Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper has raised nearly four times as much as Bob Beauprez, his Republican challenger.

But the financial heft of the Republican Governors Association and Beauprez himself could render the incumbent’s fundraising lead moot.

In fact, outside spending by the RGA, the Democratic group Making Colorado Great and potentially others will likely ultimately overshadow spending by the two candidates.

“Given the pivotal position Colorado has in the 2016 presidential campaign, both parties see the governor’s race as part of that equation,” said former Colorado GOP chairman Dick Wadhams.

The big picture

Hickenlooper raised nearly $4.6 million in cash and in-kind contributions through Sept. 24, compared with about $1.2 million for Beauprez.

Hickenlooper also leads in spending, $4.1 million to Beauprez’s $1.4 million.

Part of Hickenlooper’s advantage is that he continued to raise money after his 2010 election. Through the end of 2012, he’d raised nearly $469,000. Through the end of 2013, when the GOP field appeared in a state of disarray, Hickenlooper’s take had grown to $1.5 million.

And meanwhile, much of Beauprez’s spending went toward winning a tough four-way June primary that saw outside groups funded by both Republicans and Democrats trying to influence the result.

Beauprez, a former GOP state chairman, congressman and 2006 gubernatorial nominee, was playing catch up when he announced his gubernatorial rerun in March. By that point, Hickenlooper already had more than $1 million in the bank.

After loaning his campaign $527,000 to win the primary, the question is whether Beauprez plans to fork over more cash.

The GOP candidate had $263,000 in the bank in the most recent reports to the Secretary of State’s office, compared with Hickenlooper’s $360,000.

But Beauprez has scheduled contracts for $1.5 million in TV ads through Sept. 26, a Colorado Public Radio analysis shows. That compares with $1.9 million in ads scheduled for Hickenlooper.

Wadhams said people shouldn’t read too much into Beauprez’s cash deficit.

“People forget that Bill Owens was outspent in 1998,” said Wadhams, who worked as Owens’ spokesman. “The funding disadvantage that Beauprez has is certainly a big factor, but it’s not the only factor.”

And it’s possible that Beauprez will put more of his money — earned in a career in development, dairy farming and banking — into this race.

“I think if he’s got it to spend, and this is close and resources are needed, it wouldn’t surprise me at all,” said Kyle Saunders, a political scientist at Colorado State University. “He can put in as much as he wants.”

The outside spending

The outside spending in the governor’s race may be almost as important as what the candidates spend.

Democratic Party Chairman Rick Palacio said the influence of outside groups in Colorado dates back to 2010 when the Citizens United case allowed nonprofit groups to raise unlimited money and avoid disclosure.

“Unfortunately it’s not a new thing and it’s not new to Colorado,” Palacio said.

This year, the outside money matters partly because of Hickenlooper’s vow to avoid going negative and partly because of Beauprez’s weak financial position after the primary.

Since he first ran for Denver mayor in 2003, Hickenlooper’s ad campaigns have set a quirky theme that avoided smearing opponents. Despite what is perhaps the toughest challenge he’s faced, the Democrat vows to continue a positive campaign in his first TV ads this year.

That’s where Making Colorado Great comes in. Led by Progress Now founder Michael Huttner, the group’s website features a laundry list of attacks on Beauprez. And the group has scheduled at least $4.4 million in ads to attack the GOP candidate.

Making Colorado Great’s money is coming from the Democratic Governors Association, several unions and some individuals.

There’s also a new group, Business Leaders Who Support Hickenlooper, formed after the most recent filing deadline.

On the other side is the Republican Governors Association. Its Colorado committee started out with $5 million, all donated by the national organization, with the potential for more.

The RGA started running ads critical of Hickenlooper in mid-August, including one featuring the governor shooting pool and drinking a beer with President Barack Obama. That group has $2.9 million in ads scheduled thus far.

Saunders said the governor’s race is mirroring the competitive race between Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Udall and his GOP challenger Rep. Cory Gardner.

“There’s nothing like a competitive election to bring out diverse interests,” he said. “When one side, especially when they smell an incumbent’s blood in the water and have a chance to flip a seat, you will see resources.”

But Palacio said the outside spending isn’t necessarily a good thing.

“I don’t think it’s a healthy thing for voters,” he said. “Colorado voters would prefer to hear messages from candidates that they’re choosing between rather than outside groups that don’t disclose where their money comes from.”

The big money

An analysis of contributions through Sept. 24 shows that each candidate’s party is kicking in. The Colorado Democratic Party donated $319,100 to Hickenlooper and the Colorado Republican Committee gave $141,870 to Beauprez.

Small donor committees donating to Hickenlooper include the Public Education Committee at $11,350, the Apartment Association of Greater Denver at $8,000, the COPIC insurance small donor group at $7,500, the Colorado Trial Lawyers at $6,575 and Professional Firefighters and Colorado WINS state employee committee at $5,000 each.

