Harber: Do DC insiders have it all wrong about Hillary’s veep choices?

It is fascinating to watch the myopia and silliness of political “experts” as speculation swirls about presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s selection of a running mate.
Secretary Clinton’s top priority will be selecting someone who would be an excellent president in the event she couldn’t serve. Having been in the White House as first lady for eight years followed by her stints as a U.S. senator and then the nation’s secretary of state, Clinton understands the importance of her selection. Many analysts seem to ignore this most important criterion.
Many of these analyses blindly fail to ignore what the Democratic nominee’s critical needs are and reveal a surprising naiveté.
A recent example is the supposed “Cheat Sheet,” compiled by NBC News, which posited the top six veep candidates. The list included, in order, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, HUD Secretary Julian Castro, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Labor Secretary Tom Perez and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Even Julia Louis-Dreyfus, HBO’s Veep, would be politically superior to all but one of these candidates.
Brown is a non-starter because, as was acknowledged by the “experts,” Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a Republican, would get to appoint his replacement, switching a Democratic seat in the Senate to the GOP. Given just the upcoming battles over as many as four Supreme Court Justice vacancies in the next eight years, it makes no sense to even consider Brown, despite the fact Ohio will be a pivotal battleground state and Brown could help Clinton win it. (He’ll help her do that anyway.)
Castro is touted as a way to attract Hispanic voters, but this makes no sense because presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump is doing that for Clinton. Given Hispanics’ attitudes towards Trump, Castro is likely to add very few votes to Clinton’s total. He is attractive as a VP pick in other ways but is unlikely to have much of an electoral impact.
Klobuchar would be an impressive choice but also would add little to the ticket. If Clinton can’t already get the vote from women motivated by the historic nature of her candidacy, adding Klobuchar won’t help. Klobuchar’s state already will support Clinton, so she offers little help in that respect.
Perez is in the same position as Castro. While he, too, would be an excellent choice in other respects, the idea he somehow would marshal the Hispanic vote is nonsensical only because whatever Perez could do will be dwarfed by Trump’s impact on that segment of the electorate.
Warren, too, would add little to the ticket. She’s from a state which will go for Clinton anyway and, although she is the darling of the Bernie Sanders element of the Democratic base, her ability to motivate Democrats who felt the “Bern” would be insignificant compared to how those activists ultimately will be motivated by Trump. Plus, due to her extraordinary financial expertise, Warren’s role in the Senate could be huge in the event Democrats gain the majority.
Kaine is the best choice from the “Cheat Sheet” because he has a good relationship with Clinton, has experience as a U.S. senator and governor, and would be seen as a good choice by centrist voters. This separates him in a positive way from those who are to the left of Clinton. He also should be able to help in an important swing state – his home state of Virginia.
Although Clinton will be under pressure from many within her party to appoint a very liberal VP running mate, she is smart enough to add someone to the campaign which will make her ticket more attractive to the voters she needs to woo – independent and unaffiliated voters,
Contrary to the opinions of many pundits, neither Clinton nor Trump actually needs to worry about their base. It’s not because either are so overwhelmingly popular with their respective parties. In fact, a record number of Democrats and Republicans will hold their noses when they cast their ballots. They will vote for their parties’ nominees because their distaste for the other party’s nominee is so intense that it obliterates any qualms they have.
All this means Trump should diversify his ticket in terms of gender and color. And it means Clinton needs to do the same, albeit in reverse. It may be one of the few times where being an establishment white male is an advantage in the Democratic Party.
