I didn’t expect to be drafting my first 2024 column wondering whether it might be overtaken by the outbreak of a Middle Eastern conflagration, perhaps even a World War. We are living in perilous times. Even if we dodge a bullet this week, there’s always the following weeks. Closer to home, Congressional Republicans appear intent on shutting down American government this month together with impeaching someone, anyone, perhaps Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in lieu of the president, regarding immigration policies they have repeatedly proven unwilling to reform – all of which prompts me to consider the question: is U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert a serious person?

Merely having to proffer the inquiry provides the answer. Not only was she not a sponsor of one of the meager 22 bills adopted by Congress last year, but she has shown zero leadership on the very real challenges facing her constituents in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District. She was largely silent on the threatened collapse of the Colorado River compact and has failed to drive a single piece of legislation to floor passage during three years in Washington, D.C. She did, however, bleat constantly about the necessity of impeaching President Joe Biden. Even there, Republican leadership backed another member’s version of these appeals. And now, suddenly, Boebert has announced her intention to abandon the western slope voters who first sent her to Congress in favor of the 4th Congressional District, in turn embracing Colorado’s eastern plains.

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It was evident, even to the politically ignorant, Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch’s surprising near defeat of her re-election campaign in 2022 didn’t augur well for Boebert’s survival in 2024. It was also telling Frisch has raked in nearly three times as many contributions as the Boebert campaign. More revealing is a larger share of his haul originated with Coloradans – more than have contributed to Boebert’s war chest. Rumor has it internal polling shows she might not be able to win the primary election against Republican challenger Jeff Hurd, much less a general election contest with Frisch. It may seem the abandonment of her supporters in the 3rd District will damage Frisch’s hopes, but it’s unlikely they were popping any corks at Hurd’s office either.

On the Republican far right, Hurd is regarded as a RINO unwilling to follow MAGGAT lemmings down the yellow brick road to Trumpdom. Although time is short, it seems likely he will now have to fight off challengers from his right willing to jump into Boebert’s shoes, even if they require a write-in effort. For that matter, many Republicans may be willing to throw their votes to Frisch in November as a way of thanking him for having chased their pistol-packing angertainer away. Presumably Boebert’s theory of the case is the 4th District, with its 26% Republican performance edge, is a safer bet than the 9% lean in the 3rd. Of course, this requires a belief voters in the 4th will disregard her failure to keep western slope Republicans in her camp.

This is a dubious bet, at best. It’s not like it’s a secret Colorado’s 21st century Annie Oakley has a few screws loose. She offers two schticks in serious conflict with one another. The first is the dancehall tart who grabs you by the belt buckle at closing time and takes you home for the night. Brazen, to be sure, but not without its appeal. The other is the evangelical Christian mother of five who applauds the repeal of Roe v. Wade and urges us to believe God wants her serving in Congress. You can’t be both Mary and Mary Magdalene. Lauren will have to reconcile her split personality into a single entity. Tart or saint, which will it be? Not to forget, she already faces declared opponents promising to be even more slavish acolytes at the Trump altar than she – possibly splintering the right fringe primary vote.

Once upon a time, political parties enjoyed more muscular, although admittedly resented, leadership. Call them elites or bosses, they steered nominations. Leadership anointed preferred candidates and removed embarrassing incumbents. This enforced an uneven version of accountability. At the national level, former President Donald Trump demonstrated in 2016 the Republican establishment had become a hollow vessel. One would think Ken Buck and Cory Gardner could pull District 4 Republicans together and winnow the race against Boebert to a single opponent. Her support probably tracks with that of the former president’s, a solid 35% to 40% – a certain plurality victor with a half-dozen contenders. Dave Williams, the state Republican chair, will squeal like a mashed cat should they attempt such an intervention.

Democrats face a similar quandary. If they nominate a solid, serious candidate in the 4th District and Republicans select Boebert they could grab the seat for a couple of years before gravity returns it to the Republicans. Betsy Markey demonstrated this with her single-term victory over Marilyn Musgrave more than a decade ago. Containing its propensity for accommodating splinter candidates will prove a challenge for Democrats. Nonetheless, I can think of two Democrats who fit the bill, though I am sure there are others: former legislator and County Commissioner Sal Pace from Pueblo and District Attorney Henry Solano in Trinidad, each of whom I admire and respect. I can offer a slogan for their yard signs – “Why not send an adult to Washington?”

Miller Hudson is a public affairs consultant and a former Colorado legislator.