On the other side, Coloradans for Common Sense donated $2,500 to Beauprez. He’s also received the maximum $1,100 donation from a dozen business-related political action committees. They include AngloGold, Colorado Auto Retailers, the Colorado Restaurant Association, Associated General Contractors and a community banking PAC.

State employees have donated almost $42,000 to Hickenlooper, compared with about $3,100 to Beauprez.

None of Beauprez’s primary challengers — Tom Tancredo, Scott Gessler and Mike Kopp — have donated to the GOP nominee. Nor have any Republicans in Colorado’s congressional delegation. But former Gov. Bill Owens, who is on Beauprez’s finance committee, and former U.S. Sens. Hank Brown and Bill Armstrong have given Beauprez the maximum $1,100.Eight members of the Coors family donated a total of $8,000 to Beauprez and four members of the Anschutz family have donated a total of $4,400.

Some typical GOP donors — Liberty Media President Gregory Maffei and MDC Holdings Chairman and CEO Larry Mizel, for instance — got on the Hickenlooper bandwagon early. They haven’t given to Beauprez.

“Once somebody commits to a candidate, its kind of hard to change,” Wadhams said. “A lot of those commitments were locked in early. I bet there’s some buyers’ remorse.”

Rep. Jared Polis, D-Boulder, who sparred with Hickenlooper over oil and gas regulations hasn’t donated to the governor, though his mother, Susan Schutz, gave $1,100. Denver U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette and U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, originally appointed by Hickenlooper, both donated $1,100. DeGette donated to Hickenlooper in 2012, while Bennet donated in August.

And employees of Anadarko, Noble Energy and Encana, three energy companies involved in the fracking fracas, have donated more than $29,000 to Hickenlooper’s campaign. That’s part of his nearly $174,000 from mining and energy employees, compared with almost $46,000 the industry employees gave to Beauprez.

Other than those listing general business, retired or housewives, the Republican’s top employment category is the financial and investment sector at more than $87,000, while Hickenlooper’s top segment is the legal industry at $484,000.

Covering the bases

With Beauprez’s late entry to the race and a sense that the Republican field was in a state of disarray, some donors who might normally support a GOP candidate gave to Hickenlooper instead.

Now, some are also giving to Beauprez.

In all, about 70 people appear to have donated to both candidates, with 20 giving the maximum $1,000 to each.

For instance, several members of the Haselden family, which owns Haselden Construction in Centennial, are giving money to both candidates, with $6,600 to both Beauprez and Hickenlooper. Byron, James, Carleen, Lisa, Ed and Jennifer Haselden each gave $1,100 to both candidates.

Colorado Rockies owner Dick Monfort gave the maximum to both candidates, while his brother and fellow Rockies owner, Charlie Monfort, gave $1,100 to Hickenlooper and has yet to give to Beauprez.

Then there are those who appear to be sitting out the race thus far.

Some GOP stalwarts — businessman Ralph Nagel and Liberty Media Chairman John Malone, for instance ¬— haven’t donated to Beauprez or Hickenlooper.

“Why are those donors on the sidelines?” Saunders asked. “I’ve thought about this before, and I’m not really sure why. Maybe they’re waiting.”

The spending

Sixty percent of Beauprez’s total $1.4 million in spending occurred during the primary, and 62 percent of that came from the candidate’s loans to his campaign.

Meanwhile, by the end of the primary, Hickenlooper had spent $2.6 million, much of it on ad buys.

Reports indicate 59 percent of Hickenlooper’s spending has gone to advertising. Another 22 percent went to employees and consultants, while 15 percent went to fundraising. Blue West Media, a firm that schedules TV advertising, was the top biller at $2.4 million.

Other Hickenlooper consultants include :

Wilke Communications, a Maryland fundraising firm, was paid $239,441.

Laura Warren, Hickenlooper’s campaign finance director, received $175,341.

Putnam Partners, a Washington-based advertising production company, received $13,436.

Barbara Straw, the campaign compliance officer, received $98,151.

On Sight Public Affairs, a Denver public relations firm, received $62,215.

Almost 49 percent of Beauprez’s spending has gone to advertising-related expenses, with 19 percent spent to get on the primary ballot and 16 percent to staff and consultants. The campaign’s top biller is Strategic Media Services, a Virginia-based TV ad buyer, at about $662,800.

Other Beauprez consultants include :

Signature Gathering Co. of Oregon received $139,039 for petition signature gathering.Argos Colorado received $130,477 for petition signature work.

Dustin Olson, Beauprez’s campaign manager, received $46,934, while his company, Olson Strategies and Advertising, received $47,625. Those payments included money for staff, events, fundraising and other consulting.

Public Opinion Strategies of Denver received $37,000 for polling and data work.

Owens Public Affairs, the public relations firm owned by future Beauprez daughter-in-law Monica Owens, received $35,015.

The next filing deadline is Oct. 14.

“Money always makes a difference in an election,” Palacio said. “It helps get a candidate’s message out and it helps a candidate communicate with voters.

“It’s important to remember that Colorado is a swing state, and we are not safely in the red column or the blue column in any election.”

— sandrafish@comcast.net