Twenty-four hours after the debate and but 11 days until the counting of ballots, let’s take stock by looking back to the Thursday night festivities and ahead to where this all stands.

A Friday morning headline from Politico perhaps summed up the debate with some precision. It read, “That was a pretty good debate. Who cares?”

This debate, unlike the abomination of the prior one, was a reasonably predictable, reasonably decent affair. Donald Trump heeded, at last, the voluble advice of his consultants to tone it down and display some minimal respect for debate rules. Both Trump and Joe Biden scored their points and comported themselves acceptably.

Nothing transpired in this encounter to move a confirmed Biden voter or a loyal Trump supporter. That, in itself, might be modest good news for highly anxious Republicans concerned that the political floor could have collapsed with a repeat Trumpian performance of crude, uncontrolled interruption.

But “good enough” does not do the trick for the candidate trailing as badly as Trump seems to be. The debate may have stopped some bleeding, but probably did not provide much by way of resuscitation. 

Back at the September debate, Biden was largely a non-factor. Which was fine for him as the storyline became almost entirely that of Trump’s demeanor. That, followed 48 hours later by Trump’s COVID diagnosis, turned a seemingly stable Biden lead into an advantage that seems to many unassailable.

This time out, both candidates landed some blows and both took some hits. Trump was far better just by being palatable and minimally presidential. But Biden was far better and occasionally even crisper as well. 

To the extent that the discussion is about COVID or character of even racial reconciliation, Biden is playing to his strengths. His obvious capacity for empathy suits the times. In juxtaposition, Trump’s self-professed comparisons to Abraham Lincoln and his self-reverential testimony to the purity of his racial thinking invite ridicule. Biden also wins on health care and climate change. Trump fares best when touting the pre-pandemic economy and, at times, in belittling Biden’s numerous decades on the Washington scene. 

Further, it seemed an unforced error on Biden’s part to speak quite so loosely about the role of the oil and gas industry, especially given the pivotal role of Pennsylvania and the fanciful hopes of Democrats for Texas.

But all that is commentary around the edges. The bottom lines, in my appraisal, are three-fold.

First, few votes changed as a result of this final meeting. Biden voters heard plenty to reinforce their conviction; Trump voters the same. Second, Biden entered that arena with a lead and every political advantage. A debate draw accrues to his benefit.

Third, the clock is fast running out and a huge share of total ballots are already cast via early voting. Well north of one-third of all anticipated votes were already in the bank prior to Thursday’s event. If the overwhelming polling consensus is to be believed (and some will choose not to, whether out of skepticism or denial), Trump will need a dramatic reversal among those voters still with ballots in hand.

Consider also that viewership of this second debate was no more than three-quarters of what it was for the much-hyped initial one. At least 18 million Americans who tuned in for the first debate found something else to do with their evening on Thursday.

Incumbent presidents get reelected when voters feel the country is headed in the right direction or, in some cases, when the election is framed as a choice and the challenger is found wholly lacking. In these COVID-ridden times, voters are anything but optimistic. Trump’s only viable path to a second term was to make this a choice election and disqualify Biden as a plausible alternative.

Instead, in what the history books will record as a remarkably undisciplined, tangent-chasing, self-absorbed, grievance-filled campaign, Trump has effectively made this a referendum on his leadership. In the current downcast context, that was always going to be an exceptionally problematic formula

Indeed, not a single vote has been yet counted. Nothing is for sure. Four years ago, Trump threaded the tiniest of electoral needles. But shifting from seamstress metaphors to those of the gridiron, a Trump victory will require not just a successful Hail Mary pass, but such a low-odds completion followed by the recovery of an onside kick followed by another Hail Mary touchdown. Not impossible, but quite improbable.

• • • 

Concluding briefly with a personal note, the normal practice would have been to assemble my thoughts into a quick-reaction column immediately after the debate. That was the case with the who-can-forget first debate at the end of September and was the plan again this Thursday night.

Unfortunately, life and fire – and this miserable year of 2020 – have their own dictates and put to rest the best-laid plans. Such was the case following the debate as we decided to take our temporary leave of Grand County. Which is why this column is 24 hours belated. To be clear, we are among the fortunate ones. Our mountain retreat near Tabernash is in the far reaches of a pre-evacuation zone. The prevailing wind is taking the mammoth East Troublesome fire away from us. Still, the fire is too close for comfort; the massive smoke plumes cover the horizon and are borderline apocalyptic; winds can shift, and we decided to take the advice we had pressed upon our kids in their younger years to most often err on the side of caution.

We are further fortunate in having a place in Denver to which to come. At this point, we have lost nothing – unlike so many others. Our prayers are with them and all who are in the line of these hellfires as well as all those on the front lines of fighting them. Godspeed.

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for ColoradoPolitics and the Denver Gazette. Reach him at EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann