Colorado Politics

ELECTION 2022 | A tale of two gubernatorial campaigns as Polis-Ganahl race nears finish line

It was the best of states, it was the worst of states, it was the age of economic recovery, it was an age of savage inflation, it was a campaign about accomplishments, it was a campaign about failures, it was the season of staying the course, it was the season of reversing direction – in short, the Colorado race for governor was as stark a choice, for better or for worse, as voters could want.

With less than two weeks to go before ballots are counted, Colorado’s major party gubernatorial nominees are making their closing arguments as their campaigns make their final push to the polls.

Both candidates are asking voters to render a verdict on the four-year record of incumbent Gov. Jared Polis, with the Democrat boasting that he’s steered the state through tough times and is poised to take on the demands ahead, while his Republican challenger, University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl, vows that she’ll undo the damage she blames her opponent for causing.

After more than a year of campaigning and millions of dollars in advertising amid a constantly shifting political landscape in the run-up to the midterms, when voters typically rebuke the party in power, the candidates are sticking to the messages they’ve been delivering from the start.

On the stump and in debates and forums, Polis describes the state he’s led as being on the rebound after a string of difficult years, including historically destructive wildfires, a global pandemic and the resulting battered economy, while Ganahl fires back that Colorado is “heading in the wrong direction” and credits Polis for policies she charges have made Colorado among the most dangerous and least affordable states in the union.

In a TV ad released this week, Ganahl makes her case at the proverbial kitchen table.

“Jared Polis likes to think he’s done a good job,” she says. “But here around the Colorado kitchen table, families are struggling to make the most basic ends meet. We can do better. The past few years have been really hard, and it’s time to begin charting a new path forward for everyone. I’m a mom, a business leader. This November, let’s choose to build a Colorado we can all be proud of. I’m Heidi Ganahl, running for governor of Colorado, and I approve this message.”

Polis is portrayed in one of his closing TV ads in a range of Colorado settings: farms, schools, an outdoor trail, a suburban subdivision, in a helicopter overlooking wildfires.

“As governor, on good days and our toughest days, I’ve always known how lucky we are to be Coloradans,” he says. “So I’ll never stop working to protect our freedoms and make living here more affordable. From preventing crime to free kindergarten to improving our schools, we’re building a better Colorado for generations to come. There’s more to do to make housing more affordable and make all our neighborhoods safer. I’m Jared Polis. And I’m asking for your vote to keep moving Colorado forward.”

If elected, Ganahl will be the first woman to serve as governor of Colorado, the first state in the country to grant women the right to vote by referendum and the first state in the world to elect women to a legislative body. Four years ago, voters made Polis the state’s first Jewish governor and the first openly gay candidate to be elected governor anywhere in the country. He was also the first sitting member of the U.S. House elected governor of the state.

Polis, 47, a former five-term congressman from Boulder, took office four years ago in a Democratic wave election at the same Democrats won every statewide office on the ballot and secured majorities in both chambers of the General Assembly. He served one six-year term on the State Board of Education before his election to the U.S. House.

Ganahl, 56, a Lone Tree resident and a University of Colorado regent at-large since 2016, is the only Republican to hold statewide office in a state whose voters have been trending toward Democrats for more than a decade.

Both candidates are wealthy entrepreneurs. After launching an internet service provider while still in college, Polis later struck it rich with an online greeting card business and a flower delivery service, while Ganahl founded the largest national chain of dog daycare centers.

By nearly every objective measure, Ganahl is the clear underdog.

Coloradans have a habit of reelecting their governors and haven’t handed a defeat to an elected incumbent since the early 1960s. In the last 50 years, voters have only elected a single Republican governor, Bill Owens, who served two terms from 1999-2007, while five Democrats – including Polis – have won election to the office 10 times.

Although both candidates are chipping in money to their own campaigns, Polis’ level of self-financing dwarf’s Ganahl’s, with at least $11 million in contributions compared to the $1.3 million she’s loaned her effort.

