A diseased party versus an inept one | SONDERMANN
Indeed, politics in our two-party system is rather binary. Republicans selected their ticket and made their case over four celebratory days in Milwaukee immediately following the near miss attempt on Donald Trump’s life the previous weekend.
With a timeout in between for the Paris Olympics, Democrats will gather in Chicago a month from now. That interim will be filled with abundant angst at a minimum if not outright revolt and a call to central casting for a new batch of talent. More about all that shortly.
First to what we just witnessed: The GOP convention was presented as a unity fest though of a remade, narrower party. Those inside the hall certainly marched to the same Trumpian beat. But plenty who had long been mainstays at such Republican assemblies were nowhere near this arena, having been drummed out of the party or leaving of their own volition or just opting to stay far away.
There were no sightings of Liz Cheney or Adam Kinzinger or Ken Buck or Larry Hogan or George W. Bush or Wisconsin’s own Paul Ryan. Nikki Haley seemed about as pleased with her whereabouts as a Guantanamo prisoner.
The GOP they once championed is completely foreign to the Trump age. Instead, the likes of Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Colorado’s own Lauren Boebert held court in the presidential box. The opening pledge of allegiance was led by a Jan. 6 rally participant. Among the delegates were several who had been part of the Capitol mob or served as alternate electors, including four of the latter who were subsequently charged with fraud, forgery and conspiracy.
Read the party platform, all 16 pages of it, and try to find meaningful mention of Ukraine or the national debt. Or of the importance of peaceful presidential transitions.
On the subject of transformations, that of Trump running mate and heir apparent J.D. Vance speaks loudest. A mere seven years ago, Vance was a self-described “never Trump guy”, referring to Trump as an “idiot” and comparing him to Hitler. Soon Vance could well be sitting a heartbeat away.
I’m all for reflection and rethinking, but does any serious person think Vance’s changed tune was born out of much beyond political calculation and runaway ambition? Like many converts, Vance has taken it to an extreme, going beyond even Trump in his willingness to forget Ukraine, abandon Europe, bend the Constitution and forsake any claim to fiscal responsibility.
In Trump world, the overriding value is personal fealty, no matter how prostrating and unbecoming. By that measure, the Milwaukee hall was Trump’s for the taking. And he consumed it fully.
But enough about Republicans and what just went down. They had long ago ceded their party to Trump. His renomination was never much in doubt over the last year or more, save for a brief moment outside Pittsburgh.
Democrats, on the other hand, are in the midst of an historic political conundrum. Even the woeful Rockies had a better last month than Joe Biden.
The President’s complete fail at the late June debate took what had been a close race tracking slightly in Trump’s favor and handed Trump a significant working advantage.
Though Biden comported himself well following the Trump shooting, that shock only added to the sense of his rival’s inevitability. The incumbent’s inescapable frailty juxtaposed with Trump’s apparent strength, to go along with his stunning luck, further cemented the contrast. And the Covid diagnosis mid-week only deepened the political hole.
Biden’s public approval is holding steady in the 36 to 38 percent range, maybe approaching 40 on a good day. The last three presidents with such dismal numbers just months shy of election day were Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and Donald Trump circa 2020. All went down to defeat with only the Trump race being at all close.
Political experts regard reliably blue states such as Minnesota, Virginia, New Hampshire and New Mexico as now up for grabs.
Hear this: If such states are remotely competitive, no matter which way they eventually go, it means the real swing states in the Rust Belt plus Georgia, Nevada and Arizona are long gone for Democrats and Trump will win in a walkover.
In this era of party-line voting and minimal ticket-splitting, such a large defeat at the presidential level would translate to down-ballot losses in Senate and House races.
That is the Democratic worst-case scenario. Deference to the incumbent, good-ol-Joe, could cost them not only the White House but also control of either congressional chamber with which to counter a second Trump administration.
As it is, the Biden express is barreling down the road at all of 10 miles per hour while skipping all off-ramps. Immediately following the disastrous debate, I was among many to comment that the shame was not Biden’s. That aging thing happens to the best of us.
Though three weeks later, what started as conviction and honor on Biden’s part has turned to stubbornness, dismissal of reality and, worse, indication of a self-reverential “I alone” attitude usually associated with his opponent.
Had Biden’s debate freeze been at odds with prevailing perceptions, voters would have taken it as a data point to process with other inputs. However, in this case, the non-performance corresponded with what was already a hardened assessment of his diminishing capabilities. That is why the damage is irrecoverable.
Voters saw what they saw. It confirmed their fears. End of story.
If Biden saunters on, every public appearance will be a white-knuckle ride and every stumble will be headline news for days. There is no happy ending at the end of that road.
While Biden bears some culpability for this predicament, his handlers bear more and the Democratic Party shoulders ultimate responsibility. This is a nomination process, not a monarchal coronation.
With credit to those who have spoken up (including Colorado’s Michael Bennet, Brittany Pettersen and Jason Crow), too many Democrats have been too deferential or scared or tongue-tied.
On a local level, John Hickenlooper and Diana DeGette have been egregious examples, not surprising since neither is exactly famous for knowing when to step aside.
Before the Chicago convention or on the floor if need be, Democrats need to ask themselves an existential question. If I was to know beforehand what was to befall the Titanic, would I still sign up and get on board?
This is not just a test of the party’s political judgment, but also of its sincerity. Having preached to no end of the risks to our core democratic institutions posed by a Trump reinstatement, Democrats should be obligated to make the hard call required by that warning?
For months, the favorite candidate of most Americans has been neither Biden or Trump, but “anyone else.” With what is at stake, Democrats might want to answer that market demand.
Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for ColoradoPolitics and the Gazette newspapers. Reach him at EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann