Unless there’s a final, major GOP rush to the ballot box, both ballot return numbers and fundraising indicate the three incumbents running for the Jefferson County school board are likely to be re-elected next Tuesday. And in the Denver Public Schools, fundraising by the 10 candidates has exceeded $641,000, with spending just shy of a half-million dollars.

Jefferson CountyThe latest campaign finance numbers for the three incumbents – Susan Harmon, Ron Mitchell and Brad Rupert -0 show each has now raised at least $50,000 in a race that didn’t draw enough challengers for all three seats. All numbers are obtained from TRACER, the Secretary of State’s campaign finance database, and include all fundraising and expenditures through Oct.  29.

Harmon leads the three in fundraising, with $53,400 raised. She’s also received more than $4,000 in in-kind donations, such as postage, copying and her largest in-kind, $4,000 for research, paid for by the Colorado Education Association.

Harmon raised another $7,775 in the Oct. 13 to Oct. 29 reporting period. Her largest donation to date is $4,000 in early October from the Jefferson County teacher’s union small donor committee, which gets its funds from its members. Small donor committees can accept no more than $50 per person per election cycle. Harmon has spent just over $44,000.

Harmon’s opponent, Erica Shields, has so far raised $4,353, total. She took in $1,075 in the most recent reporting period. Shields’ largest contribution to date of $830 is out of her own pocket. She has spent $2,555.

In the other contested race, between incumbent Brad Rupert and challenger Matt Van Gieson, Rupert leads with more than $53,000 raised along with more than $4,000 in in-kind contributions. Like Harmon, his largest in-kind was research paid for by the state teachers’ union. His largest cash contribution of $16,500 came from the state teachers’ union; he also got a $4,000 donation from the Jeffco teachers’ union. Unlike candidates for statewide office, like governor or legislature, there is no limit on how much cash a school board candidate can accept.

Similar to Shields, Van Gieson shows weak fundraising in his challenge to Rupert; he has so far raised just over $3,000, including $763 in the past two weeks. He has spent just over $2,100 for the entire campaign period.

Mitchell has no opponent, but he that hasn’t stopped him from raising almost $52,000 and another $5,100 in in-kind donations, with a $4,000 in-kind contribution from the state teachers’ union for research. His largest cash contribution, $16,500, also came from the state teachers’ union.

All three have also gotten contributions from Democratic U.S. Reps. Jared Polis of Boulder and Ed Perlmutter of Arvada.

While outside groups have spent more than $2 million to influence school board races in the metro Denver area, Jeffco is the one place where that’s not been a factor, a marked difference from the heated battle two years ago, when three conservative board members were overwhelmingly recalled by voters and replaced by the three running for re-election this year.

As of November 3, and according to the Secretary of State’s office, Democrats lead in returning ballots, with 36 percent of the total ballots received; unaffiliated voters have returned 28 percent of the total ballots, and Republicans have sent in 35 percent of the ballots.

Total spending by the five candidates to date in Jeffco: $138,000. That’s only slightly less than the total spent by the eight candidates in Douglas County.

Douglas CountyHouston oilman Alex Cranberg, who has put $120,000 into supporting conservative education reformers in Douglas County in 2009 and 2013, sat out during the 2015 race, when three anti-voucher candidates won seats on the seven-member board.

He isn’t sitting out in 2017. The most recent campaign finance reports for the four candidates on the Elevate Douglas County slate show Cranberg gave each $5,000 in the most recent reporting period.

Cranberg, formerly of Denver, has sat on the board of the Alliance for School Choice, the nation’s largest organization for vouchers. Its chair from 2009 to 2016 was now-Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos.

The Douglas County school board has four seats open, all held by conservative education reformers who back the voucher program. What’s at stake is the future of the Choice voucher program, which would give at least $5,000 to as many as 500 Douglas County students to attend the private and/or religious school of their choice, including schools not in Douglas County. The voucher program is on hold, pending a review by the Colorado Supreme Court, which was directed by the U.S. Supreme Court to reconsider its previous decision that declared the vouchers unconstitutional.

The pro-voucher slate must win all four seats to hold onto the voucher program; just one win by a candidate on the anti-voucher side would likely mean the board would eliminate the program and that would render the court fight moot.

The pro-voucher Elevate slate has taken a strong lead in its fundraising over the anti-voucher CommUNITY slate, according to the most recent campaign finance reports.

Leading among all candidates in Douglas County for fundraising is Elevate’s Grant Nelson, who has now raised more than $44,000 and another $820 from in-kind donations. His opponent, CommUNITY’s Kevin Leung, has raised  just under $17,000 in cash, loans of $4,000 and $16,000 in in-kind contributions. Nelson has so far spent $22,000; Leung has spent $16,575.

