A recent study of the impact on the potential U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) reported Colorado could lose $2.1 billion in business and tens of thousands of jobs. An analysis last November from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce found similar economic impacts.

The economic analysis came from the Business Roundtable, a Washington, D.C. -based group that includes chief executive officers of 23 of the nation’s top companies. The roundtable’s board is led by JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and includes members who represent three companies with Colorado ties: Stryker, Ball Corporation and Lockheed Martin.

The analysis included a state-by-state look at the impacts of NAFTA withdrawal, a promise made by then-candidate Donald Trump on the campaign trail. Among his complaints, Trump called NAFTA “the worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere, but certainly ever signed in this country” during a September, 2016 debate with his Democratic opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

But once elected President, Trump backed away from his threats to withdraw the United States from the three-nation deal, stating last April that he would bring NAFTA up-to-date through renegotiation. “I believe that the end result will make all three countries stronger and better.” Even his agriculture secretary, former Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue, has advised Trump not to withdraw the United States from the 25-year old agreement.

The three NAFTA countries – the United States, Mexico and Canada – have since engaged in several talks, including this week in Montreal.

The Business Roundtable contracted the economic analysis with Trade Partnership Worldwide, which reported that the United States would lose 1.8 million jobs if NAFTA were to be terminated.

Colorado’s share of that, the analysis estimated, would be more than 34,000 jobs.

The impact to Colorado’s agricultural sector would be even worse. The analysis estimated a $2.1 billion negative direct and indirect economic impact with a direct export loss at $920 million. Of that, $510 million in exports to Canada are at jeopardy, and $410 million in exports to Mexico are threatened.

The state’s most vulnerable product to a NAFTA withdrawal would be Colorado beef, currently the state’s number one agricultural product. A NAFA withdrawal would result in a loss of $81 million for Colorado beef producers. Total export losses for all meat products would top $292 million, according to the analysis.

Colorado’s dairy sector would lose about $42 million and grain exporters would lose $31 million.

Travel services also would lose under an end to NAFTA, the analysis said, at $107 million.

“Mexico and Canada are Colorado’s largest international trading partners,” said Gov. John Hickenlooper in a statement to Colorado Politics. “That trade has a significant impact in agriculture and industries across Colorado. It’s critical that we maintain and grow our business relationship while also maintaining the strongest enforcement mechanisms to ensure an equal playing field.”

Nationwide, a termination of NAFTA would diminish U.S. purchasing power by almost $654 per household due to higher prices and lower wages caused by increased tariffs. It would also shift economic activity toward competitors such as China, which the analysis said would gain 2 million jobs.

Joshua Bolten, president and CEO of the roundtable, said in a statement that “Terminating NAFTA would permanently reduce U.S. employment, exports, and economic output, while benefiting our economic competitors at the expense of American workers and businesses. We urge the Administration to take into account the potential damage of withdrawing from NAFTA, and to focus instead on modernizing the agreement so that it remains a cornerstone of American prosperity.”