COVID-19 cases in the Denver metro have begun to steadily decline as the omicron wave begins to recede from the more populated areas of Colorado, mirroring an overall trend statewide.

After surging to record-breaking highs earlier this month, cases in Denver have dropped more than 30% in recent days, according to the city’s Department of Public Health and Environment. Denver’s daily average of new cases nearly hit 2,000 on Jan. 10 – more than Colorado averaged as a state between mid-January and early September of last year. But it’s dropped steadily since, validating what experts said would be omicron’s likely course: a steep rise followed quickly by a steep decline.

A spokeswoman for the city’s health department confirmed that officials here believe omicron’s peak has passed, though rates remain higher than at any point before this wave.

The leaders of the Tri-County Health Department, which oversees Adams, Arapahoe and – in some ways – Douglas County, also believe the peak has passed. John Douglas, the executive director of the agency, said those counties’ high point was Jan. 11. 

“Since that day, the number of cases (reported daily) has fallen just above 40% in Adams and Arapahoe … and about 30% in Douglas,” he said Monday afternoon.

Positivity rates – tracked by public health officials as an early sign of a wave continuing or subsiding – have also fallen to varying degrees in those counties, Douglas said.

Denver, as well as Adams and Arapahoe counties, has an indoor mask mandate still in effect. It was set to run through Jan. 3, but it was extended when omicron burst through Colorado. It was extended another month, to go through Feb. 3.

Courtney Ronner, spokeswoman for the Denver health department, said in an email that it was “too soon to say” what would come of the face-covering requirement, but that the agency would “likely have more information next week.”

The order in Adams and Arapahoe counties was put in place by Tri-County’s Board of Health. Douglas said health officials will be discussing the order soon; the expiration of it is pegged to hospital capacity, but Douglas said the agency and its board may revisit those metrics “if it looks like there’s a lag while everything is getting better” and consider an “early cessation.”

Tri-County also has a masking requirement for schools, which is set to expire at the end of this month. Douglas said officials have been talking with superintendents and that Tri-County would likely extend the school requirement through the end of February. From there, he said, it could be renewed for March or ended earlier, at some point in February.

Peak or not, Ronner warned that case levels in Denver remain elevated, still at their highest levels of any pre-omicron point in the pandemic. She and Douglas both urged people to continue being careful to keep the wave from rising back up again.

“Overall it is great news that rates are decreasing,” Ronner said, “but Denver residents should still remain vigilant about wearing face coverings in indoor public settings, getting vaccinated and boosted if they are able to, and following isolation and quarantine recommendations.”