Economic good times pump up Colorado budget forecast
The good times keep rolling in Colorado, exceeding the expectations of state budget analysts, according to the economic projections released by the Governor’s Office Thursday.
Tax collections beat the quarterly forecast in June by $103 million, almost 1 percent, according to preliminary numbers. Now the state’s experts think the current fiscal year that began July 1 could grow by an extra 2.5 percent, or $303.2 million. That growth includes $44 million from the collection of state sales tax from online retailers, which begins this month.
Analysts also expect the budget that takes effect in July 2019 to grow by $390 million, or 3.1 percent.
The Governor’s Office, in a press release, characterized the state’s economic growth in the first half of this year as “robust and widespread across all industries and most regions, while wage growth has risen above inflation in recent months.” Notably, the oil and gas industry has bounced back from a downturn and is pumping money into the economy.
That’s good news for Gov. John Hickenlooper, who took office in 2011 as the state struggled back to its feet from the recession. Hickenlooper has lead Colorado into an economic boom, just as he forms a political action committee this week to raise his national profile for a potential presidential run.
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“Time and time again, Colorado’s economy has been recognized as the strongest economy in the country,” Hickenlooper said in a statement Thursday. “Current wage growth and low unemployment is fueling that. Still, we are mindful of market forces that could quickly impact our success. That’s why it’s been critical for us to more than triple our reserves over the past seven years.”
The state’s rainy-day fund is already about $556 million above the legal requirement of 6.5 percent of spending in last year’s budget. Lawmakers last session passed Senate Bill 276 to raise that requirement to 7.25 percent. The bipartisan bill was sponsored by four members of the legislature’s joint budget-writing committee, including Rep. Dave Young of Greeley, the Democratic nominee for state treasurer.
While the extra revenue will push well beyond the spending cap that triggers refunds under Colorado’s Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, not everyone will get the break. Last year’s refunds will support property tax exemptions for seniors and disabled veterans.
Overall, however, growth in the labor force was slower this year, which, along with an expensive, tight housing market, could hurt growth in the next few years, according to the Governor’s Office.
“While today’s revenue forecast is good news, in the coming legislative session lawmakers will have to continue to make prudent choices about planning for the future,” Carol Hedges, executive director of the left-leaning Colorado Fiscal Institute, said in a statement. “We need to keep paying back what the state borrowed from our public schools during the recession, stay vigilant in keeping costs of higher education affordable for Colorado families and focus on setting more aside to make sure we don’t have to make drastic cuts when the next recession comes. We look forward to that conversation.”


