Without Lauren Boebert to run against, Democrat Adam Frisch’s chances of flipping Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District just aren’t what they used to be.

That’s according to the election forecasters at Cook Political Report, who shifted the Western Slope-based seat from “lean Republican” to “likely Republican” Friday in a House Race Ratings update that otherwise mostly favored Democrats.

Frisch, a former Aspen City Council member, came within 546 votes of denying the Republican Boebert a second term in the 2022 midterm election — and parlayed that close finish into powerhouse fundraising on the way to a rematch, out-raising the incumbent by millions of dollars last year.

But Boebert thwarted those plans earlier this year by moving across the state to the open, solidly Republican 4th Congressional District, where she won a crowded primary and is favored in November.

That left Frisch with a boatload of campaign cash and a less divisive Republican opponent — first-time candidate Jeff Hurd, a Grand Junction attorney, who rolled up endorsements from nearly every prominent former elected Republican in Colorado on his way to the nomination.

According to Cook’s Erin Covey, Frisch’s massive fundraising advantage probably won’t be enough to stave off the largely rural district’s voters’ habit of voting for Republicans in a presidential year, with former President Donald Trump expected to carry the district by a comfortable margin.

Without Boebert’s “polarizing MAGA figure” on the ballot, Covey said, the more mainstream Hurd — characterized as a “Chamber of Commerce Republican who focused his campaign on energy policy” — won’t give Frisch the same foil, leaving voters with a more generically partisan choice.

“Trump is poised to win this district by several points, and Democratic strategists acknowledge that Frisch’s financial advantage probably won’t be enough to defeat Hurd,” Covey said.

Frisch’s campaign waved off the ratings change as irrelevant to a race where the Democrat has spent more than two years eschewing party labels and declaring his independence, including in a $2.5 million TV ad campaign Frisch launched last month.

“This campaign is about the voters of CD3 who are sick and tired of partisan politics, and who will reject Jeff Hurd because he is an out-of-touch corporate lawyer who has spent his career representing wealthy special interests and profiting off raising prices at the expense of working Colorado families,” Frisch campaign spokesman Andy Bixler told Colorado Politics.

Hurd’s campaign welcomed Cook’s revised rating while acknowledging that nothing is in the bag.

“This change is finally catching up to the reality on the ground in the district, voters are excited to get to the polls and vote for Jeff,” a Hurd campaign spokesman said in a statement.

“We don’t take anything for granted and will be fighting to earn every vote come the election. Western and southern Coloradans know Jeff will fight to secure the border, unleash Western Colorado energy production, and fight back against the Dems’ failed economic policies.”

The shift is in line with other election prognosticators, who have also nudged Colorado’s 3rd CD toward safer Republican territory in recent months, making similar arguments.

Cook’s other race updates, however, predict better results for Democratic House candidates elsewhere in the country.

“Two months out from Election Day, Democrats’ prospects for taking control of the House are looking considerably brighter than they did two months ago,” Covey said. “Democratic candidates are no longer burdened by an unpopular incumbent president, free to run in a political environment where Republicans no longer have a clear enthusiasm advantage, and continue to fill their campaign coffers as Republicans’ fundraising lags.”

While Democrats need to net just four seats in November to win the House majority, Covey noted that the race “remains incredibly close,” concentrated in just two dozen true toss-up seats. Among those battlegrounds: Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo is facing a challenge from state Rep. Gabe Evans.

Mail ballots start going out to mosts Colorado voters in just five weeks, on Oct. 11, and are due back to county clerks by 7 p.m. Nov. 5.