A top election forecaster moved Colorado’s two most competitive congressional races a step in the Republicans’ direction this week, though there’s a good chance both districts’ prospects will evolve further in the three months before ballots are counted.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan project of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, nudged Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo’s bid for reelection in the 8th Congressional District from “leans Democratic” to “toss-up,” and changed the predicted outcome of the race to replace Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert in the 3rd Congressional District from “leans Repubican” to “likely Republican,” a step away from a safe seat.

While neither revision is momentous or surprising — both seats are classified in the same territory by Crystal Ball’s fellow national election analysts — the adjustments appear to reflect the results of Colorado’s June primary election more than any underlying shift in political currents.

As expected, Caraveo will defend the closely-divided 8th CD north of Denver against Republican challenger Gabe Evans, a state lawmaker, Army veteran and former police officer. Democrat Adam Frisch — making his second run in the Republican-friendly, Western Slope-based 3rd CD after nearly beating Boebert two years ago — faces first-time candidate Jeff Hurd, an attorney who has the full backing of the GOP establishment.

Boebert moved across the state earlier this year to a safe Republican seat, rather than face a rematch with Frisch, who spent 2023 crisscrossing the vast 3rd CD — covering more ground than Connecticut, it’s one of the largest districts in the country — and out-raising the incumbent by millions of dollars.

Caraveo and Frisch were unopposed for the Democratic nominations, while Evans and Hurd were the favorites in the GOP primaries but still had to get past Republican rivals more in tune with the party’s MAGA-aligned wing. Once that happened, political observers say, the contests took on a more predictable character, with the districts’ underlying fundamentals reasserting themselves.

Both Democrats headed into the summer with enormous cash advantages, but their GOP opponents appear to be making up ground since the primary — House Republican Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana headlined high-dollar fundraisers for each nominee in Colorado this week — and outside groups are already pouring millions of dollars into the districts.

The state’s six other U.S. House seats remained safely in their current partisan columns — including Boebert’s newly adopted 4th Congressional District — according to the Crystal Ball’s updated ratings.

At the same time, the Crystal Ball’s venerable prognosticators said it appears the GOP has a slight advantage of keeping its slim majority in the House of Representatives, though analyst Kyle Kondik acknowledged that the outcome in November is “very much up for grabs.”

Republicans control the House by a seven-seat margin heading into the election, meaning Democrats need to net just four seats to take control

“Our operating theory throughout this election season has been that the winner of the presidency probably will also win the House of Representatives majority,” Kondik said. “Because the House is so evenly divided, one would assume, in an era where ticket-splitting has been declining, that the presidential winner would provide enough down-ballot ‘lift’ to enable his or her party to also win the House majority.”

In the two Colorado races, that means Caraveo likely has to stay even with Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, who’s slightly favored to win her district. Frisch, on the other hand, would have to rely on a good share of Donald Trump’s voters crossing over to pick the Democratic congressional candidate in a district Trump is likely to carry by a decent margin.

Of course, all the national forecasters famously got Boebert’s race wrong two years ago, when there was near unanimity that it was a safe Republican seat — with only Sabato’s Crystal Ball breaking from the pack, calling Colorado’s 3rd CD a “likely Republican” district — leaving heads spinning on election night when Frisch held the lead. Days later, Boebert edged past her challenger, eventually winning, after a recount, by just 546 votes, in the country’s closest House contest.

Although not to the same degree, Caraveo also confounded some forecasters when she won election in 2022 by a still-miniscule 1,632 votes, when the Crystal Ball rated her race as “leans Republican,” and other analysts were split between suggesting the GOP had a slight advantage and calling it a toss-up.

Kondik holds out the possibility that the electorate could serve up some unexpected results nationally this year — like electing Donald Trump, while flipping the House to the Democrats — rather than voting the party line, as typically happens when prominent down-ballot races aren’t skewed by personalities, scandals, local issues or huge cash advantages.

“That has never happened in any presidential election cycle in the current two-party era, which dates back to right before the Civil War,” he noted. “That is not to say that it couldn’t happen — and, in fact, the circumstances of this particular election increase the likelihood of this seemingly bizarre outcome.”

Taking all the House races into account — and splitting the map’s 19 toss-up seats between the parties — Kondik says there’s a chance Democrats gain a single seat, leaving Republicans with an even thinner majority.

“Clearly, that’s right on the edge between a Republican and a Democratic House,” he concluded. “So, while these ratings do imply a small GOP edge, we don’t really see a clear favorite either way.”

It’s a remarkably static overall picture after what was surely one of the most tumultuous periods in recent American political history. Over a stretch lasting roughly five weeks, the electoral terrain heaved and churned on a seemingly daily basis — from President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate to Trump’s attempted assassination, followed by the Republican National Convention and Trump naming Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate, which were almost immediately upstaged by Biden’s decision to withdraw and endorse Harris, who consolidated support from Democrats in record time and appears to have pulled even with Trump in the polls.

The Democratic and Republican candidates in Colorado’s two marquee congressional races sounded like they’re taking the turmoil — and the Crystal Ball’s reassessment — in stride in comments to Colorado Politics that also previewed their fall campaigns.

“This district was designed to be competitive,” said Mary Alice Blackstock, Caraveo’s campaign manager. “Congresswoman Caraveo’s ability to build coalitions of grassroots support speaks for itself and is evident when looking at the support she receives from working families across Colorado’s 8th District and her current campaign warchest, which dwarfs that of her opponent.”

Added Blackstock: “Congresswoman Caraveo continues to deliver results for Coloradans — from lowering the costs of prescription drugs, to tackling the immigration crisis and defending reproductive freedom. This November, the people of Colorado’s 8th District will choose between a results-driven representative and a candidate who divides Coloradans with his extremist views.”

Evans agreed with the forecaster’s move but had a different take on the race ahead.

“The national pundits are acknowledging reality,” he said. “Coloradans are rejecting Yadira Caraveo’s open border, anti-jobs, and soft on crime policies. As a Hispanic military veteran, momentum is growing for my movement to bring common-sense change to Washington, DC.“

The Frisch campaign waved off the rating change as irrelevant.

“Adam is not concerned with what the talking heads say,” said Andy Bixler, Frisch’s spokesman. “This campaign is about the voters of CD3, who are sick and tired of partisan politics and who will reject Jeff Hurd because he is an out-of-touch corporate lawyer who has spent his career representing wealthy special interests and profiting off raising prices at the expense of working Colorado families.”

A Hurd spokesman said the Crystal Ball’s appraisal reflects the candidate’s experience on the campaign trail.

“Rankings such as these are important for the chattering class, but this reflects the honest truth we see every day on the ground here in western and southern Colorado,” said the Hurd campaign’s Nick Bayer. “Voters are fed up with the Democrats and their failed policies, whether that’s allowing a flood of crime and drugs across our southern border, or regulating Colorado energy out of existence — they want a serious and competent Republican in this seat.”

Mail ballots start going out to Colorado voters on Oct. 15 — in just over 10 weeks — and are due back by Nov. 5.

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