Colorado Politics

What we learned from the GOP primary debates | CRONIN & LOEVY

Tom Cronin and Bob Loevy

No one seemed to like the two Republican Party presidential primaries debates. One was held in Milwaukee and the other at the Ronald Reagan Library (near Los Angeles). Both were hosted by the Republican National Committee.

Anti-Trump Republicans were disappointed there was no alternative “breakout” Republican candidate to emerge from the debates. Still most analysts believe Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and former-Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina survived the debates and are ready to fight another day.

Supporters of Democratic President Joe Biden disliked the debates because most of the candidates blasted Biden’s border control policies and criticized him for inadequate economic, energy and China policies.

Supporters of former Republican President Donald Trump disliked how several of the debaters blasted Trump for contributing to the national debt and for botched policies on immigration and China when Trump was president.

But Trump supporters got some satisfaction Trump’s standing in the public opinion polls was not at all affected by the two debates. Well ahead in the polls for the party nomination for president in 2024, Trump declined to participate in the debates.

The debates were hard to watch. There was too much bickering and talking over each other and some derogatory comments. The moderators lost control at some points. Still, about 10 million people watched these early presidential primaries debates – though that is less than half of the viewers who watched as Taylor Swift cheered on the NFL’s Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday.

Policy critics lamented that none of the candidates outlined clear, philosophical, coherent and positive policy narratives. The culprit is that the debate format did not allow for more than a few sentences at a time for each candidate. The format also encouraged immediate, interrupting rebuttals. The candidates were not able to give detailed explanations of their ideas and policies.

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The second debate was ironic. The candidates were at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, but few of them appeared to be in Reagan’s league as a spokesperson for a national political party.

Five of the seven candidates are, or were, state governors. One (Tim Scott) is known primarily for his service in the U.S. Senate. The final one (Vivek Ramaswamy) is a fast-talking maverick businessman from Ohio.

U.S. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina had the most difficulty in the two debates. The much-liked and mild-mannered Scott was quiet and only spoke in general terms at the first debate. He faltered in the second debate by making vague references to legislation he sponsored while in the Senate.

And he looked mean-spirited and small trying to tear down his fellow South Carolinian – Nikki Haley.

As a legislator and not a governor, Tim Scott could not point to executive accomplishments. This made him less competitive in his messaging.

Former Vice President Mike Pence is the most experienced candidate. He was a long-time member of Congress, a former governor of Indiana, and served as Trump’s vice president.

Pence did not do well in the debates. He is obviously patriotic and earnest, yet he is also decidedly pious. He was so pious that he looked and sounded as though he was running for minister-in-chief instead of commander-in-chief.

Pence’s message is doubtless aimed at the many evangelical Christians who will be going to Republican presidential caucuses in Iowa. The result is a narrow, rather than broad, appeal.

Pence ducked several questions. He was also handicapped by having to defend the policies of the Trump-Pence administration while they were in the White House.

Pence also has to live with the weird reality that many of Trump’s Jan. 6, 2021 insurrectionists had a goal of “hanging” Pence.

Pence seemed tired, conflicted and in search of a political “lane” that doesn’t exist.

Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy was the “fresh” new face and in some ways one of the stars in the first debate. He is full of self-confidence, boastful of his business success and a full-throttle defender of capitalism, limited government and militarizing the southern border. He enjoys espousing contrarian ideas.

Ramaswamy was somewhat less brash in his second debate but obviously was resented by most of his fellow debaters. He praised Donald Trump as an excellent president who he would pardon if Trump is convicted of a federal crime.

Ramaswamy’s behavior prompts analysts to suggest he is running for a cabinet post in a second Trump administration.

Another previously unknown candidate is current North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. He was largely quiet in the first debate due in part to an athletic injury he suffered the day before that debate.

Burgum was more effective in the second debate, especially touting his successful executive leadership on education and energy policies in North Dakota. At times this former tech entrepreneur sounded like a familiar Reagan/Romney economic conservative.

Burgum’s chances seem slim because he has little name recognition and appears to be too new to national politics. But he probably did win enough notice in the second debate to be considered for a Cabinet position, such as energy or commerce, in a future Republican administration.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who ran for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, is a familiar face. He boasts of being the only candidate who was successfully elected twice in a strong Democratic state. He also boasted of being a long-time effective federal prosecutor.

Christie was a major supporter and frequent advisor to President Donald Trump – until he wasn’t.

Nowadays Christie is one of Donald Trump’s harshest critics. One of his main themes is Trump is “too dangerous to be president again.”

Christie knows he is an outlier in the Trump-dominated Republican Party. He is skipping the Iowa Republican caucuses and concentrating on doing well later in the New Hampshire Republican primary.

Christie styles himself as the “protest candidate.” That probably is not going to work. His sharp debating points and confrontational “attack-dog” style in these first debates did not help his cause.

The two candidates who were reasonably successful in the debates were Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

DeSantis is a Yale and Harvard graduate as well as an Iraq War veteran. He was a Florida congressman before twice winning the Florida governorship. He was not especially effective in his first debate but was stronger in debate two.

He is often described in the news media as “Trump without the baggage.” On some issues, such as abortion, anti-wokeism and using military at the southern border, he is more conservative than Trump. He is even willing to send troops into Mexico to lessen fentanyl production and illegal immigration into the United States.

DeSantis looked like he was going to be Trump’s principal rival. Trump has aggressively criticized DeSantis and tried to belittle DeSantis in the typical Trumpian style.

DeSantis fell in the national polls and lost some campaign donors, yet he has remained Trump’s chief rival. He is likely to come in second or at least third in Iowa and maybe also in New Hampshire.

Gov. DeSantis appeals to conservatives and comes across as a fighter for his principles. He jokes that Yale and Harvard failed to make him a liberal and that he became ever more conservative while attending those Ivy League schools. He says he volunteered for military duty in Iraq because of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C.

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who also was a two-term governor of South Carolina, did well in both of these early presidential primaries debates. She worked in Trump ‘s cabinet yet has successfully distanced herself from him.

One indicator of her success in the debates is Team Trump has stepped up its negative political attacks on her.

Haley was consistently able to answer questions. She was more effective than the other candidates in rebuttals. She appealed to traditional and moderate Republicans with her support for Ukraine and a more nuanced approach to abortion.

Haley was poised and especially effective countering observations or criticisms made by Ramaswamy and Scott.

Many commentators have concluded these two Republican primary debates have not made a difference in the larger race. But it is too early to conclude that. No one can say how Trump will deal with his many felony trials and gag orders.

There also is still a chance one or two more prominent Republicans may enter the race.

But the takeaway from these first two debates is Haley and DeSantis are still contenders. Pence, Scott, Christie, Burgum and Ramaswamy are less viable candidates.

Tom Cronin and Bob Loevy are news columnists who write about Colorado and national politics.

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