Proposition CC to allow Colorado to hold onto TABOR tax refunds was finished early when Republicans, who couldn’t get a legislator recall done, found they could pour bad joo joo on the tax initiative. El Paso County went all-in to reject the proposition, with a 40,000-vote emphatic advantage to the No’s. Most of those ballots came in the first week of the election.

Prop CC lost almost everywhere except Denver and Boulder Counties and a swatch of rural population along the western side of the state. Most critically, it lost, as usual, in Jefferson and Arapahoe Counties, the linch pins of all political decisions in the state that lean left or right.

Proposition DD, which was narrowly passing Tuesday night, surely rode the wave of pro-DD ads that must have hit those 21-44 age unaffiliated (UAF) Colorado men who love to bet on sports at least once a week, according to US Bets. Over 113,000 UAF men between age 18-44 voted in this election, compared to 90,000 Democrats and 71,000 Republicans in the same age group. Does anyone think that so many youngish UAF males voted to support water projects?

In the future, every anti-TABOR tax initiative should be attached to some sort of “sin” tax to give it a chance of winning. Coloradans supported its lottery for environmental projects. Sports betting should barely cross the finish line giving tax dollars for water. Marijuana dollars go to school capital projects. Is there any tax option left to bet on or ingest that can help alleviate the $9,000 pay gap between what teachers earn, on average, and what the average Coloradan takes home in their paycheck?

The current era in Colorado voting shows how a new trend has arrived. UAF voters, in the past, lagged the parties at election time. But that norm no longer holds. UAFs represent 40 percent of registered voters, and with the right issues on the ballot, they will turn out. This year, UAFs matched Democrats in turnout. Republicans, the minority party, exceeded Dems and UAFs in turnout by 60,000 votes, typical of off-year TABOR elections. But that advantage won’t hold up over time.

Gender gaps, evident since 2016, continue to manifest among voters. Dem women voted about 70,000 more ballots than Dem men. UAF men voted about 18,000 more ballots than UAF women. Republican men and women turned out at roughly the same numbers.

Just as telling for the state’s political future is the number of voters in the 18-44 range who turned out. UAFs dominate both parties with this cohort, about 23,000 more than Dem voters and over 60,000 to GOP voters. These numbers essentially damn both party establishments, as active younger voters are choosing not to engage in traditional political labels.

Jefferson County is often a bellwether. This year, Jeffco resoundingly defeated Prop CC and its own county de-brucing measure. It firmly supported Proposition DD. The school board election split between a union-supported winner, eponymously named Stephanie Schooley, and a conservative winner, Susan Miller.

Democratic-leaning Arapahoe County, another bellwether, supported gambling Proposition DD and defeated the anti-TABOR Proposition CC. Predominantly Republican Douglas County supported DD and canned CC.

These results leave Colorado politicos in murky waters. Here are some inferences. Republicans can dominate tax issues not related to sin taxes in off-year elections when Democrats tend to vote in lesser numbers. UAFs may lean slightly to the left related to taxing, as they supported Prop DD, but that’s not sufficient to offset a big GOP turnout in support of TABOR in off years. The GOP turnout edge in 2019 won’t offset the Dem registration advantage in 2020 related to presidential, U.S. Senate, and state legislator candidates.

For TABOR reform activists to have a chance in 2020, they need to start their persuasion efforts more than four weeks before the election. They should focus on Dem and UAF voters 18-44 who weren’t born or were very young when TABOR passed in 1992. After all, it’s their little children in public schools now who will be most affected by the tax stranglehold that TABOR imposes on the state’s future.

Paula Noonan owns Colorado Capitol Watch, the state’s premier legislature tracking platform.