A year from now, Colorado’s 2026 general election ballot will be set, and the primary winners will be embarking on their four-month sprint to November.

More than that, it’d be foolhardy to say.

As a saying attributed to Yogi Beara goes, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

It’s become customary at this juncture — halfway through the off-year, a year out from the state primary’s conclusion — for this column to take a stab at a caveat-laden sketch of what lies ahead, though less confidently with each passing election cycle.

This time, the caveats should probably outweigh the bold lines.

The way things look now, the shape, if not the particulars, of next year’s contests appears to be set, but recent history suggests it would be imprudent to place any bets on the outcomes, no matter how good the odds.

That’s because, as constant as political winds tend to blow, there have been few stretches in the country’s recent political history as unpredictable as the last year. And only six months into the second Trump administration, the daily stream of curveballs and surprises shows no sign of letting up.

A year ago, Democrats were circling the wagon around Joe Biden after the president’s shaky — many said disastrous — performance in his first debate with Donald Trump. Few outside Venezuelan prisons had heard of the now-notorious Tren de Aragua gang, and Aurora was known nationally, if it was known at all, as Colorado’s third-largest city and one of the safest mid-sized suburbs in the country.

The Trump campaign was busy dismissing the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 report as cockamamie fan fiction with no ties to the GOP’s plans. JD Vance, the new Ohio senator with a literary flair and a bipartisan bent, had a reputation as a “never Trumper,” having referred to Trump as “cultural heroin” and warned that the former president could be “America’s Hitler.”

There’s more — Elon Musk, long hailed as a visionary entrepreneur by fans of clean energy, had yet to take a deep dive into national politics, and the U.S. Agency for International Development was perhaps better known outside the country’s borders, by the millions around the world who benefited from its assistance — but suffice it to say, a lot can change in 12 months.

Here’s what we know for certain.

Next year, Colorado voters are set to elect a new governor and replace every one of the state’s four other constitutional officers — lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state and state treasurer — since the Democrats who occupy each of those positions are all term-limited.

The state’s junior U.S. senator, Democrat John Hickenlooper, and all eight members of Colorado’s U.S. House delegation — four Democrats and four Republicans — are on the ballot, and so far, they’re all running for reelection.

According to election forecasters — and early indications of national party spending — one of those congressional seats stands to be among the most competitive in the country next year, as it has been for the two elections since its creation, while one or two of the others could slip into that category if the political climate takes a swing.

Gov. Jared Polis and Lt. Gov. Dianne Primavera aren’t running for anything else at this point, but the Democrats who fill the other statewide offices all are.

Attorney General Phil Weiser is facing a primary for governor against three-term U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, while Secretary of State Jena Griswold is one of four prominent Democrats running for Weiser’s job, along with Boulder District Attorney Michael Dougherty, former state House Speaker Crisanta Duran, workers rights attorney David Selligman and former top federal prosecutor Hetal Doshi.

State Treasurer Dave Young is running in a crowded Democratic primary for what’s expected to be the state’s battleground congressional district, leaving a packed primary for his current seat, including state Sen. Jeff Bridges, state Rep. Brianna Titone, Jefferson County Treasurer Jerry DiTullio and former El Paso County Democratic Party Chair John Mikos, a retired Army colonel.

Jefferson County Clerk and Recorder Amanda Gonzalez is so far the only Democrat running for secretary of state, an office that has had a significantly higher profile in recent years than it did in previous decades.

Republicans have packed their party’s primary for governor — at last count, more than a dozen candidates have filed to run for the state’s top job — but experienced GOP candidates have been slow to enter the other statewide races. While Hickenloper has yet to draw a Republican challenger in the Senate race, the most prominent entrants in the Republican gubernatorial at this point are state Sen. Mark Baisley, state Rep. Scott Bottoms, Teller County Sheriff Jason Mikesell and former congressional candidate Joshua Griffin.

Freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans will be defending the closely divided 8th Congressional District, a swingy seat stretching from Adams County suburbs north of Denver to Greeley, though Democrats are a long way from deciding who will get the chance to challenge him. At last county, five major Democratic candidates are in the mix. Among them are former U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who lost her bid for a second term to Evans last year in a race that came down to the wire; state Reps. Manny Rutinel and Shannon Bird; Amie Baca-Oehlert, a former president of the Colorado Education Association; and Young.

The Democratic primary is also heating up in the Eastern Plains-based 4th Congressional District, the state’s most solidly Republican seat. That’s where three-term U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert is seeking reelection after moving into the district last year from the Western Slope’s 3rd Congressional District, where she served two terms but only after barely winning in 2022. Democrats vying for the chance to run against the odds are Trisha Calvarese, who lost to Boebert last year; John Padora, who lost the 2024 primary to Calvarese; and former Rear Admiral Eileen Laubacher, a first-time candidate.

While the fields in Colorado’s top races appear to be set, it’s still early. Most of the major non-incumbent candidates in the same races hadn’t even emerged at this point in 2024 and 2022, and if there’s one thing the past few years have demonstrated, it’s a safe plan to expect the unexpected.

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