Elevate’s Randy Mills brought in the most cash in the most recent reporting period, more than $15,000. That brings his total to almost $37,000 and another $800 in in-kind donations. His opponent, CommUNITY’s Christina Ciancio-Schor, has raised almost $20,000 and taken in $11,000 in in-kind contributions. She received $4,700 in contributions between Oct. 13 and Oct. 29. Mills has spent almost $22,000 to date; Schor has spent just under $17,000.

Former state Board of Education member Debora Scheffel, also running on the Elevate slate, took in almost $14,000 between Oct. 13 and Oct. 29. That takes her total to $35,700 in cash contributions along with $800 in in-kind donations. Her opponent, CommUNITY’s Krista Holtzmann, brought in just over $2,000, bringing her total to $22,700 along with $12,000 in in-kind donations. Scheffel has so far spent $22,000; Holtzmann has spent $19,500.

Finally, Ryan Abresch of Elevate is now at $29,800 in cash and another $800 in in-kinds, with a recent infusion of $8,500 in cash in the most recent reporting period. His opponent, Anthony Graziano, took in $6,200 in the last two weeks, with a total now of $20,000 in cash and another $12,000 in in-kind donations. Abresch has spent $22,000, with Graziano at $16,400.

Cranberg is not the only big donor to the Elevate slate: Ed McVaney, the founder of software giant JD Edwards, also gave $5,000 to each of the Elevate candidates. McVaney is a co-founder, along with Cranberg, of the Alliance for Choice in Education, which awards scholarships to low-income children so they can attend private schools. McVaney also has put big dollars into Douglas County school board races in the past to back conservative reformers; he gave $10,000 each to three candidates in 2011.

Total spending by the candidates: $157,400 as of Oct. 29. That’s only slightly more than the amount spent in just one of the races for the seats on the Denver Public Schools Board of Education.

DPSThe most expensive school board races this year are for the four seats on the DPS board, with a total raised as of Oct. 29 of $641,000. The seven-member board is pro-charter, and based on fundraising by the candidates, and with close to $1 million spent by outside pro-charter groups to keep it that way, the board majority is not likely to change after next Tuesday.

For former Lt. Gov. Barbara O’Brien, an incumbent in the at-large seat, it’s a runaway in terms of the dollars raised. O’Brien has now taken in $116,000 to retain her seat, including almost $15,000 in the Oct. 13-29 period. She has spent just over $84,000 so far.

O’Brien has two opponents. Robert Speth has so far raised almost $29,000 in cash, another $18,000 in loans and about $3,600 in non-monetary in-kind donations. He’s spent $31,600. The other candidate, Julie Banuelos, has raised $12,500, with $7,300 in loans. She’s spent $15,600 to date. Total spending by the three candidates is now over $150,000.

District 2, southwest Denver, is the only open seat on the board, but the pro-charter candidate, Angela Cobian, has a substantial lead in fundraising, with $97,800 raised through Oct. 29, along with $4,700 in non-monetary donations. That doesn’t include a $10,000 donation Cobian took in on November 1 from Arthur Rock, a Silicon-Valley donor to Education Reform Now, the pro-charter New York-based nonprofit. Education Reform Now has contributed $625,000 to an independent expenditure committee, Raising Colorado, that backs the pro-charter candidates in the DPS races. Rock had already given Cobian $10,000 in September. Cobian has so far spent $78,000.

Cobian’s opponent, “Sochi” Gaytan, has raised just under $30,000 and spent just over $20,000.

Mike Johnson, the DPS incumbent in district 3, which covers Park Hill south to George Washington High School, also broke the $100,000 mark with his most recent fundraising report. He also has taken in $4,000 in loans and spent $83,400. His largest donation to date, $10,000, came on Oct. 27 from Republican and University of Colorado President Bruce Benson.

Carrie Olson, who is backed by the Denver Classroom Teachers Association (DCTA), has so far raised just under $32,000 and spent $29,500.  She has received $8,500 from the teachers’ union.

The last seat, in district 4, covers northeast Denver, including Stapleton and Montbello. The fundraising leader in the three-way race is incumbent Rachel Espiritu, who has taken $93,000 and spent $66,300. She brought in more than $19,000 in the Oct. 13 to Oct. 29 period. Her most recent report shows a $10,000 contribution from Benson.

Opponent Jennifer Bacon has raised $65,000, and is backed with contributions from both the DCTA and from pro-charter Arthur Rock. The DCTA has so far given Bacon $10,000; Rock gave her $5,000. She has spent $44,800 to date.

Tay Anderson, a recent DPS graduate, has taken in $18,300 and spent $12,300.

Total spending by the ten candidates for the four seats: $490,000 as of Oct. 29.