Should Senate Bill 1 reach the governor’s desk sometime in the next week or so, it (and its sponsors) will have accomplished something that hasn’t happened since 2014: a top priority bill actually making it all the way through the General Assembly.

Over the past nine sessions, half of the bills identified as the number one priority for the ruling party in each chamber – and every one of those bills from 2015 on – wound up in the trash can by session’s end. Only twice in the last nine years has the top priority bill of one chamber or the other made it to the governor when the General Assembly is under split control.

The best bet for a number one bill to make it to the governor is when the House and Senate (and governor’s mansion, for that matter) seems to be when one party is in control of everything. That’s not always a prescription for happy voters, since the last time that happened, in the 2013-14 sessions, two Democratic senators were recalled and a third resigned to avoid a recall.

But as far as top priority bills go, six of the 18 bills identified as the top priority and that have been signed into law took place in three of the four years when Democrats controlled the House, Senate and the governor’s office: 2010, 2013 and 2014.

Since 2014, however, top priority bills have been flamed out, and its especially bleak for House bills. Democrats have controlled the House since 2015 but not one of the bills identified as leading the agenda have made it to the governor’s desk. It’s not a whole lot better in the Senate, with this year’s Senate Bill 1 the first contender in five sessions with a chance of winning approval from both chambers.

In six of the last nine sessions, the House and Senate have been under split control: 2010-11, 2012-13, and the last four sessions beginning in 2015.

The two that have made it under split control:

As a result, some of the bills that have been tagged as number one end up more successful as message bills than having a good chance of becoming public policy. In the past several years, that’s been bills dictating contractor preference for hiring, family leave (two different versions), regulatory reform, early childhood education funding, and refunds of excess state revenues. As in, message bills, intended to show the base that lawmakers are working on their priorities, even if those bills don’t have a chance of making it through the other chamber.

Should this year’s Senate Bill 1 make it to the governor, it will be the exception, rather than the rule. That rule is that when the General Assembly is under split control, the top priority bill is more likely than not going to be a goner.

And if control of the House and Senate stays the same past this November, a word to the wise: if you’re the lawmaker asked to carry Senate Bill 1 or House Bill 1001 in 2019, caveat emptor.