Colorado has eight seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in Washington, D.C. Colorado Springs and its suburbs have been in Colorado’s 5th Congressional District ever since it was created by the state legislature in the early 1970s.

The 5th Congressional District used to include about 10 counties, stretching out to Salida, Leadville, Golden and Elizabeth. Now it is only Colorado Springs and most, yet not quite all, of El Paso County. A sliver of the county’s eastern edge was allocated to the 4th Congressional District to make the number of voters in each congressional district an almost even number as required by law.

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When the 5th Congressional District was first created, state legislators expected it to be a safe-seat Republican district, and it has been. In fact, the 5th District is the only congressional district in Colorado never to have elected a Democrat.

Could this be the year for a Democrat to win the 5th Congressional District? It is a possibility yet not probable.

Veteran incumbent Doug Lamborn, a Republican, is retiring after serving 18 years since first being elected in 2006.

The district is changing, but not dramatically. More people are registering to vote as unaffiliated rather than registering Democratic or Republican. As of recently, about 50% of the district’s registered voters are unaffiliated and only about one-third are registered Republican. Only 17% to 18% are registered as Democrats.

El Paso County has witnessed a surge in population. The county has about 750,000 people with a medium household income of close to $85,000 per year. It is about 65% white, 18% Hispanic, 6% Black, 3% Asian and about 6% of two mixed races.

The county votes less strongly for Republicans than in the past. Thus, Republican George W. Bush won 66% of the vote in El Paso County in the 2004 presidential election while Republican Donald Trump won just 55% running for president 16 years later in 2020.

The Republican candidate for governor in 2022, a relative unknown (Heidi Ganahl), won only 50% in El Paso County while losing statewide. The victorious Democratic candidate for governor that year, wealthy incumbent Jared Polis, won a remarkable, for a Democrat, 47% of El Paso County.

Colorado Springs in 2023 elected its first non-Republican mayor, although it was in a nonpartisan election. That was a major surprise, due in part to two veteran conservative Republicans who ran heated campaigns against each other. That allowed an underdog unaffiliated newcomer, who ran an excellent campaign, to emerge as the centrist victor.

In addition to the beauty of Pikes Peak and the Rocky Mountains, the 5th District’s main characteristic is its several military installations and aerospace corporations. Defense spending influences this congressional district more than just about any other in the nation. Also, El Paso County is reportedly among the top two or three counties in the United States where veterans or active-duty military personnel live and vote.

The ideal candidate for the 5th Congressional District in Colorado would be a white unaffiliated military veteran. But our electoral system, for a variety of reasons, pretty much forces us to elect either a Republican or a Democrat.

Two Republicans, both of whom have run against incumbent Doug Lamborn in previous Republican primaries, are contesting in a robust showdown for the Republican nomination in the 5th Congressional District. Big money is being spent on behalf of both candidates.

Veteran Republican operative and local podcaster Jeff Crank almost defeated Doug Lamborn for the nomination in 2008. He was a senior aide to former U.S. 5th District Representative Joel Hefley and later the state director for the Koch Brothers conservative Americans for Prosperity Fund. Crank has also been a radio host.

Crank’s views are conservative. He is anti-abortion, pro-defense, pro- Israel, pro-Ukraine, anti-regulation and for eliminating federal agencies like the Department of Education. He is also pro-Trump, although he is not endorsed by Trump. But he has won the endorsement of Speaker of the U.S. House Mike Johnson, former Colorado Gov. Bill Owens and the editorial board of the Colorado Springs Gazette.

If Jeff Crank can be considered “Trump light,” his opponent Dave Williams can be considered “Trump ultra.” Former President Trump, the National Rifle Association, and Republican maverick Vivek Ramaswamy have all endorsed Dave Williams, as have the Colorado Republican Party, Colorado U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, and Florida U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz.

Dave Williams graduated from the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs (UCCS) and served in the Colorado state legislature before being elected chair of the state Republican Party. He has been an executive for several years in a business owned by his in-laws. He ran a losing race against Rep. Lamborn in 2022.

Williams is proud to be running as the “America First” candidate. He won a big majority at the Republican nominating convention. He says Trump won the 2020 election, and he says Trump is not a convicted felon.

Williams is against abortion at all levels of government. He opposed military aid to Ukraine, saying we must protect our own southern border with Mexico first. He has angered people in his own Republican Party with his anti-gay and anti-lesbian statements.

Both Williams and Crank emphasize their religious beliefs. Williams seems to be running as a Christian nationalist. Crank surprised people at a recent television debate by wearing a red, white and blue Christian cross in his suitcoat lapel, perhaps sensing he needed to assure evangelicals he could be counted on. Both are appealing to evangelicals. Williams and Crank are also each homeschooling advocates.

To date the campaign between them has been hard fought. Williams and Crank have called each other liars and have “trash talked” in debates. Crank accuses Williams of not being reliable on keeping the Space Command here in Colorado Springs. Williams accused Crank of leaning in favor of Nikki Haley for the 2024 Republican nomination for president rather than Donald Trump. Both candidates deny all these assertions.

Meanwhile the Democrats are having their own nominating contest.

River Gassen, who earned an undergraduate and master’s degree from the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs, has been a research and lab assistant at the university. She is running as a mainstream Democrat, emphasizing the importance of reproductive rights for women, climate change, housing availability and public education.

Gassen has not held elected office and appears to be a newcomer to campaign politics. She has been endorsed by the local Young Democrats and a few of the Democratic candidates running for state legislature. She also finished first in the voting for the Democratic nomination for 5th Congressional District at the Democratic Party nominating assembly. Her campaign materials are unclear about her employment history.

The other Democratic Party contender has a great Republican name. He is Joe Reagan, but no relation to Ronald Reagan.

Joe Reagan is a U.S. Army veteran and a graduate of the Army’s Ranger Program. He served two tours in Afghanistan. He was awarded a Purple Heart and a Bronze Star for his service. He later specialized in military intelligence work.

Reagan graduated from Norwich University, a venerable military college in Vermont. He earned an MBA (Master of Business Administration) from the University of Virginia and has been a consultant to various nonprofit groups such as Easter Seals, veterans’ groups and tech firms.

He favors reproductive rights for women, upgraded border security, and public education. His policy answers are nuanced and analytical when it comes to support for Ukraine and U.S. border security.

Reagan says he did not plan on going into politics, but his military service and work with veterans inspired him to run for the U.S. House of Representatives. He emphasizes he will be a bipartisan U.S. representative and would be especially eager to assist our military veterans. He notes he is the only veteran running for this seat and is a “Big Tent” Democrat.

Joe Reagan has been endorsed by the Welcome PAC, an interest group that raises money to encourage centrist Democrats to run for Congress. Welcome PAC has pinpointed Joe Reagan as a potential surprise candidate who could pull an upset over a conservative pro-Trump Republican.

If Jeff Crank wins the Republican primary, he is likely to win Colorado’s 5th Congressional District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November general election.

If Dave Williams wins the Republican nomination, the moderate Democrat and U.S. Army veteran Joe Reagan has a chance of making it a competitive race. Some Democrats say a Williams nomination would be “a gift” because of Williams’s undeniably close connection to Donald Trump and Trump’s “America First” nationalism.

These Democrats argue Democrats plus unaffiliateds might join with anti-Trump Republicans to defeat Republican nominee Williams and elect Reagan.

The deadline for returning mail-in ballots in the primary election is Tuesday, June 25.

Tom Cronin and Bob Loevy are columnists who write about Colorado and national politics.