Polis, who caps individual contributions to his campaign at $100 per year, has raised roughly an additional $750,000 for his reelection bid and spent $10.1 million through Oct. 12, according to the most recent campaign finance reports. Ganahl has raised a little over $2 million and spent close to $3 million  through Oct. 12 in her run.

Ganahl emerged in June with 54% of the vote in an expensive primary against former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez, an underfunded candidate who was making his second run for the office, despite millions of dollars in spending by Democratic groups to promote Lopez among GOP primary voters as “too conservative” for the state. The spending was an attempt to sway Republican primary voters to vote for the candidate perceived as less likely to win votes from moderates and unaffiliated voters, so presumably easier for Polis to defeat in November.

Polis has led Ganahl in every publicly released poll in the contest – by double digits in all but a couple instances – and most national election forecasters rate the race as solidly Democratic.

Democrats outnumber Republicans among Colorado’s active, registered voters by about 110,000, though both major parties take a backseat to unaffiliated voters, who make up a plurality of the state’s 3.7 million voters and have leaned toward Democrats in statewide elections for the better part of a decade.

Ganahl is hoping to buck that by hammering the incumbent on the high cost of living and Colorado’s rising crime rate, which has outpaced the national surge in some categories.

“Jared wants you to reelect him to try to fix the problems that he created,” she said during a recent debate in Colorado Springs. “Polis is the problem. Crime, drugs, inflation – when you vote, hold him accountable. And when I’m governor, I expect you to do the same with me. I’m a problem solver. Not a politician, but I will get the job done.”

Added Ganahl: “I will not stand by and watch our beautiful state, my kids’ state, destroyed. As your governor I’ll put law and order leadership in charge. I’ll clean up our streets, keep repeat offenders in jail, cancel our sanctuary status and block the flow of fentanyl into Colorado.”

In keeping with the three-pronged midterm platform unveiled by state Republicans more than a year ago, Ganahl has also made education a centerpiece of her campaign.

“I just want to make sure that we fix these huge problems that we’re facing right now like skyrocketing crime, out of control inflation and, most of all, make sure our kids get back on track,” she said at the same debate. “So, how do we do that? Well, we go all-in on school choice – we don’t just talk about it. We don’t just nibble around the edges. We actually approve charter schools.”

Polis disputes his opponent’s characterization of Colorado’s predicament.

“Look, this is fundamentally a decision about moving Colorado forward,” Polis responded during the same debate. “I don’t even recognize the dystopian version of wherever she lives.”

Polis maintains that he’s fulfilled the promises he made in his run for the office four years ago, including leading on legislation to provide full-day kindergarten without charge to parents, cutting the cost of some health insurance premiums, capping the cost of insulin, and moving the state toward aggressive climate goals by reducing dependence on fossil fuels.

Polis also crows that under his administration Colorado has eliminated personal property taxes paid by businesses, boosted the state’s earned income tax credit and child tax credit, cut the assessment rate on homes as home values have soared, and eliminated state taxes on social security payments to older residents.

In a second term, Polis said, he has his sights on “keep[ing] Colorado moving forward,” invoking his campaign’s unofficial slogan.

“We have one of the strongest economies in the nation – growing good jobs, making sure that people have access to all the great opportunities the private sector has to offer,” he said. “Two, we’re going to tackle the high cost of housing. We’re going to make sure that we can have more housing close to our jobs, reducing commute time and traffic and lowering costs. And three, we’re gonna make Colorado one of the 10 safest states in the country with investment in more and better policing, with tougher penalties and preventing crime before it happens.”

Voters began receiving mail ballots last week and have until 7 p.m. Nov. 8 to return them to county clerks. In-person voting at vote centers in every county opened this week.

Republican Heidi Ganahl, left, and Democratic Gov. Jared Polis address supporters as Colorado’s 2022 gubernatorial race enters its final two weeks. Ganahl spoke at a rally at a campaign office in Thornton on Oct. 23, 2022, and Polis spoke at a rally at a park in Denver on Oct. 22, 2022.
(Ernest Luning/Colorado Politics)
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