As unpredictable as much of politics happens to be, some things are as dependable as the sunrise. The recurrent populist primary challenges to reliably conservative Republican incumbents in safe Republican districts, for example.

Enter young Lauren Boebert from Silt, the latest contestant to try and depose Scott Tipton from his congressional seat in Colorado’s 3rd CD, and who is just charming and organized enough to hand the Democrats a gift-wrapped House seat.

I happened to meet Boebert several years ago. She has much going for her — she is bright, attractive, charismatic, by all accounts a devoted Christian; a wife, mother of four, and a successful business owner. She is proprietor of the safest restaurant in America — Shooters Grill, where she and any employee who wishes openly carries a firearm. It was a practical decision on her part, arrived at out of concern for her safety and that of her employees, and which garnered national and even international attention for her restaurant (which also happens to serve excellent food, by the way.)

She most recently gained national attention for publicly calling out then-presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke for his position on gun ownership, telling him pointedly at a campaign rally in Denver that she did not consent to his plan to disarm her and her employees. It was a heartwarmingly courageous David-and Goliath moment, to be sure.

Which makes her current, misguided primary endeavor all the more disappointing.

She is right about a couple of things. There is a stewing battle for the nation’s soul, with the Bernie Sanders/AOC Democratic Socialist-style leftists on one side, and people like her and her neighbors on the other.

But the guy she is running against, Scott Tipton, is on her side. If you are worried about an external threat, why start a civil war with your allies?

That is the central, and perplexing, question shrouding Boebert’s effort: What has Tipton done, or not done, to invite insurrection? He has, after all, been a consistent, and thoughtful, conservative voice on any given issue. In many ways he is the polar opposite, both philosophically and temperamentally, of Alexandria Ocasia-Cortez, against whom Ms. Boebert ostentatiously claims she is effectively running. While AOC prattles on about — I don’t know, the police as an apparatus of capitalist exploitation and bourgeois class oppression, or whatever claptrap occupies her muddled daydreams, Tipton has quietly gone about the work of representing his district and keeping the federal government at bay. Like, for instance, passing the 2016 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, among other things.

Speaking of AOC, Boebert’s assertion that she is the “conservative AOC” is interesting, if somewhat disturbing; I, for one, do not want a “conservative AOC” any more than I would desire a “conservative Mao Zedong.” AOC is a caricature, whose benighted, revolution-tinged, ideological bombast is absolutely antithetical to the tenets of conservatism. Let the other side have her.

Boebert is reminiscent, in ways both good and bad, of Sarah Palin — young, smart, successful, full of potential and probably underestimated, but woefully unprepared for the position she seeks. She recently was a guest of 9 News’ Kyle Clark, and her performance was evocative of Palin’s interview with Katie Couric.

Clark pressed her, quite fairly, on the central question; how does she differ, policy-wise, from Tipton? On what issue do their respective philosophical positions diverge? She could not answer.

She did say that she would “check off every conservative box”; oh, if it were that simple. Example: she vaguely cited, curiously, Tipton’s alleged failure to vote for defunding Planned Parenthood (curious, as Tipton has consistently voted to do so). In the unlikely event she happens to get elected, let’s say a Defense Authorization bill appears before her and includes a provision to defund Planned Parenthood — a provision that is then negotiated out in exchange for full funding of some critical military need (an F-35 upgrade, or improved body armor maybe). Does congresswoman Boebert vote against funding for our military (one of the few legitimate roles of government) because it represents a concession to Planned Parenthood? Which box does she check?

The Democrats, of course, are loving this. Boebert stands little chance of winning a general election in a district as diverse as CD3, even if she happens to defeat Tipton in the primary; and just by her challenge, she forces him to spend money and political energy which ought to be devoted to maintaining the seat as a bulwark against the threat that she, and millions like her, reasonably fear.

Boebert would be better advised to run against a Democrat — Diane DeGette, perhaps (one need not live in the district one wishes to run in). It would be just as quixotic, but would provide a platform for her message (which needs desperately to be heard in Denver) without risking the harm her primary run could do to her cause, and, ultimately, the country.

Kelly Sloan is a political and public affairs consultant and a recovering journalist based in Denver.