With Christmas behind us, it’s time to turn our attention to New Year’s. Don’t be fooled by the chubby cherubs in diapers wearing a sash proclaiming 2023 – they may not be your friend despite their winsome smiles. If you’ve been thinking next year will be your year, you may wish to reconsider.

Though the economy appears to be running somewhat warmer than expected and recession is itself receding as an imminent threat, there’s still much that might go wrong. Inflation could just be taking a breather. It seems advisable to tread softly and walk slowly through the doorway into 2023. Better to be quiet and speak only when spoken to. Don’t attract attention. Best not to touch anything as well.

What may go wrong? The list is long, starting with what will prove a noisy pursuit of the career criminal recently departed from the White House. Gerald Ford short-circuited any prosecution of Richard Nixon with a presidential pardon that substantially contributed to his later defeat by Jimmy Carter in 1976. There is zero risk Joe Biden will repeat this blunder. Prevailing wisdom is forming around the theory that future presidents should be taught a lesson regarding proper behavior and Donald J. Trump will provide the vehicle for this lesson. The caterwauling that will emerge from Mar-a-Lago will offer a continuing choral accompaniment throughout 2023. Order your earplugs.

Few professions are as quick to kick their wounded to the curb as politicians. Once assessed as fatally wounded, a feral scrum of Republican aspirants will step over the still twitching Trump corpse in pursuit of Ron DeSantis, who will surely be the first candidate to break from the pack. Don’t expect civility or courtesy. The election of 2016 taught Republicans common decency is for losers. The 2024 campaign will begin soon, and late-arriving candidates will find themselves stepping into a drunken bar brawl and insult fest. What this means for Mike Pence, who inexplicably thinks himself a viable contender, remains a mystery. And, through it all, the querulous Mr. Trump will lob attacks on the frontrunner-of-the-week. Little wonder our democratic allies question the health of American politics.

The international scene offers even fewer bright spots. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict promises to drag on forever, with the potential to explode into a regional, if not planetary, fracas. How long would we tolerate Russian participation in a rebellion underway next door in Mexico? The Monroe Doctrine would be dusted off and a declaration of war would rapidly follow. It’s rumored that Secretary of State Antony Blinken has threatened Putin’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, the use of a nuclear device in Ukraine would result in a prompt extermination of the Russian Army with NATO’s conventional weapons. Whether this is true, or not, the mere rumor it is the American plan has to make the Kremlin’s bowels quiver. Their performance to date has been pathetically weak and there are few doubts American arms are vastly superior to those of the Russians.

The re-ascension of Benjamin Netanyahu to power opens the possibility for a full-scaled conflict between Israel and the Ayatollahs. The Saudis and Emiratis are more than willing to look away while the Israelis obliterate the Iranian nuclear complex and savage its industrial infrastructure, including drone factories in the bargain. Listening to President Volodomyr Zelensky’s speech to Congress last week, we have at least one ally ready to cheer on a Jewish assault. There are times when the enemies of one’s enemies rationally become one’s newest friends. The chances that most of central Asia might go up in flames is certainly plausible. Meanwhile, several of the desultory disputes burning in Africa carry the potential to fully erupt while Western democracies are otherwise occupied.

It would be remiss of me if I failed to mention the disaster likely to unfold in Congress. This may, in fact, be the first political catastrophe of the New Year. Republicans hold a mere five-vote advantage in the House. Nancy Pelosi has been able to corral her majority when it shrank to as few as three members, but no one as politically skillful is resident in the Republican caucus. Two freshmen Republicans are already facing troubles that could lead to their ousters. Even if Kevin McCarthy manages to consolidate 218 votes for election as Speaker, he will remain hostage to the most extreme right rump within his majority. It’s difficult to see how he will survive for more than a few months. It is telling Senate Republicans were willing to handcuff their House colleagues by agreeing to a 2023 federal budget with the lame duck Democratic House majority. It’s even rumored Minority Leader Mitch McConnell suggested a two-year budget agreement in order to corral the Republican House crazies.

It’s hardly a time to strut boldly (don’t forget your mask!). Be both cautious and respectful.

Miller Hudson is a public affairs consultant and a former Colorado legislator.