017-18 instead was less than a third of that, around $42.5 million. The downturn is the result of lower oil and gas prices and less activity in the energy sector. The state also lost a lawsuit in the Colorado Supreme Court in 2016 that required the state to pay the companies millions of dollars for “cost of capital” income tax deductions.

That downturn dramatically impacts programs that rely on those dollars, particularly in the Department of Local Affairs and the Department of Natural Resources, which uses those dollars for water projects.

The revenue forecasts will be presented at 1:30 p.m. Monday.